Retail sales this am- -0.3%.. vs +0.1% but when stripping out Autos.. we see data coming in a bit better than expected0.2%. PPI- DOWN 0.1% vs expecting up 0.2%.
Equity Futures have stalled out a bit near prior highs.. but overall HIGHER by over 0.50% today and Further lift for global equities as China Exports improve with the first gains in 9 months and early JPM beat has helped Futures extend gains following yesterday's breakout- Overall, a more positive picture than what was seen at this point last week, as the threat of a larger pullback has diminished for now. Yet, on a 2-3 day basis , prices are up near key highs, and this area SHOULD provide at least some temporary stalling out.. and could pullback between today and end of week given that Futures moved higher by 2% just since yesterday morning alone- US Dollar higher this am, which is coinciding with minor pullbacks in both Gold and Crude. See charts and additional commentary below
S&P, as shown above, has surged by nearly 2%, just from yesterday's pre-mkt lows, and closing in on 2071-2 which should be a strong level of resistance in the short run, and momentum on hourly charts has gotten quite overbought near-term- Pullbacks to the mid-2050s- near the area that gave way to yesterday's breakout - 2055-6 "SHOULD" be an area to consider as very good risk/reward area to buy dips
Momentum definitely waning as might be expected on a recent slowdown in the last couple weeks, and prices now challenging highs but with indicators at RSI at far lower levels--Overall, not an ideal backdrop for a push up to new highs, and important to be selective and watch prices carefully given this dropoff, but for now, price trends remain positive and we've seen no real evidence of any pullback in prices.. so tough to sell based on this alone in the short run.. as we could see further consolidation which could help eliminate this momentum drop before pushing higher
US Dollar index bouncing this am after reaching the apex of the Wedge pattern formed over the last couple months. This rise is coinciding with weakness this am in both the Metals and a mild pullback in Crude after yesterday's highest close for 2016-
NY COMPAdvance/Decline has moved BACK to new all-time high territory- which is a bullish development and typically does NOT pay to fight- the Cumulative has NOT yet been joined by the All-stocks A/D which strips out the fixed income assets, but overall an important gauge that many people look at, and technically a move back to new highs is certainly positive
Chart patterns show a failed breakdown from the larger Advance/Decline of ALL STOCKS. and this also is much more positive than negative , and should lead this back higher to challenge and potentially move to new all-time highs.
Cash balances overall still reflect the underlying bearishness that's out there as a result of the Jan/Feb declines, and still lie near levels seen back in 08- Given just a minor blip higher in AAII and Inv Intell Sentiment in the last month, combined with HIGH cash balances and a lack of excessive optimism (CNN Fear/Greed poll) or Daily sentiment index data (DSI) , orEquity Put/call data that hasn't reached key lows.. it's still right to view sentiment as not nearly as bullish as what could be the case after a 250 point S&P rally in 2 months time