Friday am Technical Video- 5 min, SPX structure.. YIELDS.. key areas of importance
Link to Thursday’s Technical Webinar- 20 min, thorough overview of sector rotation, indices, commodities, currencies
I’ll be on CNBC today 2:30 pm EST
Tariffs was given as the reason for early am weakness, but there have been signs now for the last few days of markets starting to stall out and gradually roll over, with Financials and Industrials falling by the wayside and Technology getting up to areas of importance that should be likely to cause this sector to begin to consolidate and pullback. In Thursday’s Morning report, I highlighted 10 reasons why stocks should begin to pullback in the last two weeks of June., concentrating on recent negative divergences in momentum and in intermarket strength, poor breadth in recent days, complacent sentiment, seasonal headwinds, counter-trend signs of exhaustion, and other reasons. This should take stocks lower over the balance of June, and make an above-average pullback which I suspect could get back to April/May lows by the end of July. Initially, we’ll have to break 2745 which lines up with the uptrend from early April along with the former mid-May highs. Structurally speaking.. and that would give conviction that the trend had turned down from early May.
For today, S&P has gotten down to yesterday’s lows, an initial area of support and NASDAQ has not yet rolled over yet sufficiently to say the trend is bearish. But under 7100 this would be underway for ND Futures while under 2772 in S&P Sept futures would allow for a move to 2763 with the key S&P support at 2745. (( In the event prices hold here (2772-4) and attempt to rally back to the highs of the day-2788.. .. then one can’t rule out a final push to 2805-2815, but the odds support that a pullback should be starting , and gains should be used to pare down longs))
Bonds have rallied with yields now down to 2.90%, the Dollar is fractionally negative, while Gold is down 1%.
Overall a defensive stance looks preferred, looking at the oversold Staples, while favoring Materials stocks over Technology , Financials, and Industrials
Premkt gainers in CLPS, ARQL, ATRC, TXMD, GLUU, HMNY, NXPI, JBL, SNY, IQ, RENN, BSTI while on downside- AI, CISN, GNK, AFMD, OLED, GBT, GALT, SPLK, ADBE, LPL, BCX, CS, AEG
S&P weakening to yesterday’s lows- UNDER leads to 2762 and then 2745 initially.
10yr yields rolling over and while 2.88% is important.. this recent break should begin the start of more meaningful Treasury strength and weakness in Financials likely continues
Tech v SPX- Signs now from a counter-trend perspective that Tech should begin to retreat, similar to March and last November.
If inclined to be in Tech, one should favor Software and Hardware over Semis