TUNE IN TODAY-
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Retail sales data coming in quite strong, nearly double estimates even when stripping out Autos – Jobless claims 218k v 223k
ECB earlier said it will halt its bond buying by year end, while pledging to keep interest rates unchanged at current levels at least until Summer of 2019.. Bond buying to continue at 30 billion Euros a month until September with purchases to be phased out with 15 billion Euros in each of Oct, Nov and Dec. Draghi said ECB did not discuss when to raise rates.
Meanwhile, PBC opted not to follow US in raising rates and BOJ expected to maintain stimulus on Friday
Stock futures higher in US while most of Europe and Asia positive. US Dollar fairly muted except vs Euro where its higher as EURUSD -055% to 1.1727 in what should be a gradual near-term bottoming process for the Euro. GOLD higher and breaking out of its one-month range and this is worth noting.. One should watch XME as this has consolidated but setting up well to rally
Early gainers in TLGT, DEST, AFMD, ETSY, ATNM, PVTL, NVAX, GLMD, HMNY, GALT, NUAN, GSK all higher. While on the downside- TLRD, MIK, AQMS, TEX, FCEL, MYL, ORCL, HMY, UL, all down
The last couple days have given the first real evidence of this rally starting to stall out and its unlikely that stocks make much upside over the next couple weeks and should be positioned to turn lower, given a plethora of technical negatives that were detailed early this am: Sentiment, seasonality, divergences, Counter-trend exhaustion, Lack of sector participation/start of sector waning to name a few
S&P resistance 2790, then 2798-2800, and over would lead to 2805-2815 which should be maximum upside into early next week before turning lower. Pullbacks under 2772 would be likely to cause a test of last Friday’s 2755 lows.
S&P broke its one-month uptrend and now bouncing back, but this area should be important for today if the selloff is going to begin today/tomorrow- Any move back to 2800 likely does allow for a final low breadth/momentum push to 2805-2815 which should be sellable
10yr yields looking increasingly vulnerable after rally up into mid-month and now pulling back to multi-day lows. This should make any type of Bank bounce difficult and a pullback in yields is looking increasingly likely
Gold now should be favored today if this close can hold.. with futures over 1309 which would exceed the entire last month based on early day strength
If Rates and USD both start to pullback further, Gold likely to trend higher into end of June