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Bounce encouraging, but much more to do- Dollar weakening- EM Firming - FRIDAY AM TECHNICAL VIDEO, Link to yesterday's Webinar

Friday am Technical Video



Yesterday’s Webinar-  LINK to Technical Call



Some credible reasons to think today’s Equity bounce might be the start of a rally higher into end of Quarter/July 4 holiday, but given the negative trend from mid-June.. its tough making too much of this right now and until the market shows more progress and getting up above 2747 at a minimum for S&P-   There are reasons, cyclical, structural, and based on a gradual waning in momentum, to expect the market could still be weak in July.-   The trend remains negative from mid-June, but as relayed in this am’s Morning Technical Comment.. its right to be bullish into early July given reasons such as seasonality, uptick in fear and some evidence of a few sectors having shown evidence of reaching support-    Long bias, with resistance 2747, and over near 2779-80-  On the downside support at 2714-6-  Under would be problematic for a retest.... but not expected today


Near-term, we’ve seen a real surge in Treasuries in the last week.. and bond yield charts don’t look that great.. as the yield curve drops to near 31 bps-  ((High Yield seeing a very strong start in Cash this am, FYI) 

EEM and Metals have reached areas of importance and could begin to rally, but this depends on the USD rolling over.. which we’ve begun to see this am (but more is needed).   The technical damage seen in Technology and Financials hasn’t been completely recouped by 1 day’s rally nor will it on a rally today.  So both of these sectors need to be watched carefully.   However, charts of Transports/Industrials, Materials all look to bounce.. while many of the Defensive sectors also show good strength-  Utes, REITS  (counter-trend moves, but still ongoing)    For now, into July, I like covering shorts and expecting more on the upside given the seasonality and minor uptick in Fear gauges-   Premkt gainers this am:   GEMP, DERM, XLRN, CLDC, ACAD, NKE, VRTX, OCUL, KBH, TRVN, AVEO, INO, ASNS, DSPG, GMS, GERN, HMNY, DRYS, WFC, VKTX, while on downside-   PFIE, TRXC, STZ, GLPG, CBL, XRF




S&P making good progress this am in getting back up above 2730-  Both 2737 and 2747 are important for different reasons, but its thought that markets should turn higher into July

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DXY-  Dollar starting to slow in its recent rally attempt.  We can see momentum making lower highs-  While more needs to be done to think an official peak out is happening.

Given the signals right now in EEM, Gold, China,  its thought that the US Dollar should begin to peak out and turn lower, giving rise to a bounce in Metals and EM






EEM-   Momentum has gotten stretched and EEM has shown some signs of exhaustion. So expect we could see a snapback in the Emerging mkts