February 12, 2019
Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC
Tuesday Technical Video 2/12/19
Thursday 2/7 Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX, EEM, Commodities
Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18
SUMMARY: Good move price-wise, but it looks right to sell into SPX between 2745-60
New Long Ideas: GLW, ADBE, XLF, KRE, CSCO, PYPL, SQ
A solid rally today has carried S&P and other US indices back to the highest levels of the year, with S&P now up nearly 400 points from late December. Breadth remains a solid 3/1 positive today and we're seeing decent outperformance out of most of the "risk-on" groups, particularly with some strong price action out of Financials. (More of this covered in today's video)
However bullish today might seem, however, it does look right to consider paring back into this move as we're still seeing a bit of a slowdown in momentum in recent days given last week's mild 2-day pullback. Additionally, defensive groups are still outperforming for the week, and TNX remains trending down over the last few weeks, while counter-trend exhaustion should appear from Wednesday to Friday on many benchmark indices and sectors.
Overall, until there is at least a new two-day close to new lows, or some evidence of reversal, it is still right to maintain a bullish posture and not short into this move too quickly. However, at present, there are some minor warning signs that make taking some profits and/or buying implied volatlity seem like a good idea.
SPX- Daily- March futures- As can be seen, prices are higher than early February, but momentum remains lower. A good move price-wise, but it's right to expect a slowdown between 2745-60.