Heading into the last day of the month and quarter, Equity indices remain resilient, showing no signs of the flight to safety that we've seen into both Treasuries and the Yen in recent days. Prices have pushed back through to new highs for the year within 1% of last November's peaks, shaking off any signs of weakness, while Bond yields have gone exactly the opposite direction, trending exactly the opposite of how they've moved with stocks in the last 12 months. Momentum began to wane in stocks about a week ago, when prices broke one month uptrends, which also coincided with a dropoff in momentum and breadth. (Which also happened in WTI Crude) While prices managed to recover recent trend breaks and push to new highs, we haven't seen momentum follow suit to the same degree which should signal that the rally since February 11 is losing steam, and could be vulnerable to stalling out.
For now, 2 areas are key to watch on the downside to think that any sort of weakness is unfolding: 2047 and then 2020- Until we see at least some degree of pullback that can hold, the trend remains positive for S&P
5 min S&P charts still constructive for a probable push higher up to 2064-5- Under 2052 would be the first warning that this shouldn't happen, along with 2047 as mentioned above
Bond yields have gone exactly in the opposite direction of stocks over the last couple days,, which will need to be watched carefully given this sudden divergence- 1.85% important for 10yr TY yields.. and unless this is recouped right away, the trend remains DOWN for Yields
US Dollar weakness has accelerated in recent days and this morning, we see the DXY breaking down under mid-March lows, which opens up the door to a probable test of last Fall's lows near 93 down to 92.50. this should cause a bounce in EM, along with Materials and commodities outperformance