S&P has arrived at its next area of importance 2745-60- Next 2-3 days should be telling

February 12, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Tuesday Technical Video 2/12/19

https://stme.in/JTfDwNZlI9

Thursday 2/7 Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX, EEM, Commodities

https://youtu.be/yuWFNWZxiMI

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

SUMMARY: Good move price-wise, but it looks right to sell into SPX between 2745-60

New Long Ideas: GLW, ADBE, XLF, KRE, CSCO, PYPL, SQ

A solid rally today has carried S&P and other US indices back to the highest levels of the year, with S&P now up nearly 400 points from late December. Breadth remains a solid 3/1 positive today and we're seeing decent outperformance out of most of the "risk-on" groups, particularly with some strong price action out of Financials. (More of this covered in today's video)

However bullish today might seem, however, it does look right to consider paring back into this move as we're still seeing a bit of a slowdown in momentum in recent days given last week's mild 2-day pullback. Additionally, defensive groups are still outperforming for the week, and TNX remains trending down over the last few weeks, while counter-trend exhaustion should appear from Wednesday to Friday on many benchmark indices and sectors.

Overall, until there is at least a new two-day close to new lows, or some evidence of reversal, it is still right to maintain a bullish posture and not short into this move too quickly. However, at present, there are some minor warning signs that make taking some profits and/or buying implied volatlity seem like a good idea.

SPX- Daily- March futures- As can be seen, prices are higher than early February, but momentum remains lower. A good move price-wise, but it's right to expect a slowdown between 2745-60.

Failure to recoup early selling likely translates into 2-3 day decline

February 7, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Thursday 2/7 Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX, EEM, Commodities

https://stme.in/FEThKUou25

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Short idea: EEM, DBC- Emerging markets showing evidence of trend breaks (More on this in the Daily tomorrow am)

First real evidence of any selling which many people expected might be overdue given China trade disputes or global growth concerns, yet technically there was very little evidence to back this up until today's pullback to multi-day lows. Much will depend on whether prices rebound into the close as to whether this selloff immediately extends, and any ability to rally back over 2717 likely postpones the decline. However, momentum and breadth are starting to grow more negative, so even on rallies at this point, I expect these should prove short-lived and some kind of pullback CAN happen. However, S&P could get down to 2650 without doing much damage and requires a decline under 2722-4 (Futures and Cash) to expect a larger setback. At present, this appears like nothing more than a minor pullback after the big run-up we've had.

More importantly perhaps concerns the movement in Emerging markets and commodities which have taken a noticeable leg lower given the US Dollar's 6th straight day of gains. These groups along with China should be avoided technically in the short run over the next 1-2 weeks, and it's thought that EM likely underperforms.

This daily chart of SPX doesn't show much concern technically on today's move, but a close near the bottom quartile of today's range likely would allow for another 2-3 days of weakness. Important for the bulls that markets rally up well off their lows into today's close. The lack thereof likely brings about some selling into early next week.

Early weakness looks to have been contained- 2612, 2596 key on downside

January 28, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Monday Technical Video

https://stme.in/iyp7YQ6AIX

Thursday Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C4pV3BpUhI

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Bottom line: Trend will be bullish until/unless 2596 broken on a close- It's thought that today's early drawdown is creating a possible Triangle pattern and might hold and churn before making a final push higher to new weekly highs. Under 22596 would suggest that selling likely has begun and one should hold off on buying dips, and consider hedging for the possibility of a deeper retest into February.

For now, early day weakness thus far has been contained, and after S&P got down to near last Friday's lows, Breadth on today's decline has improved to just about a 3/2 negative. Technology is still leading all sectors to the downside at -1.5% negative, while Healthcare, Industrials and Energy are also down more than 1%. Real estate and Staples are positive and Financials has given up just a minor -0.33% on the session.

Overall, while the news out of CAT and NVDA seemed fairly bearish right on the open, the action in the broader market doesn't seem too negative thus far, and needs to show more to indicate any sort of pullback is underway. One should consider the REIT sector, and also select Financial names while groups like Industrials and Healthcare could pullback a bit more this week.

Stock indices remain near highs despite Negative BREXIT vote

January 15, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Monday Technical Video

https://stme.in/M6wlqGVhiG

Replay Link-Thursday's 1/10 Technical Webinar- "Where to From Here?"

https://youtu.be/Xy11E25HlLQ

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18-

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Heading into the final hour of trading, S&P has successfully maintained earlier gains and remains over the highs of the last four trading days. This is a positive for further follow-through and suggests that Markets likely carry a bit higher into Wednesday/Thursday before any peak. However, the presence of Demark counter-trend exhaustion will be registered in all likelihood by Wednesday 1/16, and given that many indices and sectors are showing similar signals, we're growing ever closer to areas of strong resistance that look likely to cause a stallout and reversal of trend.

The No-vote on BREXIT initially coincided with some minor pullback in stock indices and Pound Sterling, but since both have snapped back. Bottom line, important to note that most of the rally in US has come about as a result of strength from key sectors like Technology and Healthcare, and while breadth is tepid on this advance, barely 3/2 positive, it is thought to be a positive heading into tomorrow and could left S&P up to this key 2630-40 area.

Friday technical Video- CNBC today 2:25 pm

January 11, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Friday Technical Video

https://stme.in/OUYUQGJ4ed

Replay Link to Today's Technical Webinar- "Where to From Here?"

https://stme.in/hkPl0OJl7C

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18- (Will be on CNBC today 1/11/19 at -2:25 pm EST)

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Above 2596 paves the way for 2640-50 into next week before any stalling out. Today thus far has held up above prior days lows and very little sign of any weakness. Until there is evidence of at least some deterioration, it should pay to stick the course into early next week where a few cycles and Demark exhaustion could occur.

Rally term rally continues & a bit more strength likely into Wed-Friday

January 7, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

Monday Technical Video- 5 min discussion of SPX structure, TNX, Crude

https://stme.in/9RsKc9cfqZ

Thursday Weekly Technical Webinar-12/27/18- SPX, TNX, DXY

https://youtu.be/wBT_i5lsJYo

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Ongoing ability for S&P and US indices to extend gains, and still looks early to sell on most timeframes. S&P likely will get up to 2575-2590 before stalling out, and it's still right to look at this rally as counter-trend in nature of the pullback that started in September and December. Getting above 2630 is necessary before thinking prices can truly extend.

Breadth is quite positive today at 4.5/1 bullish, and Energy and Discretionary are leading the charge, while Financials and Tech are lagging as of now. Overall, this appears like a counter-trend ABC type bounce and likely should be complete by end of week. For now, its right to favor continued gains in Energy which should lead, and use further gains this week to consider buying implied volatility

S&P has moved to the 50% area of the December drawdown, yet still little signs of any real exhaustion just yet, and will require likely another 2-3 days of gains. Note, this is still considered a counter-trend rally and unlikely to get up above 2630. Targets for S&P lie from 2565-2590 and should be good to buy implied volatility and/or sell that which is overbought that has moved quickly in the last two weeks.

The declining Dollar looks to be nearing support into mid-week, so I expect the next 1-2 days should represent a good chance to sell EURUSD, and/or GBPUSD and expect the Dollar to reverse back higher.

Bullish reversal keeps short-term uptrend intact

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

VIDEOS- Click below

Wednesday Technical Video- 5 min discussion of SPX, Crude, HSCEI

https://stme.in/Ug9LCbB0GY

Thursday Weekly Technical Webinar-12/27/18- SPX, TNX, DXY

https://youtu.be/kSxKOGAZbDE

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Rally has managed to extend as early weakness failed to break 2452 and since has regained 2494- Closing today above 2494 puts rally back on track for gains into 2548-2575 area into end of week- Breadth about 2/1 positive and Energy reversal has been quite meaningful today with Crude now up to 47.20 and Energy sector up 2.5%-Dollar gains are meaningful today, and while Gold still higher, its thought that precious metals might have difficulty showing strength on USD Gains- TY Yields have bounced a bit and 2.66, while Yield curve still flattening to under 16 bps - Utilities and REITS the weakest groups, but with yields still trending down, these groups are thought to offer oppty in the days ahead to buy dips-  Tech higher by just 0.50% and will need to show more gains to expect gains can show any real followthrough-

Daily S&P charts show this mornings weakness successfully reversing back higher post Europe's close and now set to close at the highest levels since 12/19. A close above 2505 is thought to be a real positive into end of week, and should help prices extend. Today's earlier lows at 2452 are a stop for longs.

Crude oil's reversal higher coincided with a similar move in S&P and now prices are on the verge of a possible breakout (which would happen above 48.32) allowing for a push higher back to the mid-$50's in the short run. Energy is today's top performing sector and looks ripe to show some mean reversion early this year back higher (See link for CNBC interview on Energy from last Friday)

LOWS still PREMATURE, but could be in place by early next week

December 6, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

VIDEO

Today's Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

Newton Advisors Technical Analysis Video Webinar

CNBC Interviews From Last Week

• CNBC Interview on the Best Tech Stocks to Buy on the Dip

• CNBC Interview on the S&P 500 Nearing a Death Cross

• CNBC Interview Discussing the Healthcare Rally

• CNBC Interview Discussing Apple's Stock

S&P Chart and Technical Comments:

LOWS still PREMATURE, but could be in place by early next week- Use Thursday’s bounce to consider lightening up for trading, expecting retest of earlier lows

After getting down to the 2600-22 range, S&P has bounced nearly 50 handles off the lows from this morning. Yet, trends have not yet shifted to bullish and S&P is still within a downtrend from highs made earlier in the week.   Breadth and momentum are a bit better than what was seen on Tuesday, but yet given the severe pullback yesterday and today, it’s still difficult to think a low of any magnitude is in.  Interestingly enough, Treasury yields are closing in on support and given that yields diverged from equities last week and moved lower, one should keep a close eye on US 10YR yields for any evidence of bottoming (as this could be the catalyst for a steepening in the yield curve and for Financials to push back higher, along with the broader market.

For now, heading into Friday/early next week, it’s still right to be defensive and expect a retest of lows, again, but yet increasingly this should look to hold as support and start to produce some kind of meaningful bounce (and much more meaningful than today)  One should consider selling Treasuries when yields get to 2.80-2% into early next week, and to consider buying this dip in Equities, expecting that markets are starting to show MORE signs of fear this go-around on this pullback from 12/3, as evidenced by the spike in Equity put/call today and the Tuesday TRIN move above 3.25, and that any larger breakdown under 2600 likely might be postponed until January.

2697 is an important area for S&P futures to get back over that would suggest some kind of larger low might be in place. On the downside, 2600-22 is still important and one should consider using any retest of this area again to cover shorts and buy. 

Minor intra-day pullback from highs doesn't detract from early Surge

December 3, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

VIDEOS- Monday Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

Monday Mid-day Technical Video

My CNBC Fast Money interview from 11/27, live at NASDAQ

Will be back at NASDAQ tomorrow, Tuesday 12/4/18 for Fast Money program at 5:20

BOTTOM LINE: BULLET FORM

Stocks rallying on 2.5/1 Positive breadth and despite intra-day pullback, trend and momentum have improved further on today's 1% surge- 2815 important for SPX

Global risk-on rally has helped both Europe and Asia to participate, with Asia's Hang Seng China Enterprise index, breaking out of a trend which has lasted most of 2018

WTI & Brent Crude gaining 4% on Saudi/Russian pact & technically should advance to high $50's given today's move

Flight out of Defensives looks to be taking place with Consumer Staples lower by -0.60% while Real Estate and Telecom also lower and Utilities underperforming

Financials underperforming as Yield curve has dropped further to 15.65 bps in 2/10's curve, while 5/10's has dropped under 15 bps - Early gains in US 10-Year Treasury yields did not last and Treasuries are rallying with TNX down to 2.988%

SPX- DAILY Chart-

S&P daily chart shows strong overhead resistance near 2815 which marked both November and August highs for SPX, but trends have grown more positive as a result of today's follow-through. Thus, the intra-day pullback doesn't appear too damaging near-term, and Monday's gains likely should prove to be the start of the so-called "Santa Rally" as Energy, Industrials, Discretionary, Technology and Materials are all up more than 1% on the day. For now, the key area for resistance remains at 2815, and the ability to exceed this would result in more confidence in this rally extending immediately this month.

US 10-Year Treasuries have failed to show much weakness to follow suit on the recent equity rally and the positive correlation between stocks and bonds has persisted in recent days. As we pointed out last week, we had seen exactly the opposite from early October as bond yields and stocks had moved in tandem, and it appears that the Trade war truce has resulted in the 2/10 yield curve pulling back sharply to new lows for 2018. This is having a detrimental effect on Financials today which are underperforming, and additional downward pressure in yields looks likely technically as a result of today.

Broad-based rally following Powell nearly up to targets

November 30, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

VIDEOS- Friday Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

FRIDAYMIDDAYVIDEO

My CNBC Fast Money interview from 11/27, live at NASDAQ

BOTTOM LINE: BULLET FORM

Stocks showing resilience into G-20 meeting, and any hint of conciliatory tone this weekend likely viewed as a positive for Stocks-2750 Key for SPX, 6950 for NDX and 68 for XLK- Getting above these should allow for followthrough higher given bullish seasonality and bearish sentiment

Transportation stocks along with Pharmaceuticals both showed meaningful breakouts this week, which bodes well for both groups to trend higher and outperform

US 10-Year Treasury yields and Stocks have diverged in recent days for the first time in nearly two months. This trend of stocks and bonds moving together could persist near-term

US Dollar index set to finish out the month of November near the highs, and additional strength looks likely into mid-to-late December before a reversal lower into 2019

Buy ideas to consider: CQQQ, UAL, CMI, UNP, DB(Dolby), FB, FDS

Sell/short ideas to consider: BGG, WY, CAR, WDC, STX

SPX- DAILY Chart-

S&P daily chart showing prices still quite resilient and inching higher near the highs of the day. While a stallout was expected, it looks right to lean long into next week, thinking that the bar has been set quite low for the G-20, and that any hint of reconciliation and/or postponement of Tariffs should be viewed quite positively by markets next week. Overall, over 2750 is bullish for a move to 2775 and then 2810-5.

Transports showing a very bullish breakout move this week and should help this group extend higher, with TRAN targets near 11092 initially, and then 11206. Groups like Airlines and Rails also making bullish moves that should help these to also outperform.

Facebook looks close to bottoming near-term

I like buying FB  Facebook here technically for the first time in at least 6 months.  The following below are important to my thesis

I bought today at 138.75 and have stops at 133 and targets up near 155

One can add over 140.83, yesterday’s lows and then also press above 145.58 for move to mid-150s

1. Counter-trend BUYS.. using Demark are here today

2. Stock near bottom of its trend channel

3. Time cycles suggest lows are here based on symmetry to former high to low and low to low

4. Fibonacci retrace from 2012 right at 38.2%

5. Bearish sentiment getting extreme as bad news happening today and guys like Jim Cramer said being below 140 was problematic and he owned some in his trust and didn’t know what he would do   (Live on CNBC this morning – pre open)

6. Volume was heavier two weeks ago on stabilization attempt than this week

FB-  near bottom of its channel while Demark buys are present and lining up today for possible downside exhaustion.

TIME studies suggest lows should be here by next week at maximum and good bounce

Decline from July til now is half of the former low to low.

This former low at 3/26 til next Monday 11/19  is also nearly exactly HALF of the prior Low to low

These kinds of relationships are normally very important timing wise towards thinking lows could be at hand

FB- Monthly – 38.2% Fib on FB and four of five down months.  This should be very close to area that bottoms and helps this bounce to at least 155

Weekly FB chart remains a mess.. Under long-term uptrend.. but see that volume was heavier two weeks ago.

Expect that this can stabilize at a time that everyone seems to be turning against it.

Monday's selling turns Short-term trend bearish- with 2764 being important for Bulls

November 12, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Monday mid-day Video- Click the link directly Below

Mid-day Technical Video

Trend bearish UNDER 2764, and Bullish OVER.

S&P violated 2764 early on, turning the trend more negative, and now 2755 was also violated near the gap from last week's 11/6- Overall, this suggests a full retest of 2709-11 is likely before any real turn back higher, in my view. Minor rallies should be used to lighten up for a further pullback into today's close and the days ahead. Failure to recoup any of these losses tomorrow would allow for potential weakness into key cycle date 11/16 before any rebound. Breadth is down "only" around 2/1 negative, but far more volume is starting to flow into Down vs Up stocks, something which eventually (once the ARMS index gets above 2) should lead to fear finally coming back into the markets.

In recent hours, there seems to be far more discomfort with the market than has been the case initially in late October and this is slowly but surely causing sentiment to become MORE negative. However, we don't seem to be at "fear" just yet, and this looks to still take some time.

Specifically, i would note the NASDAQ extending its breakdown vs SPX in relative terms. This is a negative for thinking that stocks should bounce right away, given the Technology and Biotech weakness making up the NASDAQ. Seven sectors out of 11 today are down more than 1%, with Technology down nearly 3%. Given its 20% weighting in SPX, it's difficult for other sectors to pick up the slack.

SPX- HOURLY Chart-

S&P hourly shows the break of the trend from late October and now Friday's lows being violated. This latter point is a negative structurally and argues for a deeper retracement down to test the 50% level of our rally from 10/29 which hits at 2709. Under this level, it's likely that stocks test 2600 from late October before any low is in place.

NASDAQ vs SPX broke down last Friday and has extended this break in today's selling. This goes a long ways towards showing why no immediate snapback is likely given this breakdown given the importance of Technology to the US Equity market. Until there is evidence of downside exhaustion, and/or this chart moving back up to recapture the area of the break, this should weaken more and is a negative for stocks.

Rally still holding up well- & Friday/Monday gains are still possible into next week before stalling out- Link to Thursday's Technical Webinar & charts of interest

Link to today’s Technical Webinar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0QTkufNncA

4 sectors up more than 1% today with Materials up nearly 3% alone with the Dollar pulling back and Mining stocks and many chemicals acting well.

Breadth is about 3/1 positive, and yields have moderated a bit after early gains.  

Stocks making very good moves which are on the radar:   IIN, TNDM, CQQQ(Chinese Tech), HRTX, HUBS, TOWR, ELY, ZFGN, HD, LULU, MJ

Daily S&P-  Continued progress..  SPX broke the downtrend and oct 11 former lows.. now has extended back to yesterday’s highs

Closing here should help this move to 2743-5 area and ultimately near 2775 initial targets

S&P HOURLY-  note the appearance of 1 hourly Demark related sell. But the other is early-  thus, I expect this to continue to push higher until both are present.  At that time, markets might stall and consolidate

XLF, XLI-  as mentioned.. both ETFs managed to get back above former LOWS.. making for a bullish snapback that is a constructive move in this pattern.

This is a bullish development and likely tailwind for further market gains near-term

AAPL-  Ahead of earnings-   Apple made a very good snapback move yesterday that rebounded back above this uptrend that had been violated.  This largely invalidates this as being a Head and shoulders pattern and more just consolidation..   I expect a move back to highs, and AAPL is stronger than the FANG group and should be favored.

Bottoming Process Has Begun & 10 Negative Factors Which Led to Selloff

October 15, 2018

Summary:  Equities remain trending down from mid-September as part of the intermediate-term uptrend from 2016 and 2009.  While the downdraft was particularly severe last week, living up to October's reputation as a volatile month, it failed to do much damage to the long-term trends.  Thus, this is considered short-term only in nature as of now.  Momentum, however, has seen some damage as a result of the recent pullback when looking at weekly charts, with MACD crossing the signal line and turning negative.  Daily momentum meanwhile reached the lowest levels of oversold territory of the year and has started to diverge positively on hourly charts (a good signal for Bulls)  Arguably, last week's pullback never really gave the old fashioned "fear-based" BUY signal, as markets witnessed no real evidence of volume capitulation on the downside, nor outsized Equity Put/call readings.   Thus, it remains a tough market near-term to have much conviction that any low into mid-October is sustainable.   Seasonality argues for a sharp rally into most mid-term Election periods in early November.  Yet, seasonality this year has been remarkably unpredictable with better than average August and September performance while Q4 has gotten off to a much worse start than normal.  Overall, there stands a good likelihood that we haven't seen the last of the volatility this year, and it pays to monitor the sector rotation carefully for evidence that Technology and Financials can begin to make a more sustainable comeback after recent weakness.  Bottom line,  Long-term trends are fine, but some definite signs that markets could be entering a new stage, with momentum and growth rolling over as the search for new leadership has begun.  Failure to mount a strong rally in the weeks ahead that turns down to challenge last week's lows would be a mild concern. Yet until the long-term trends are broken, this should remain a dip to buy into, as oversold conditions as part of long-term uptrends give way to opportunity near-term.  
 

Warning Signs that gave us proper “Heads-up” about Stocks turning lower

1) Market breadth peaked in late August-  NYSE "All stocks" advance/decline along with Summation index both moved steadily lower throughout September
2) Divergences between US stocks and the rest of the world started to widen materially in August/September
3) Technology underperformance- This proved to be the true technical catalyst (25% of SPX) and peaked relatively in June and has lagged over the last few months with Semiconductor weakness particularly troublesome
4) Defensive outperformance - Looking back one month ago, Utilities had outperformed both Financials and industrials Year-to-date while showing better one-week performance vs Technology
5) Sentiment indicators like Investors Intelligence widened out to a Bull/Bear spread of +40 heading into September which largely persisted the entire month (Stock indices peaked 9/21) 
6) Stocks hitting new 52-week highs began to steadily drop off, but became particularly pronounced right before the early October part of the Decline, with stocks hitting new 52-week lows expanding to a greater number than New highs.
7) Negative momentum divergence on daily charts of SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ-  Prices had pushed back to new highs, yet momentum was lower and had failed to keep up pace
8) VIX diverged positively with the higher lows in September and early October failing to fall to new lows even as indices pushed higher
9) Demark's TD Sequential and TD Combo indicator had both signaled exhaustion signs right at the peak where stocks had topped out at 9/21, forming 9-13-9 patterns
10) Trend violation on 10/4.  While many of the factors above were in place throughout September, prices had held up in resilient fashion up until 10/4 when S&P, NASDAQ and DJIA all violated three-month uptrends from late June.  This was the first real warning sign that price was finally confirming what breadth and momentum had been suggesting for some time.  

What are the Technicals suggesting should happen now?

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Quick thoughts ahead of Call- SPX, NASDAQ breaking uptrend

Thursday mid-day call-   Webinar starts in 30 min- Details below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaa9kMW2Fl4

S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ all down more than 1%.  NASDAQ 100 down nearly 2%. 

Breadth is 4/1 negative-   Crude falling back to 75.   Discretionary, Healthcare, Tech and Communications all down more than 1%

Only Financials and Utilities positive but Financials were up more than 1% and have given back all of earlier gains

SPX, NASDAQ have broken uptrend lines from late June while DJIA is right there.  UNDER 26349 in DJIA and 7400 in NDX will be important.

But a break given this ongoing negative breadth and momentum is the first sign that price is rolling over to AGREE with what’s been going on in momentum and breadth for the last 2-3 weeks. I would view as a negative on any failure to recoup today’s decline

S&P Futures have broken 2907 the late Sept lows and also the trend from late June-   this happening at a time when breadth and momentum have already been quite weak likely means that our long-awaited pullback is likely here.  Closing today UNDER 2907 in Dec S&P Futures and 2903 in SPX cash is important and looks to be a technical negative

NASDAQ also breaking its multi-month uptrend today under 7535..  with 7400 being a more important line in the sand

TNX-  2nd day of spike in Yields.. which have definitively broken out of the 24-year downtrend

Near-term stretched.  Expect short-term PEAK in rates 2-3 days.. and down to 3.12-3.15 which should be a chance to sell Treasuries

Financials snapback, but breadth still thin- Wed mid-day Technical Video- CNBC today 2:25pm EST

Wed mid-day Technical Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQShsTX9QNg

Into mid-day. We’ve seen US equities largely hold onto early gains with S&P and DJIA trading back up to new all-time highs while NASDAQ still below its all-time highs made back on Aug 29

Key to note for today-  Financials trying to bounce, and have gained some momentum in the last couple hours. Now up 1.4% for the day.  This group has been under relentless pressure over the last couple weeks, so its tough to make too much of today’s move, but is helping markets to rally a bit more.  Breadth still only higher though by 3/2 and 4 groups down on the day-  Utes, Staples, Real estate and Materials

Importantly. We’ve seen Treasury yields move back up to new highs for the year today on 10 and 30yr yields.. yet 10year TNX shows counter-trend SELLS in yields.  So we’ll see if this matters in meaning that this yield move reverses.

But the combination of these counter-trend signals ALONG with sentiment are two important reasons to be not as bearish on Treasuries, expecting that rates could peak out.  Not extend to 3.25-3.50

We’ll see.  For now, its right to trust this yield move until/unless it reverses.. but there are now signs.. and pays to be aware of that before initiating any new bearish treasury bets

Commodities seem to be staging  a comeback.  And more on this in the daily piece tomorrow am.  BUT CCI has made a major snapback in the last couple weeks and some decent price action not only out of Energy but also Grains, Softs , Meats

I am eyeing COTTON, SUGAR and OJ as being on the verge of reversing their downtrends and ones to buy here that have been trending down .   The Coffee bounce looks to have just begun

I will be on CNBC TODAY, 2:25 PM EST

Charts below

S&P back to new highs.  Bullish technical structure.  But Counter-trend sells based on TD COMBO with Sequential 3 days away.

Thus. Not as bullish of a move given these signals. Which have caused markets to stall in the past.  For now. Seems like Friday/Monday important

But have to trust the move until/unless we see prices get under 2917 

TNX-   Rising back to new 2018 highs.  A bullish technical development.

However, getting TD SEQ sells and COMBO sells while sentiment is very bearish.  2 factors which put a bit less ammunition in this bearish TY move

I do not like initiating new TY shorts here.  But will trust the yield move for now until reversed.

Both 5 yr and 30 year look MORE likely to have yields extend over the next 3-5 trading days.  So Favor the longer end of the curve for 30yr bearish move to 3.32-3.35%

Commodities on the comeback trail.   Expect we see further gains.  But will need to see Dollar back off

CCI INDEX.  The equal-weight commodities index..  Old CRB

Mid-day Technical Thoughts- 100218- Precious Metals showing strength while Retailing fades- Tuesday mid-day Technical Video, charts of interest.. and some Shorts to consider within Retailing

Tuesday Mid-day Technical Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2Z8gV4ZsqI&feature=youtu.be

Mild rally in US while most of Europe closed down 0.75%.  Breadth negative again on rally..  more Declining than Advancing issues..

Discretionary suffering today, the largest laggard, with Retail weakness-  Dollar strength still looks to continue for 2-3 more days.. while Yields have begun to consolidate.  This move in yields LIKELY taking the form of a triangle pattern and probably can still allow for yields to move a bit higher.  But expect that both TY YIELDS and the US DOLLAR likely reverse back lower at some point in October.  For now.  Dollar moving higher today.. while yields lower.

Crude and most of Energy still positive and while getting stretched.. still right to stick with Energy

Precious metals having big session today, with both Gold and Silver up more than 1.3%..   This is increasingly looking like a good place to position for October.  More on this below

Minor bounce from earlier lows and S&P up about 15 points from earlier lows.   This pattern remains constructive unless we see prices move back down UNDER 2917 which is not expected right away today

Areas of focus-   2938-42  on upside.  While 2917 and then 2907 on downside-  with bullish bias for today

Precious metals index spiking after it looks to have formed a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern and breaking out of that today

This should be good for the Gold miners-  See GDX, NUGT as ways to potentially play this move.. or potentially considering Gold and silver futures.. for those where that’s appropriate based on appetite for risk

Retailing getting hit hard today with stocks like BBY, FL, GPS, KSS, JWN all down more than 2%  . Closing at lows should invite further selling and with NFLX now out of Discretionary sector..  This sector might begin to lag more meaningfully.     Overall,  stocks like LKQ, M,  BBY, LB, JWN, AZO all look like good technical shorts.. for those looking-  GPS, FL both down a bit too much for comfort today to initiate.  But those also laggards and should be considered shorts on bounces, technically 

Crude/Energy extending, Financials still weak- Silver on the rise- LINK to this week's Webinar, today's video, and CMT presentation on time

Friday technical Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_TdsPC3Il4&feature=youtu.be

Link to my presentation on “TIME in TECHNICAL ANALYSIS”  -  1 hour in length-  Given to CMT Association on Wednesday  9/26

https://cmtassociation.org/video/the-use-of-time-in-technical-analysis-demark-fibonacci-gann/

 Thursday Technical Webinar- 20 min-  Yesterday -  Discussion on S&P, TNX, DXY, XLF, XLI, XLK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9Qb4M6pMNc&feature=youtu.be-   

NEW TECHNICAL LONG IDEAS:   TSS, GOLF, CWT, SKYY, COLM, EXPO, WRB, ICLR, OGS, DNR

NEW TECHNICAL SHORT IDEAS:  AAL, JBLU, ALK, VMC, PCAR, FB (down to 155) , MCO,

Key points heading into the weekend-  

-Europe rolling over given Italian election results.. and SX5E falling to new 5-day lows

-Dollar moving higher for 2nd straight day into resistance.. and should be an area to buy EURUSD, GBPUSD and also buy some EEM, Materials.. as its thought that the Dollar should be on the cusp of turning back lower

-Silver has taken the lead in making a good breakout.. and Gold might be finally soon to follow- Key will be Yields stalling out along with DXY. But unusual for Silver to take the lead and strengthen materially ahead of Gold

-CRUDE extending higher again.   And CL being over 73.25 should allow for continued gains to 75-76 at a minimum.   Right to be long Energy and overweight

-Healthcare outperformed all other sectors for the month of September and continues to strengthen relatively.  Now tops on a 1 month and 3 month basis

S&P-  No man’s land-  Above 2930 positive.. any failure this afternoon and movement back UNDER 2918 is negative and particularly under 2907

NYFANG -  FANG basket.. which does include TSLA.  Has reached key area after this week’s bounce.

Expect the start of some turn back lower and FB, TSLA  weakness could spread to others .  

Energy continuing to shine, and with CRUDE pushing up above 73.25.. this sector should be overweighted for a further push higher

Key area for the Dollar-   Expect this likely stalls and turns lower

SILVER-  Very good move out of Silver today..  and with yields having stalled and Dollar up to good resistance

Silver taking the lead might help Gold also begin to strengthen-  I like being long on today’s move. But important to keep an eye on precious metals

If Dollar starts to weaken.. this group should begin to finally work.. both stocks and commodities

Thursday Technical Video, charts of interest- Gold breaking support

Thursday Technical Webinar-  15-20 min.  S&P.. XLF, XLI, Bonds, Breadth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9Qb4M6pMNc&feature=youtu.be

Stocks losing some steam in the last hour..but only if this RED SUPPORT TRENDLINE is broken would this end up like yesterday

Though back to back days down into the close would definitely tilt the odds towards a selloff and decline tomorrow into early October

Overall.  OVER 2936- yest lows would be POSITIVE for stocks into early next week-  while UNDER 2900 tilts trend negative and specifically under 2883 as has been discussed.

Breadth is flat which is disappointing for the Bulls again.. and Transports, IWM lagging badly. Both flat..   Telecom and Utilities gaining the most ground today..

Financials negative again.. Materials down and industrials just barely positive.

Tech has to be commended for showing strength.  Still difficult to be short Tech. its slowdown thus far has not resulted in any major pullback and FANG is on the comeback in the short run and has outperformed lately

For now.  2932-6 important on the upside..   while 2902-7 on the downside-  See below

The US Dollar has picked up steam over the last few hours which was somewhat unexpected given that many signs pointed to the Dollar having broken down last week

And now rallying back-  For now, the next couple days look important as resistance.. and one could contemplate

For now. Gold being hit hard on Dollar upswing.  And looks to pullback further near-term -  Gold still difficult to own as Dollar moves higher and yields have been pretty persistently strong 

For any with an interest in crypto-  We are seeing meaningful moves today in both Bitcoin cash and Litecoin.  Minor breakouts.  

These have failed in the past.  But this now marks the 3rd test of this trend and minor breakout for BCH- and weekly momentum is converging quickly to the signal line in MACD.. i.e. close to turning this trend positive.

Given the history of Nov/Dec being quite positive.  It’s worth paying attention again at a minimum.

Wed Mid-day technical Video post FOMC- Areas of importance for S&P for balance of day-

Wed Mid-day technical video  POST FOMC but pre Powell

https://stme.in/ZeCcAzx7SE

All consensus with FOMC today-  FED hikes Fed Funds 25 bps  to 2-2.25%

FOMC sees further tightening in the months ahead.  12 of 16 say a fourth hike is warranted

Removing accommodative stance and seeing GDP picking up this year.

Yields have pulled back further post FOMC on the first move post Hike.  10yr at 3.066 down about 1%-   Dollar however failed to move higher given removal of accommodative stance.. which many might see as disappointment

Market ticked up a bit higher in its first move to S&P +11 and has given up a few ticks just in the last few mins.    Financials still not acting well-   S&P 500 Financials lower by 0.50%.  Breadth still flat-  Energy, Mats, Financials, Utes and Real estate all lower.    Healthcare leading -  higher by 0.90% while Discretionary, Staples also the other sectors up by more than 0.70%

S&P hourly-   Being over 2925 is positive for S&P and any reversal back under would be a negative.

For now,  spiking up post FOMC has been seen as near-term bullish  

Financials down 4 straight days-  Disappointing for Financials not to be acting well.   For now, keeping over 28 would be a positive and allow for move back higher.

Below would be a concern 

TNX-  A stalling out in Yields.-  trend bullish but should be strong resistance 3.12-3%.

We’ll see whether Powell’s comments cause any gyrations