Selling in US Equities thus far has proven fairly benign compared to Europe which has been the case all along over the past few weeks. SPX is down only -0.35%, far less than Europe's -1.3%. Breadth is around 2.4/1 negative while volume is flowing at over 4/1 into Declining vs Advancing stocks. Financials and Materials have weakened the most of any major sectors today, FInancials dragging on recent technical followthrough after Yields broke down, while Materials are facing tough times given the rolling over in Commodities, which also looks to continue. The US Dollar's gains are now back up near key levels on the upside, and a breakout in USD, (which might happen on any BREXIT, as fears of EU dissolution take center stage and EUR/USD gets back down under 1.11- A couple key points to make which suggest , while near-term trend is negative, that we might not breakdown much further UNDER May lows, BREXIT or not. First, the VIX has moved so sharply higher that its now trading above its upper Bollinger while generating backwardation vs the 2nd, 3rd months, which often can happen near Equity lows- 2nd) the Volume into declining stocks vs Advancing is extreme and is generating a TRIN reading of nearly 1.7- While end of day readings count more than intra-day, it's worth mentioning, nonetheless3) Hourly , 2, 3, 4 hour charts are beginning to show signs of positive divergence on S&P after this pullback, which has given up about 50% of the prior rally from mid-May 4) Treasury yields have bounced a bit off early lows, the first real sign of downside exhaustion and intra-day Demark on various length charts confirm this could be the case also, with yields now very stretched to the Downside- Given that stocks followed Bond yields lower, a move off the lows for Yields might have some positive effects for Equities to follow suit. Overall, the momentum remains quite positive along with Breadth on US Equities on a weekly basis, so this pullback should prove temporary, particularly given the massive state of uncertainty ahead of these major events. FOMC, BOJ and BREXIT vote- Rallies should be right around the corner, and technically I feel its UNLIKELY that SPX takes out May lows and begins a larger decline-
S&P futures now a bit stretched, and could bounce following FOMC given the near-term signs of positive divergence and intra-day oversold conditions
Yesterday's break of 2082 did turn the near-term trend bearish- But how much is logical to expect out of this pullback, as most seem inclined to jump onboard with a cautious stance on the heels of momentum starting to rollover on daily charts ahead of some major events this week and next- Technically the area near 2041-50 should have some importance on the downside into Wednesday, and difficult to make too much of this decline until/unless May lows were to be breached, which seems unlikely.