Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

Signs of Treasuries turning back higher, while still just marginal weakness in Equities

Just after mid-day, S&P has given back about 0.30% while NASDAQ lower by 0.19%, just a minor decline and not even down under yesterday's lows while most of Europe closed largely flat with just minor losses on par with what S&P has shown.  Breadth is showing minor losses of 3/2 negative while Transports are showing nearly 1% losses on the day with Airlines showing most of the larger losses as LUV, DAL, UAL, JBLU, make up 4 of the last 5 of the biggest losers with Declines of -2.4% or greater.   Materials, energy, Industrials are lagging the most today while Healthcare is showing gains, the only major S&P sector up more than 0.25% as BIIB, HUM, CI, AET, ANTM and CELG are all higher by 2.50% or more- Key reversal to pay attention to was the Treasury bottoming out early this am where yields spiked to new highs before reversing to negative, and for now, Bund yields, and TY yields are showing fairly significant reversals on daily charts.   European and US Financials have been underperforming for the last couple days and should weaken into next week as yields pullback-    BUND YIELDS in particular went from nearly 3 bps to -1.7 while TNX hit 1.626 before pulling back to 1.56, a fairly large 1-day reversal.  Key to note for both of these.  Both lie near key DOWNTRENDS from April/May that suggest that upside in yield terms "should" prove limited in the days ahead.  

Reversal in Treasuries today shown in yield terms looks important as both US and European yields found strong resistance near downtrernds from April/May

For now, equities have only shown scant weakness, but movement back down under 2051 for SP , 2159 for SPX cash WOULD be something to pay attention to-  When looking at Demark indicators, these are showing 9 counts. TD SELL SETUPS now for US10yr yields..BUND YIELDS.   SPX, NDX,  DJIA, Financials- SX7P,  while Materials ETF XLB is showing signs of rolling over, moving to new multi-day lows after what appears to be a false breakout- with counter-trend signals of upside exhaustion in the last 1-2 days.-  BOTTOM LINE-  LONG HEALTHCARE.  SHORT MATERIALS as tactical trades.  Long S&P unless/until 2051 breached for SPu6 and under 2039 would be more of a concern-   BUY TLT, TMF, TYO while selling TBT.. and sell USDJPY and/or YCS .    Gainers today in EBAY, URI, QCOM, BIIB, HUM, ADS all higher by 5% or more while laggards like LUV, SHW, INTC, MRO, IPG are all down 4% or greater-   Let me know if you have any questions


Still very little sign of weakness in US, but definite evidence of a slowdown in this rally, and the two key areas to watch will be 2151 and then 2139-40