Today's close finishing right near the lows, undercutting early June, Breadth of about 3.5/1 negative and 4/1 in volume in favor of DOWN vs UP stocks. no real signs of stabilization yet, and could lead to another 1-2 days of selloff, but tough to make more of it as US continues to be far stronger than the rest of the world, and the technical damage just hasn't been sufficient to have a real bearish stance for more than 2-3 days-
Implied volatility moving more so than indices of late, as the whole curve is shifting which has not allowed for any real backwardation which normally is present after 40% VOL spikes- +40% VIX pop in just under 3 days, 20th largest 3-day VIX rise in the last decade.. But SPX down only 1.5% vs avg drop of 5.3% in other 19 occasions. Looks clearly like hedging vs real liquidation- Going forward, over the next 5 days, a 40% VIX pop has seen avg return of 2.04% for S&P vs .18% during random stretch, over last decade (when looking out a week) (Thanks to Ryan Detrick, Adam Warner, and Jason Goepfert for some of these Stats) Momentum on daily SPX charts has rolled over to negative, and prices are UNDER initial support, but Equity index selling really hasn't matched that of Implied vol which has spiked, and sentiment seems pretty ugly ahead of some important events, with FOMC, BOJ and BREXIT vote on deck.
Until we get under 2059 for June futures.. Which would make me think we could retest May lows, I like buying into weakness, as momentum from February remains in very good shape, High yield remains constructive, and recent Advance/Decline at new all-time highs still suggests likely strength into July. For now, the Defensive sectors like Utilities and Staples are doing much better with far more stocks hitting new 52-week highs, whereas Financials still look to weaken.. So given their 17% weighting in SPX, we could see a bit more selling until we see Treasury yields stabilize, along with Europe, which broke down today and Japan/China also quite weak- I am looking for 2070 in S&P June futures with a possibility of 2060, which are the same as SPX cash- but don't see a larger move right now and skeptical SPX gets down under May lows- Would use weakness over next 1-2 days as chance to buy
2yr yields down near key support, with Eco data barely having changed in the last few weeks, outside of just the Sub-par NFP jobs report- yields largely have been following suit to what's happened in Bund, Gilt yields