S&P prices have now moved over 5% higher in the last 3 days after having declined over 6% in the prior 3 days. Futures are nearly 2% OVER their 5 day moving average, quite stretched on an hourly basis, and the pattern from April has become notoriously unstable- Stocks just barely eked out gains for the month and quarter yesterday, and incredibly enough, Bonds, Commodities and Stocks all gained in 2Q- with GOV bond gains worldwide of 2.3% being the most since 2008 while commodities rose over 13% in 2Q- For today into early next week ahead of a long holiday weekend. we'll need to see some evidence of trends reversing before getting too negative.. but upside does seem limited. For today given the surge back to new highs in the last hour, its right to expect a further push up to 2102-3.. with 2081 being stops for longs, so 8 points of downside before getting stopped but 11 points of upside- risk reward not great.
Gold seems like a better bet for the next 3-5 days given today's move to multi-day highs after last week's surge.. but expect that gains likely do prove short-lived into late next week, and would look to sell into gains near 7/7-9- Technically the short call on Gold worked for about 4 days, with a 60 point decline before reversing right back, which is similar to what has happened in Equities. While CFTC Positioning seems to suggest upside might be limited given the degree of SPEC LONGS(nearly everyone agrees this is the perfect environment for Gold, low rates, Hikes off the table.. due to volatility/BREXIT, etc.. but that DEFINITELY seems to be "baked in the cake" so to speak. Gold's upside could last 1-2 weeks in the short run, but would be quick to use gains to sell into.. as Bond yields seem poised to turn back higher and the combo of rising USD and Bond yields historically has proven TOUGH for Gold.
Overall, yields should be in the process of trying to bottom out. US Treasuries could get down to 1.38-.near prior lows, (10s) and Bund yields also might have a bit more downside, but patterns and cycles suggest bottoming out in yield as opposed to additional downside- KEY FOR S&P FUTS- 2091. and OVER leads straight to 2102-3- On downside 2079-81.. then nothing until 2067- While trend bullish, would look to pare down on these gains, expecting at least some backing and filing, but above 2091, it pays to do NOTHING until 2102-3- Advancers today: SGY, AMPE, AVXL, FCAU, TWLO, LC, CCL, FDX, ABBV and on downside- CJES, OSUR, AMRS, TSRO, MGT, TSLA, OAS, CMG, SKWS, ZNGA- Let me know if you have questions