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Technical analysis

Over 2709 caused a Squeeze for S&P; Tech still resilient while Financials stabilize

 Into mid-day, S&P getting over 2709 has provided a squeeze as prices got back into the prior consolidation.. And breadth about 4/1 positive is much better today than was seen yesterday on the pullback.  Smallcaps moving back to new high territory, TRAN also higher by 1.2% and Crude oil is snapping back 2.5% today-  Treasury yields at 2.85% not making the same progress as equities in regaining prior breakdown, but a near 2% rally back in Financials is helpful for markets today-  Energy leading , up nearly 3%, while Healthcare, Industrials, Staples and Real estate also rebound-  Overall, a very tricky tape in short run.  Tech has been resilient while FInancials have not- Both industrials and Transports have consolidated their breakouts over last 5 days, but failed to give back enough to think these groups have to move lower. The Dollar starting to retreat should be good for commodity based stocks, while Energy pullback got a bit ahead of itself and now trying to bounce-  Overall its worth being selective here as markets near the end of May, as June historically has been quite negative  in Mid-Term election years, the worst month of all 12..  Averaging -1.79% since 1950-   Whether or not markets are capable of following the same patterns that have taken place since February is unclear.  But we've seen a pronounced pattern of bottoming in early month, peaking in mid-Month and then selling off into end of month, in February, March, April and now May-  So watching carefully to see if this pattern repeats-  For now, being back over 2709 is a positive for today..  And this whipsaw in the last 48 hours has produced a few POSITIVES.. Like Healthcare Services & Device stocks today.. While other groups like FANG/Tech have ignored the decline altogether and remain an area to watch carefully into mid-June, as NASDAQ should have much more difficulty moving back to new highs than Russell 2k

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Tough to make too much of bounce just yet

Equities got all the way down to 2613 in S&P Futures before bouncing, but we’re still seeing breadth of 5/1 negative.. and volume is not as tilted to the downside.. so to argue a low is at hand, it should be good to see that capitulation in volume like what happened on Monday when TRIN got to 3.60 and fewer stocks hitting new lows. Overall, it’s tough to make too much of this bounce in the last half hour and S&P would need to get back over 2687, the highs from earlier.   Yields have pressed higher again, while the USD has stalled out on its gains and now flat on the day.  Precious metals higher on the day but will need rates to stall out and turn down to have a bigger rally.   At present, we see Industrials and Financials down over 2%, and only Utilities positive, but still no real signs of fear.    Fear important in putting in lows, and tough to see meaningful bounce when many haven’t capitulated and started to buy puts.

 

Pullbacks have support at ES-2613 for the balance of the day.   But under that would allow for either 2701.. or under would bring about a retest of Mondays lows.

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Indices higher, yet breadth tilted negative, with More Declining issues

2 hours left. We see S&P still up 0.70%.. But Decliners are outweighing advancing issues.  Breadth is actually DOWN on this rally today.   Volume is spread around 2/1 positive which is giving the ARMS index a reading of .48. Very low.   Sectorwise, Tech regaining some of the decline in the last couple days, while the surge in Healthcare continues.  Only Utilities and Real estate are down.. But Utilities are outpacing Technology for the week.. At +1.69% vs 1.56% for Tech.. And Telecom has been this week's top performer-   The dollar's decline continuing today.. While yields have been scaling back higher.. So a move to 2.68-2.70% looks likely for 10yr yields and that could coincide with a yield peak as well as Stock peak early next week..  For now..  The key takeways are that this week's Transport and SOX declines should be tough to regain in just 1 day as these both broke important uptrends.  Breadth is now slumping and something to take seriously.   VIX meanwhile , down only 2%.. A far cry from normal times when a 0.75-1% rally would bring a huge decline in VIX.. So today holding up very very well-  OVerall today's stats paint a far less rosy picture than one would guess by just looking at price alone

The Times.. they are a Chan-gin..

Definite signs of things changing in the market..  we’ve seen two straight days of reversal attempts now.  Yesterday held up and went higher. While today thus far is well off earlier highs, with big earnings stocks like CAT getting down below key support which if closes here.. would be a negative for this stock.    Sector-wise.  Consumer Staples outperformed last week, while this week, Real estate, Telecom and Staples yet again are outperforming, with technical signs of Utilities starting to stabilize and not moving back lower, despite rates moving up.     Technology and Industrials meanwhile have begun to pullback.. with breakdowns in the Transports and Bullish sentiment has begun to approach levels seen near the prior peaks in 07 and 00 and after years of bearishness.. the ebullience now seems very different than the last couple years..  Whether this is just the BEGINNING of the move from bearishness to bullishness seems doubtful, but the momentum surge has indeed been powerful and its been a difficult trend to try to fight.   However, breadth during this recent surge in January has been lackluster and implied volatility has held up quite well.   The VIX has been coiling and technically looks constructive to think a big move is approaching.   A couple of different cycles suggest some kind of change of trend could occur in stocks between now and 1/29,  but it’s been tough to pound the table on this given how bullish the trend has been.  So we’ll need to see the actual reversal itself, and for now that requires a move down under 2825.  Meanwhile the Euro continuing to press higher vs the US Dollar while rates have begun to tick up and press up to new highs.    Demark wise.  The S&P and Treasury yields are close to signaling at least daily signs of exhaustion.  So we’ll see if yields get to 2.70 and reverse back lower  and whether this recent weakness in Semis and Industrials persists..  But this kind of movement after a big uptrend is generally a worrisome sign given how hugely bullish the public is.. and many have difficulty finding reasons why one wouldn’t be in stocks.. given better than expected earnings, Fed rate hikes growing nearly to be a certainty in March, geopolitical risks having died down.. while most of DAVOS has sounded very very optimistic.  So no obvious roadblocks to further gains.. which is precisely the time to pay attention.  For now.  Trends intact.  But watching carefully. 

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Reversal could have importance given Sentiment, cycles, Counter-trend Sells

Just past 2....  S&P has erased all its early gains, and now Negative along with NASDAQ while Russell , and TRAN have turned down on the day.  Breadth is flat to small negative. with about 3/2 volume into Declining vs Advancing issues.   Real estate making a big comeback today.. While Healthare and Staples also positive by nearly 0.50.. But the decline in Energy, Industrials, and Materials has served as a headwind for markets, and only 3 positive sectors now out of 11..-  As mentioned, there is a heightened chance of market trying to peak out this week.  a rare confluence of some countertrend sells among various sectors and indices and S&P in particular has a sweet spot of resistance just above 2800 which initially looks to have worked.  -  US 2yr yields have pressed up over 2.01% today. While 10yr has also rebounded from earlier decline in yields.. Bund yield still lingering at .56 bps.. Down .02bps on the day-  The Decline in the dollar continues to have positive implictaion for the metals and metals stocks and GDX is higher, and still looks to extend-  Overall, a down close would be interesting and different than what we've been seeing in recent weeks, so given the combination of a few bearish indications for a possible peak, it's necessary for the bulls to forge ahead and close back at the highs , as a negative close would be more negative heading into the balance of this week-  Note, relative charts for Staples have tried to bottom out. And this looks to be an area to favor in the short run..   While avoiding the Discretionary, Financials, Tech areas- at this point.  2790 has been breached.. So last Friday's lows of 2766 will have importance

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Technology still lagging, but Breadth and structure remain fine

90 min remaining..S&P has largely held steady since erasing most of early gains.  Dollar has turned up a bit vs Yen in the last couple hours, while bonds are largely higher today with continued flattening out in yield curves. particularly vs the long end, with 5/30 breaking down sharply..  this 30yr yield decline seems to be largely following Crude and Inflation expectations,  but it is notable.. Tech still providing most of today's weakness and will be important for SOX and XLK to hold up above last weeks lows-  Financials meanwhile acting quite well and one of the reasons Equity indices are holding up well given this resilience- The early reversal in industrials has not come back today with Airlines and Rails both attempting early breakouts that failed.  Meanwhile Utilities and Telecom leading all sectors  as the long bond rally seems to be aiding these defensive sectors-  Breadth still around 2.5/1 positive and volume is nearly 3/1 into Advancing vs Declining issues, which is a definite positive- VIX meanwhile UNDER 10 yet again at 9.85, but none of this really matters all that much in thinking that equities would need to turn down right away, Much of this will be based on sectors holding up and specifically, tech and Financials-  Let me know if you have any questions

Bond yields not rising with Stocks, while S&P nearing key Short-term resistance

Good morning-  US Futures have pushed up to nearly reclaim 50% of the prior downdraft, a real positive in terms of helping momentum to stabilize a bit after our severe downside volatility.. but now have reached areas on the upside where further gains might prove difficult-  2041-5 on S&P SEPT Futures is important and lies near the prior mid-June lows, so this should be an area to consider adding hedges for at least some type of backing and filling into next week- Have seen a strange couple days where SKEW has gotten severely elevated, while both the number of stocks making new LOWS and New highs have spiked-  Monday's trading showed the highest number since February on New lows, then has subsequently dipped on our rally- 

New lows spiked to highest levels since February

One thing to note.. TY YIELDS have barely budged on any of this bounce.  German bund yields back down to -.12 bps while 10yr at 1.46, certainly no bounce which would have been thought to be the case preceding the equity move-  Some minor consolidation in US Dollar index over last couple days, but certainly not that much of a negative when compared to what happened post BREXIT when the Dollar surged, and USD still very much positive-  Gold and Crude both rallying moderately this am.. Most of Europe is higher by another 2%- 

 

TNX has really fallen off hard at a time when normally stocks and bond yields tend to trend together.  Most of the turns still come about on similar days for both, but with far less magnitude for stocks, as the SPX is definitely not following the extent of the move right now in Yields, and in the last few days, yields also have not budged

 

Key SHORT-TERM thesis-  Recent rally likely stalls out today and pulls back into final day of the month/quarter and into early July..consolidating these gains BEFORE a larger rally gets underway- So bullish on 2-3 month basis, but tentative, and bearish into early next week, using today's gains to put on Hedges..  For now, the 2-3 month positives and negative have been written about in my Daily and weekly notes-  http://newtonadvisor.com - .Early movers for this am:  TSRO, PVTB, AMRS, DAR, FTI, MYGN, PES all positive, while LPCN, ECR, ALV, SWN, HR negative-  Let me know if I can answer any questions

Use rally to add to hedges, as a retest of lows likely into next week

Use rally to add hedges for pullback into early next week before lows are at hand-  Eco stats largely came in under expectations this am with Personal consumption 1.5 v 2 % exptd,  GDP price index 0.4% vs .6 and Core PCE QoQ a tad lower at 2% vs 2.1.. US futures have largely followed suit to whats' happening in Europe this morning as S&P higher by 1.1% but well shy of most of the 3% gains occurring in STOXX600, DAX.. Key to note is that both European Banks and GBPUSD are rallying sharply this am, while yields are bouncing albeit from very depressed levels-  BOTTOM LINE_Tough to put much faith in this rally and even though a rally is around the corner, next week TIME WISE is more important than this week and I expect a test of lows into next week before a bigger rally, so expect that most of these yield gains will be given back into July 4 and Equities need to revisit lows again.. For today, 2011-2 important for Sept futures than 2037-40, which should be maximum area of upside before selloff into next week.. so right to use this rally to lighten up for those with 5-7 day perspective.. but over next few months, an above-avg chance of a decent rally, so for those positioning into early September.. pullbacks would be used to cut shorts and buy dips early next week following 7/4 holiday-  early gains in TWLO, MRO, LC, DKS while on downside.. RGLS, BUFF, SJI, INFI-  Let me know if you have questions

Minor bounce for S&P but little signs that this is anything more than just a 1-2 day bounce after having reclaimed 2001 yesterday-  Prices remain UNDER the area of the breakdown at 2040, and this area should prove formidable resistance on any further gains in the next day or two before pullbacks into next week, which could mark a stronger low

As can be seen the rally attempt has not even reclaimed the area of the prior breakdown, at 2040 after having given back more than 38.2% of the entire rally from Feb into June within 2 days time.  Tuesday's bounce lacks the Demark counts in place to suggest a real low and should be used to add to hedges for thoughts of revisiting and getting back under into next week

Aussie 10yr yields got down to 1.95% and in the last couple weeks, pushed back down to new all-time low territory-  Until yields can regain 2.25%, the trend is bearish for yields

Minor losses in Equity futures on Quad Expiration- Tough to rule out Retest

Ahead of today's Housing starts, Quad expiration, we see minor losses in US futures, while most of Europe is marginally positive along with Asia- Bond yields are rising this am while Crude is higher by nearly 2%.  The trend from 6/8 lows remains down and yesterday's rally, while constructive, didn't make sufficient progress to think lows are in , so could easily get a retest of lows into early next week before real bottom is at hand.  Technically, we seem to be getting close, as counter-trend signals of exhaustion are close for both Equities, TNX and USDJPY while Financials have also shown similar signs of trying to bottom out as Yields have gotten stretched and seem close to bouncing-  OVerall, we haven't seen sufficient deterioration to grow too negative on the market for a big move down on BREXIT fears, with indices still well above May lows, and while the near-term trend remains negative, downside should prove minimal into next week=  Key areas to watch,  2050-2 and then 2030-3 area, while 2081-3 necessary to get above on the upside to have any sort of confidence about lows being in.  Look to buy dips when given the chance in today and into next week-  Key gainers this morning are RDEN, PRTK, LL, SWHC, while CMTL, SEMG, INNL are down-  Let me know if I can answer questions

Minor stabilization in equities , but trend still down from 6/8 and yesterday wasn't sufficient thus far to think a bigger low is in place.   Futures have support near 2050 and then 2032-5 and would require a move over 2082 to think potentially the pullback might be postponed.

 

JPY is near support where counter-trend rallies could get underway, as early as next week.  Overall this has moderate importance for equities, so important to see how USDJPY acts, as counter-trend signals are now present which have occurred at lows in the past, and are within 2-3 days for both TNX and SPX

Credit Suisse's Fear index hit the highest levels in the last decade- (AS shown in Daily shot)- This Barometer measures sentiment for 3 mth horizons by pricing a Zero Cost collar, Selling a 10% Out of the money Call and using proceeds to buy an Out of the Money (OTM) put.  The level coincides with how far OTM the SPX put is.  The higher the level, the greater the fear.

Bounce in Equities, but trend remains down- Metals trying to bottom Short-Term

Trend remains DOWN in US Equities, bounce this am has NOT gotten back over yesterday's highs, and remains in downtrend from 4/20-  While some evidence that downside might prove limited, prices have not yet gotten to support,so should be right to sell into early gains, expecting drawdown to 2026-28 or 2007 max, bottoming potentially into next week-   Bund yields starting to break, now down under .186 while TY YIELDS still positive-  Metals rebounding today after 3 straight down days,  and US Dollar index likely shows some evidence of peaking today and makes another stab at the lows into next week-  For now, counter-trend rallies in Stocks, US dollar and TNX, but near-term trend in all of these is down-  2037-9 important for today for SP Futures, then 2027-8-  On upside, 2057 important to sell, and then would need to get OVER 2069 to expect downtrend had run its course-  Favor GOLD, SILVER, EURUSD, and shorting into any early bounce in MSCC, SWKS, CAVM, ON, MRVL, MU, TER, QCOM, along with XLF-  Let me know if you have any questions

 

Trend remains down, and bounce this am has NOT gotten above where it needs to and pullback never reached support, so technically still looks good to fade for a final pullback into early next week

German bunds this am breaking down, while US TY YIELDS still higher but IN downtrends and also should retrace down to near 1.75 before any low is at hand.  For now, today seeing COUNTER-TREND movement in US DOLLAR, TY YIELDS and STOCKS

Gold and other metals have tried to stabilize this morning after 3 straight down days after the recent surge-  While the level of general overbought conditions heavy LONG SPEC buying and seasonality should start to favor Metals falling.. for now, its early and another stab higher looks likely into next week

S&P resilient while Bund,Gilt yields continue advance, GBPUSD pressing higher

Ahead of today's Durable Goods, we see US Futures fractionally positive coinciding with Europe also up a small amount, but being led by Italy, Spain which are up more than 1.2% completely recouping what was lost yesterday-  What's interesting technically is the continued rise in Bund yields along with Gilts, which have just broken out, and GBPUSD also moving to the highest levels since mid-February.  Important given the tendency for US TY yields to follow suit and therefore continue to prop up sectors like Financials which are likely to outperform as Yields move higher while Utilities and REITS underperform.   The US Dollar index is mildly lower overall today while Energy is bouncing.. and Metals showing losses for now.  Copper down another 1%, and frontrunning its normal May decline after peaking right near March highs last Friday.  Early gainers in SC, SEED, PETX, EXEL, NXPI, and TMUS while on the downside- SRPT, DRRX, CPXX and DDD.  S&P remains pretty resilient after 2 straight days of lifting meaningfully off early lows   and until there's evidence of 2071 being breached, its right to stay positive and expect that indices might be able to push up and test highs into end of week before any stalling out-  Quite a few indices and sectors up near former highs and the risk/reward is certainly not as great technically at current levels, but we continue to see just very little signs of any weakness, and that is notable and for now, doesn't pay to fight-   Other earnings beats this am:  BEAV, IR, COH while GLW, RAI, WHR, LLY, WDR showed MISSES.   Key for S&P FUT today 2091-2, then 2100-5 while strong support at 2071

Minor slowdown in trend, but no signs of any real weakness, and more of just a flattening thus far, with the last two days having closed meaningfully up off early lows

Bund yields rising which in turn are helping US TY YIELDS also stay strong, & 2 yr in particular pushing up back above .855 bps this am-  Movement up to 31-33 looks likely with a move over that leading to a real RIP in yields.  All of this "should" be beneficial towards Financials, even after the bounce, with resistance for XLF up near 24-24.10

BREXIT or no?  Huge short interest now in Pound sterling while today is showing "Cable" rising to the highest levels since mid-Feb-  This area just north of 1.455 does look to have importance, but given the Bets on BREXIT., this could definitely keep going technically in the short term

UK Gilt ylds also joining the party as they press higher, and above 1.60 is a minor breakout here as well-  So Bunds, Gilts, TY yields among others have definitely been steadily strengthening in recent days

Correlations being unwound? S&P holding up relatively well despite USDJPY plummeting

S&P down 0.50% ahead of Jobless Claims and its post FOMC surge has nearly been erased, with prices now right down to the first important area of support, formed by the prior spike high right near 2050, which of course, has been important before.   Overall, trends will be positive until/unless 2034-5 is broken, the area that was tested 3 times yesterday.  While stilll expecting the S&P can claw its way out of this potentially, avoiding the weakness being seen in most of the world..  this area will be the true Make -or-Break and its right to be BULLISH above 2035 and bearish below.

Being bullish US stocks is balanced against being short Europe (STOXX 50) and long US Treasuries, German Bunds with rates still in downtrends... WTI Crude attempted to muscle back up above 38 and failed last night and that is the key line in the sand for WTI.. BULLISH above, bearish below-   issues with Momentum and breadth waning thus far haven't been an issue for US stocks, though the precipitous drop in USDJPY down more than 1.25% is a concern and Japan has dropped 17+% in the first 14 weeks of the year, certainly NOT what BOJ expected during its NIRP and QE-

USDJPY has violated key support in the last few days, but interestingly enough the correlation with SPX largely has disappeared since mid-February

USDJPY has violated key support in the last few days, but interestingly enough the correlation with SPX largely has disappeared since mid-February

So this could weigh on stocks potentially as SPX has moved more closely with USDJPY over the last 2 years than nearly any other instrument-  and positive correlation between USDJPY, SPX remains elevated above 0.50- (BUT STILL LARGELY has NOT WORKED since mid-February)  Precious metals bouncing.  as gold back up above 1235 while DXY unchd.. and weakness coming solely from Dollar vs Yen, while consolidating vs Euro after big move last week.   For now, its right to think that the prior correlations are definitely showing some evidence of being unwound.. that with Crude and SPX and now USDJPY and SPX, both which have been strong in the past, and likely would have caused far more followthrough from SPX last week to the downside as Crude fell and now this week with USDJPY falling.  

If SPX can hold up in the wake of a plummeting USDJPY and EUROSTOXX and DAX falling precipitously, that would be something indeed-  Momentum and breadth as has been mentioned have been quite weak in the last couple weeks for US Equities, but this constant sector rotation is serving to keep things afloat , with the Attacks on inversions supplying a bid to the potential candidates in both Healthcare and Energy while Financials remains the weak link.    For now..   Important to keep an eye on 2034-5 and until violated.  its right to buy dips

Once, Twice, Three times a Charm? S&P resilient as CRUDE bounces post DOE stats, USDJPY recovers

Early failure of S&P to break 2035 even on a breakdown in USDJPY below 110 has now led higher, with the Energy DOE stats confirming the big Draw in inventories seen by yesterday's API stats and even at a greater rate, with 4.6 million reduction in oil inventories.. and crude yet again, has followed through on yesterday's short-term reversal, pressing back up just below 38.  This resulted in JPY moving back above 110 , a key level given its own breakdown to new 17 month lows.. while S&P rebounded back to near the highs of the day.  

Healthcare leading all sectors, as many wondering whether this Allergan inversion block leaves the door open now for others-   Materials also the other sector higher by more than 0.50% while Utilities the only DOWN group- 

9 of the top 20 performers today are Energy related, all up more than 3%.. as might be expected while WTI is higher by more than 3% itself..   while8 of the top 20 S&P performers today are healthcare related. 

VRTX, BHI, HAL, OI, DVN, MRO, HES, ENDP, MUR all higher by more than 5%

HOG, VLO, WYNN, TSO, CF, MPC, ETN, NRG, KSU all down more than 2%..

Bottom line, despite the weakness in momentum and breadth, despite the attempted price failure.. SPX has held where it needs toand really cannot be properly faded until we see some evidence of a break

Area at 2034-6 remains KEY for S&P FUTURES-  Tested now 3 times and has held-  See on the far right the bounce that occurred in the last 2 hours and coinciding with Crudes spike

CRUDE staged large bounce after today's DOE stats showed an even bigger inventory draw than yesterday-  Above 38 would mean Crude breaks out to join the S&P, not vice versa-  For now, Crude is the one asset that most are paying attention to and following-  German Bunds being another, which held former lows at 10 bps and rallying today

S&P down to near-term Make-or-Break as questions loom over extent of momentum deterioration

Trend bullish, but momentum waning substantially and prices down to levels as of yesterday's lows that need to hold to allow for rally to continue-  2034-6 the area of importance for Futures-  Crude and SPX starting to come together a bit after last couple weeks of widening- but WTI needs move over 38, or else this remains a bounce to sell into-  Tough to make much of European bounce, or in Premkt US Futures move-   This morning's Daily Technical comment shows the extent to which momentum has begun to deteriorate, so very important to hold for S&P today   See extent of 40 point S&P slide from Monday's lows down to early April swing lows which are important to hold

Breaks of 2034 likely lead down to 2012 in S&P Futures, but still are likely to prove short-lived given the improvement in breadth and momentum on an intermediate-term basis.  Pullbacks therefore likely prove short-lived, and still need more proof even to call for a short-term selloff.  

Crude rebounded yesterday while S&P fell, helping to bridge the gap between these two asset classes that have trended very much in unison of late-  Movement in WTI higher by another 3% this morning keeps this mean reversion at work.. though gains OVER 38 needed for WTI and for now, its thought that this rally is a chance to sell, with movement under 2034 helping S&P join back again with WTI in trending lower

Fractional Gains to start the new week- Natural Gas in focus

As the first new week of the new month gets underway, most US index futures are showing mild gains, while Europe is higher by a full 1%.  Treasuries are higher by a small amount, while WTI Crude and Gold are largely unchanged.  For now, the trends remain bullish, overbought, but still resilient, with no pullback lasting more than 3-4 days or causing meaningful damage before moving right back to the highs-  For S&P, prices lie up near the highs of this resistance channel that has guided prices since mid-March (on a flatter plane than the original rally from mid-February )  Resistance lies near 2070-2 while support of this channel is near 2040-2, 2035-7.    While some might consider this an area to sell, additional gains look likely up to last November/December highs before any meaningful pullback gets underway. Hourly chart below:

Excerpts from this morning's Weekly Technical Perspective-  where 10 TOP Technical Breakout stocks are listed which have just gotten above former highs and/or look attractive from a risk/reward perspective

"The ability to reclaim new highs for the year has stopped out shorts and looks to press even higher as indices enter the seasonally bullish month of April.  If history repeats itself, US equities typically average about 2% in the month of April, the month which directly proceeds the "Sell in May and Go Away" period.  Markets are higher typically 66% of the time, and even a greater percentage of the time 71%, when the prior month is higher by 5%, such as March according to Bespoke.( DJIA up by 7.08%) While April typically is the best month for Equities when considering the DJIA, 3rd/4th best for S&P, NASDAQ respectively, it lands a mere 3rd during Election years, averaging just under 1%.  However, it's important to remember that the the 2nd quarter of Election years typically has one of the worst returns of any within the Election year cycle, (Averaging -1.2% since 1900) and we see that three out of the last four times this occurred since 2000 were negative (2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012)  (Stock Traders Almanac)  Yet this time around, the selling very well might prove muted until indices reach former November/December 2015 highs, given that little resistance lies between prices and these levels at present, and they're only 1% higher ) "

Natural gas continuing its ascent, with May NG back up above $2.00 MBtu, and still looks attractive to make additional gains in the days ahead.

The April Fools Day Joke is on Us

Just when you thought April Fools couldn’t get any more cruel, Fridays Post NFP trading proved to be one for the record books.   The S&P pull the ultimate prank in bouncing about 7 points after a largely satisfactory Jobs number (215k jobs, Good wage, participation data)  Ok, Jobs good, market good, right?  Wrong.. April fools..  The market then turned on a dime, giving back all of its early gains, proceeded to give all  the gains back, and then some.  Prices undercut support at 2040 and moved down nearly to 2035 .  Ok, so NFP manufacturing data (-29k ) was the worst since 2009.. Crude is moving lower.. S&P SHOULD follow suit..right? Profit taking.. Overbought conditions..  April Fools again !!!!   the market snapped back, surging back up to, and OVER its early morning highs, and is currently HIGHER on the day..  (Wait?  April Fools, or not?  )

SPX and Crude had moved neck and neck since the latter part of last November up until about a week ago

Chart provided re: @Ukarlewitz   USO v SPY

Chart provided re: @Ukarlewitz   USO v SPY

SInce that time, the divergence has grown quite large, the biggest in the last few months, where Declines in WTI and TNX for that matter, have had little impact on S&P, outside of intra-day pullbacks

Crude continuing lower today, despite snapback in SPX which has ignored the 3% decline.  Could this correlation finally be ending?  Too soon to tell, but Crude downside targets lie near 36, then $34.50-$35.

S&P held where it needed to, yet again.  Would need to violate 2020 to have real concern

Healthcare and Staples are showing today's best outperformance, while Energy and Industrials are down-  Financials being the 3rd best performing group is surprising given the degree to which TY Yields are weak, and under 1.80%