Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

Trend choppy for stocks & bonds as US Dollar's ascent continues

Trend choppy for S&P, Will need to see movement over 2080 for bullish stance and under 2030 to expect minor pullback to 2010 area, but downside overall should prove limited and expect that given bearish sentiment, this consolidation resolves itself to the upside-  Beats on Retail sales helped to trim early losses for SP, while US Dollar continuing to climb up 8 of last 9 days now, breaking minor trends and causing EURUSD to breakdown despite very good Eco data out of Germany-  Emerging mkts meanwhile facing continued pressure, Most of Asia lower, china continues to fall, and both Iron Ore, and Steel have dropped substantially this week, with Rebar's 13% drop the largest since 09-   Treasury yields meanwhile pretty rangebound near-term. and key for equities likely should be led by Yields, so key to watch when TY begins to turn-  Early movers in SHAK, NVDA, ELY higher, and on the downside- JWN, JCP, LC-   For now, until US Dollar can stallout, commodities have tempered gains, but expect to see evidence of USD hitting resistance near 95 and backing up which willl help Gold, Silver and help Crude turn higher towards 49-  Let me know if you have any questions

Tough to get too bearish or bullish on S&P given this choppy range- Expect that pullbacks still possible over next couple days, but that 2030 should hold and given sentiment, a move back to new highs is likely in June

US Dollar index has now trended higher for the last 8 of 9 days, and while getting a bit stretched, today's activity is a minor positive to the 2-3 day trend-  Commodities have slumped a bit on this strength, but DXY likely to find strong resistance near 95 and backoff a bit into late May

See AAII data released yesterday showing the Bulls to bearsspread reaching a -10, or more Bears than Bulls right now, on par with levels seen back last August, and one reason to be somewhat optimistic on equities this summer, thinking that negative sentiment will put a floor to any Equity decline