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BREXIT results coincide with overnight pullback

June 24, 2016


1992, 1970, 1953-5       Support
2118-20, 2132-4            Resistance


S&P Futures: (2-3 days)- Look to buy into post BREXIT vote S&P near 1992 which is a 38.2% decline of the entire 4 month rally from February to June, which has occurred in the last six hoursUnder near 1971-2.  Oversold severely given post vote gap down in Global assets and likely to stabilize.


BBC and sky news have officially called the UK referendum in favor of BREXIT.. . the Pound Sterling, "Cable" has just had its LARGEST move on record.. down to 1.32 from 1.50.. down over 10.5%. the NIKKEI is lower by more than 1300 points or 8%. S&P futures are trading lower by 4% and DOW futures lower by more than 600 as of 12:08 am. Treasuries rallying hard, with 10-year yields down 14% to below 1.50 while 2 yr yields lower by 30%, at .54 bps and just yesterday were trading just shy of .80. a HUGE HUGE move- US Dollar index higher by a full 3% with DXY up by more than 2.55 to 96.087- a historic day of BREXILITY given this near certain BREXIT which throws most of the EU into turmoil potentially with others soon to follow- Gold higher by 50 but following the initial shock, GOLD likely to trade lower after things calm given the USD gains and commodities should also fall off- EURUSD is at 1.10. a clear break of a key trend which if holds would be very bearish for the Euro going forward- For equities given the recent strong breadth and acceleration in momentum, my thoughts are that Friday's selloff proves minimal and a buying opportunity given the amount of fear, For now though, globally most assets falling hard overnight



S&P's pullback has given back far more than expected, but then again, BREXIT possibilities were thrown by the wayside as markets rallied in a manner that would have made "BREMAIN" seem like a landslide.-  Key areas for S&P lie near 1992, or the 38.2% Fibonacci area of support of the entire four month rally from February, or below that near 1971



"Cable' Pound Sterling's drop erased the most on record as of early Friday, as the Pound was down more than 10% and gave back all the gains of the last few days, undercutting 09 lows in the process and getting down to the lowest since the mid-80's.  Intra-day charts are very oversold, but weekly/monthly suggest that additional losses could occur.



Pre-BREXIT decline, one bright spot concerns Thursday's move in the Semis.  To comment further on yesterday's Semiconductor thoughts, Thursday's SOX breakout is indeed quite positive for the sector and should allow for further gains in the weeks ahead to test and exceed 2015 highs.  For now, technically this remains in very good shape, but the BREXIT aftermath might lead to this pulling back to test early June lows.  For now, SOX remains attractive to buy dips on pullbacks Friday and next Monday.




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