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Tough to make too much of bounce just yet

Equities got all the way down to 2613 in S&P Futures before bouncing, but we’re still seeing breadth of 5/1 negative.. and volume is not as tilted to the downside.. so to argue a low is at hand, it should be good to see that capitulation in volume like what happened on Monday when TRIN got to 3.60 and fewer stocks hitting new lows. Overall, it’s tough to make too much of this bounce in the last half hour and S&P would need to get back over 2687, the highs from earlier.   Yields have pressed higher again, while the USD has stalled out on its gains and now flat on the day.  Precious metals higher on the day but will need rates to stall out and turn down to have a bigger rally.   At present, we see Industrials and Financials down over 2%, and only Utilities positive, but still no real signs of fear.    Fear important in putting in lows, and tough to see meaningful bounce when many haven’t capitulated and started to buy puts.

 

Pullbacks have support at ES-2613 for the balance of the day.   But under that would allow for either 2701.. or under would bring about a retest of Mondays lows.

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