Mid-Day Wed Technical Video
My CNBC interview from yesterday- Bearish on AAPL into Product launch given overbought conditions, targeting $205 for pullback as part of current intermed. Term uptrend.
My CNBC interview from yesterday.. choosing HD, LOW out of the Big Box retailers after their recent breakout above Jan highs
Markets remain fractionally negative, though NASDAQ down nearly 0.50% as stocks have struggled to regain its early positive, despite evidence of possible negotiations with China
Both Technology and Financials negative.. so over 40% of the Market.. so while those sectors and Utilities are the only ones down.. 3 of 11.. they have a big impact on averages.
Sectors like Consumer Staples, Telecom up more than 1% today. And Industrials also positive to the tune of 0.65%, so some good rallies in many names. Yet, Technology weakness looks to be taking a toll.
Crude’s rally above $70 serving to help energy to some extent, but many Energy ETFs remain in downtrends and difficult to expect much of a rally. So gains have been tough to come by.
Dollar weakness starting to extend a bit more in the last couple hours. While bond also rallying and Yields down to 2.96% on 10yr.. a bit of a pullback on last couple days.
S&P- KEY RESISTANCE at 2895- near-term pattern will remain challenging until S&P can get above earlier highs.
UNDER 2879, the lows from earlier.. would cause a pullback to 2865-7 which is arguably more important on the downside
Crude- very constructive gains back to the highs of this pattern which bodes well for Crude to break out in the days/week ahead
Energy has been a serious laggard as a sector and many of these stocks remain tough to buy
Technically.. I like SM, VNOM, HLX, UNT, DNR, MCF
AAPL- Near-term, I expect AAPL likely pulls back to 205 before gains can continue- so about a 6-8% correction as part of its ongoing uptrend
The stock is attractive on an intermediate-term basis technically, but AAPL has gotten a bit overbought near-term given the rise in the last few months, and just in the last week has shown some evidence of rolling over to alleviate some of these overbought conditions, correcting about 3.5% in the last 5 trading days. I believe this should continue in this seasonally weak month
From late April to late August, AAPL rose about 26% in four months’ time, causing the stock to get very extended above its intermediate-term uptrend.. and weekly RSI to spike above 70 (Relative Strength index) and remains above 70 on monthly basis.. the most overbought since 2015.
This recent start of weakness in the last week does not look complete. So similar to 2012, 2015.. the stock looks likely to pullback in the short run.. and its runup from late April should be consolidated into late September before gains can continue
AAPL- Weekly- $205 would be a 50% correction to the rise from late June and is considered the first real target of importance on the downside
AAPL- MONTHLY- See how stretched prices have gotten as of this past month- Weakness down to 205 is a minimum expectation but would provide a much better buying opportunity as part of this uptrend
HD remains quite attractive and any pullback back to its base should be used to buy, arguing for further outperformance
Great technical structure in this compared to stocks like TGT, and a better near-term risk/reward
Would choose HD also over LOW as HD has consistently outperformed in recent years but has underperformed in last couple months, making for a better risk/reward in my view