Wed mid-day Technical Video
Into mid-day. We’ve seen US equities largely hold onto early gains with S&P and DJIA trading back up to new all-time highs while NASDAQ still below its all-time highs made back on Aug 29
Key to note for today- Financials trying to bounce, and have gained some momentum in the last couple hours. Now up 1.4% for the day. This group has been under relentless pressure over the last couple weeks, so its tough to make too much of today’s move, but is helping markets to rally a bit more. Breadth still only higher though by 3/2 and 4 groups down on the day- Utes, Staples, Real estate and Materials
Importantly. We’ve seen Treasury yields move back up to new highs for the year today on 10 and 30yr yields.. yet 10year TNX shows counter-trend SELLS in yields. So we’ll see if this matters in meaning that this yield move reverses.
But the combination of these counter-trend signals ALONG with sentiment are two important reasons to be not as bearish on Treasuries, expecting that rates could peak out. Not extend to 3.25-3.50
We’ll see. For now, its right to trust this yield move until/unless it reverses.. but there are now signs.. and pays to be aware of that before initiating any new bearish treasury bets
Commodities seem to be staging a comeback. And more on this in the daily piece tomorrow am. BUT CCI has made a major snapback in the last couple weeks and some decent price action not only out of Energy but also Grains, Softs , Meats
I am eyeing COTTON, SUGAR and OJ as being on the verge of reversing their downtrends and ones to buy here that have been trending down . The Coffee bounce looks to have just begun
I will be on CNBC TODAY, 2:25 PM EST
S&P back to new highs. Bullish technical structure. But Counter-trend sells based on TD COMBO with Sequential 3 days away.
Thus. Not as bullish of a move given these signals. Which have caused markets to stall in the past. For now. Seems like Friday/Monday important
But have to trust the move until/unless we see prices get under 2917
TNX- Rising back to new 2018 highs. A bullish technical development.
However, getting TD SEQ sells and COMBO sells while sentiment is very bearish. 2 factors which put a bit less ammunition in this bearish TY move
I do not like initiating new TY shorts here. But will trust the yield move for now until reversed.
Both 5 yr and 30 year look MORE likely to have yields extend over the next 3-5 trading days. So Favor the longer end of the curve for 30yr bearish move to 3.32-3.35%
Commodities on the comeback trail. Expect we see further gains. But will need to see Dollar back off
CCI INDEX. The equal-weight commodities index.. Old CRB