As the month draws to a close, most of the attention today revolving around ongoing Decline in US Dollar index, which has seen USD break down vs Yen even further , the biggest weekly decline since 08, while Metals rally to new 15-month highs- Commodities have had the best month in over 5 years and Fed Fund futures now show odds of a June hike falling to just 12%. European stocks lower by over 1% today, pairing monthly gains to 2.2% for EuroSTOXX with big losses out of RBA and British Airways. Sector-wise, technology losses have caused widespread underperformance in this sector to lag all other sectors for the month of April, down 2.59% and making the the worst performing sector in YTD Basis, definitely troublesome given its 20% composition in the SPX the Largest sector by percentage- Energy, Materials leading the charge for April as might be expected given USD decline while Healthcare and Financials are also showing gains of more than 4.5% for the month, more than Double the SPX. As far as S&P, the near-term trend has wavered a bit of late and the reversal yesterday puts US indices at Do or Die territory as we finish out April with any drop under 2060 likely leading to at least a 3-5 day correction before prices can stabilize. Yesterday managed to regain the area that was important for the trend from March, that being 2071 , but 2065 and 2060 important for today. It should be mentioned that yesterday was the FIRST time since mid-February that SPX had dropped below a prior week's lows, a possible warning sign but overall the trend showing an amazing amount of resilience in the last 11 weeks since the mid-Feb lows- Rallies still possible from here but will need to move up quickly given the extent of the selling of late given the downturn in daily momentum- while weekly momentum and breadth still in excellent shape and suggesting that any drawdown likely proves minimal- 2065 then 2060-1 important on the downside, while 2089-90 important on the upside then 2094-5- Favor Metals stocks into early next week and most things commodity related, but would look to take profits as we enter May, given the tendency of commodities to peak and turn down into July- (GOLD, SILVER)- Early gains out of GNW, AMZN, EXPE, P, LNKD, TIVO, BIDU, while on the downside- MOH, GLNG, SYNA, AKS, ALR, SSRCL, WDC, GILD, WRE, SWKS- Let me know if you have questions
Minor signs of weakness are now challenging key areas, which if broken- 2065 initially. 2060- SP futures, would lead likely to a 3-5 day pullback
Very little signs of weakness, with yesterday being the first time that even a prior week's lows were broken- not a sell signal per se, but just a minor warning- For now, breadth and momentumare strong enough that pullbacks likely prove short-lived
Selloff nearing last Aug lows, an area that should provide near-term support as Commodities have logged their largest rally in over 5 years this past month. Gains in metals likely stall out within 1-2 weeks
NASDAQ vs SPX nearing last Feb lows- technology has been the worst performing sector in the market over the last month, down over 2% and the worst performing for the year, so the underperformance here in NASDAQ vs SPX makes sense, but given the sectors 20% composition within the S&P, a definite headwind for the market and we'll need to see some evidence of stabilization soon.