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The Times.. they are a Chan-gin..

Definite signs of things changing in the market..  we’ve seen two straight days of reversal attempts now.  Yesterday held up and went higher. While today thus far is well off earlier highs, with big earnings stocks like CAT getting down below key support which if closes here.. would be a negative for this stock.    Sector-wise.  Consumer Staples outperformed last week, while this week, Real estate, Telecom and Staples yet again are outperforming, with technical signs of Utilities starting to stabilize and not moving back lower, despite rates moving up.     Technology and Industrials meanwhile have begun to pullback.. with breakdowns in the Transports and Bullish sentiment has begun to approach levels seen near the prior peaks in 07 and 00 and after years of bearishness.. the ebullience now seems very different than the last couple years..  Whether this is just the BEGINNING of the move from bearishness to bullishness seems doubtful, but the momentum surge has indeed been powerful and its been a difficult trend to try to fight.   However, breadth during this recent surge in January has been lackluster and implied volatility has held up quite well.   The VIX has been coiling and technically looks constructive to think a big move is approaching.   A couple of different cycles suggest some kind of change of trend could occur in stocks between now and 1/29,  but it’s been tough to pound the table on this given how bullish the trend has been.  So we’ll need to see the actual reversal itself, and for now that requires a move down under 2825.  Meanwhile the Euro continuing to press higher vs the US Dollar while rates have begun to tick up and press up to new highs.    Demark wise.  The S&P and Treasury yields are close to signaling at least daily signs of exhaustion.  So we’ll see if yields get to 2.70 and reverse back lower  and whether this recent weakness in Semis and Industrials persists..  But this kind of movement after a big uptrend is generally a worrisome sign given how hugely bullish the public is.. and many have difficulty finding reasons why one wouldn’t be in stocks.. given better than expected earnings, Fed rate hikes growing nearly to be a certainty in March, geopolitical risks having died down.. while most of DAVOS has sounded very very optimistic.  So no obvious roadblocks to further gains.. which is precisely the time to pay attention.  For now.  Trends intact.  But watching carefully.