Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

Daily RSI has hit overbought levels not seen in 10+ years

To say this move is getting a bit out of control is putting it mildly-  But Futures at this time yesterday hit lows of 2357 so are up 40 handles in 24 hours .. still only around a 1.7% move, but given the low range we've been in for some time, it certainly feels like a lot more-  Daily 14 period RSI has hit levels we haven't seen in the last 10+ years even going back since the surge off the 09 lows, while MONTHLY RSI is still NOT at the levels we saw back in late 2013 when RSI peaked at 77.6 on monthly charts, despite prices being 30% HIGHER. Breadth today is a very unimpressive 2/1 positive, not the 4/1 or 5/1 bullish like we're used to seeing on big breakouts. so this is important and a mild negative-  Transports, Russell are both up 2% but Goldman's short basket also up 2% more than the markets, so there is some evidence of short covering, but we've seen this become less pronounced over the last hour-   Financials and energy leading all sectors.. while materials Industrials also rounding out the 4 sectors which are higher than 1.5% today-  As might be expected.. defensives lagging and Utilities are DOWN today, the only sector lower-   US Dollar index has paired some of its earlier gains while 10yr yields have ramped up and at 2.46% are closing in on important 2.50-2% area -  Most of Europe closed up a similar amount as US is higher today- S&P Futures pushing up against the upper border of its Bollinger bands and at 2400-5 there remains much to suggest this rally should stall-  The near-term momentum isn't being matched by a similar move in weekly/monthly momentum which will be an intermediate-term concern.  For now, former laggards that are starting to come to life and appear like good risk/reward longs include ALXN, BIIB, while trend following plays recommended this am like MAR are just moving to multiday highs and also good to be long as of today-   EUFN is the European Bank ETF which slid over the last week and now looks to be stabilizing, so this is preferred, vs reaching for things like KRE or KBE back at new highs.   The energy move might seem surprising with the USD breakout, but is something highlighted in this week's weekly technical perspective-  OIH now at multi-day high close which should drive this up to near 33.70-34-  Overall, tough to chase the index here, but individual names offer some good setups-  Let me know if i can answer any questions