Tuesday am technical video
No major positive or negative volatlity following the 2nd summit and S&P FUTURES are higher by a mere 5 ticks above last Fridays’ close before BOTH summits got underway.
European and Asian markets are mildly positive , the Dollar is largely unchanged, while Yields are pressing higher both in Europe and US ahead of FOMC, ECB meetings- TNX now at 2.97% (EXPECT max of near 3.02-3 and would use this to BUY TY Thur/Friday)
Trends remain bullish, but nearing areas of exhaustion per counter-trend indicators which would be complete TOMORROW.. while sentiment has yet again grown optimistic with Equity put/call ratios down at the lowest since March and just fractionally above late January lows.. which marked PEAKS for stocks. Seasonality , as been discussed, is very bearish for June. -1.7% on avg since 1950.. and now sectors have been stalling out and counter-trend tools are aligning for possible peaks into mid-month.
RH, KMG, PLAY, LE, PSTI, HMI, CODX, FRSX, GLMD, TSLA all positive.. while on the downside- IDRA, TNP, IMMU, HTGC, YELP, MEDP, SFL, NXPI, EDAP, TKC lower
LONG POSITIONS should be concentrated in Discretionary(RETAIL) and Healthcare for the next 2-3 days.. while looking to SHORT REITS- VNQ and XLU- UTILITIES- the latter which look to be near a historic breakdown of long-term trends. REITS have bounced and a better risk/reward short and sentiment is not as bearish on the REIT sector- VNQ-
Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC this am:
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said the second half of the year is going to be a “phenomenal” trading time when interest rates will move “significantly” higher as will stocks. Jones said in an interview on CNBC Tuesday that if ran the Federal Reserve it would increase rates by 150 basis points. Jones, whose hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp. has suffered from losses and investor withdrawals in recent years, said that he doesn’t have many macro trades on because the “reward and risk have diminished at this point in time.”
S&P Sept futures have a chance to get to 2800-2815 into Thursday/Friday, but this would be an area to take profits and bet the other way.
While trends have improved.. breadth has been lackluster in the last few days and technology is stalling out while seasonal headwinds await in the next couple weeks
VNQ- REITS are setting up for a very good risk/reward shorting oppty after this bounce.. and ahead of FOMC.
TD SELL SETUPS complete yesterday.. and very bearish structure.
Short VNQ here at 80-82 with targets back at recent lows and under <70
Equity Put/call ratios have plummeted of late.. as optimism surrounding FOMC meeting and/or peaceful summit..
With nearly 2 calls being traded per Put.. this is reaching dangerously low levels and Implied volatility can be considered into/after FOMC