Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

Monday mid-day Technical Thoughts- S&P, Refiners, Financials, Industrials

Monday Technical Video-

https://stme.in/MxILAUo9Dd

Last Thursday’s TECHNICAL WEBINAR- Thorough 15 min call on technicals of global assets

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gkpjm_QUZM&feature=youtu.be

BOTTOM LINE_  Still a bit early to fade this move here, even though S&P is in the range near Channel resistance and arguably ABOVE.  but buying implied volatlity makes sense here for the next 4-6 weeks

Daily charts show the potential for peaks by Wed of this week.. and overbought condition across the board.  So its right to not think today represents the START of a new move.. but yet look to sell into this ,  this week

For now.. still no imminent signs of reversal

Futures continuing to lift as S&P nears 2900, and has joined the SPX cash back at new highs, volume very light as expected and likely continues this whole week, but breadth about 2/1 positive

Prices have gotten slightly OVER the upper border of the Trend channel from August and momentum getting overbought now on multiple timeframes.  Financials and Materials showing gains over 1.6% while Industirals over 1.2%..  Tech almost up 1%.. while Utilities and REITS are lower..   Energy, healthcare both lagging today.-  Dollar decline has continued today

Financials and Industrials both making breakouts in the ETF’s  XLI, XLF- sector SPDRS..

NOTE_  VIX not plunging to new lows.  Above Friday’s close. .  So some definite divergence here.   And personally I have used today’s move to lighten up substantially in stocks.. and adding some implied volatlity, which I will keep until October-     VXX is the ETF for VIX which has held up above August highs. And something aggressive traders might take a closer look at

However,   DAILY Charts for S&P FUTURES still 2-3 days away from triggering the same exhaustion that is now seen in SPX.  So its still very difficult to fight this move until/unless we see some reversal

image002.jpg

 

S&P-  HOURLY counts showing very overbought conditions.  But the move has proven very sharp and would need to undercut 2881 to pay attention

Targets at this point lie

image008 (1).jpg

 

XLF-   A constructive move out of financials.. and while KRE, KBE not showing the same bullish move.  This is positive

Stocks like GS, PRU and C both showing very good moves today and these are technically positive to think they can extend over 2-3 days

Conversely others like FITB, ZION, CBOE are better shorts than longs and ones to consider betting against for the next 4-6 weeks

REFINERS are an area to favor here. Within energy-  this plays into the theme from this week’s WEEKLY from today

VLO, ANDP, MPC are very attractive technically

image004 (2).gif