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S&P has arrived at its next area of importance 2745-60- Next 2-3 days should be telling

February 12, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Tuesday Technical Video 2/12/19

https://stme.in/JTfDwNZlI9

Thursday 2/7 Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX, EEM, Commodities

https://youtu.be/yuWFNWZxiMI

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

SUMMARY: Good move price-wise, but it looks right to sell into SPX between 2745-60

New Long Ideas: GLW, ADBE, XLF, KRE, CSCO, PYPL, SQ


A solid rally today has carried S&P and other US indices back to the highest levels of the year, with S&P now up nearly 400 points from late December. Breadth remains a solid 3/1 positive today and we're seeing decent outperformance out of most of the "risk-on" groups, particularly with some strong price action out of Financials. (More of this covered in today's video)

However bullish today might seem, however, it does look right to consider paring back into this move as we're still seeing a bit of a slowdown in momentum in recent days given last week's mild 2-day pullback. Additionally, defensive groups are still outperforming for the week, and TNX remains trending down over the last few weeks, while counter-trend exhaustion should appear from Wednesday to Friday on many benchmark indices and sectors.

Overall, until there is at least a new two-day close to new lows, or some evidence of reversal, it is still right to maintain a bullish posture and not short into this move too quickly. However, at present, there are some minor warning signs that make taking some profits and/or buying implied volatlity seem like a good idea.


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SPX- Daily- March futures- As can be seen, prices are higher than early February, but momentum remains lower. A good move price-wise, but it's right to expect a slowdown between 2745-60.

Failure to recoup early selling likely translates into 2-3 day decline

February 7, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com



Thursday 2/7 Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX, EEM, Commodities

https://stme.in/FEThKUou25



Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918



Short idea: EEM, DBC- Emerging markets showing evidence of trend breaks (More on this in the Daily tomorrow am)



First real evidence of any selling which many people expected might be overdue given China trade disputes or global growth concerns, yet technically there was very little evidence to back this up until today's pullback to multi-day lows. Much will depend on whether prices rebound into the close as to whether this selloff immediately extends, and any ability to rally back over 2717 likely postpones the decline. However, momentum and breadth are starting to grow more negative, so even on rallies at this point, I expect these should prove short-lived and some kind of pullback CAN happen. However, S&P could get down to 2650 without doing much damage and requires a decline under 2722-4 (Futures and Cash) to expect a larger setback. At present, this appears like nothing more than a minor pullback after the big run-up we've had.



More importantly perhaps concerns the movement in Emerging markets and commodities which have taken a noticeable leg lower given the US Dollar's 6th straight day of gains. These groups along with China should be avoided technically in the short run over the next 1-2 weeks, and it's thought that EM likely underperforms.

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This daily chart of SPX doesn't show much concern technically on today's move, but a close near the bottom quartile of today's range likely would allow for another 2-3 days of weakness. Important for the bulls that markets rally up well off their lows into today's close. The lack thereof likely brings about some selling into early next week.

Early weakness looks to have been contained- 2612, 2596 key on downside

January 28, 2019

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

Monday Technical Video

https://stme.in/iyp7YQ6AIX


Thursday Technical Webinar Link- 20 min long, discussing SPX, TNX

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C4pV3BpUhI



Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Bottom line: Trend will be bullish until/unless 2596 broken on a close- It's thought that today's early drawdown is creating a possible Triangle pattern and might hold and churn before making a final push higher to new weekly highs. Under 22596 would suggest that selling likely has begun and one should hold off on buying dips, and consider hedging for the possibility of a deeper retest into February.


For now, early day weakness thus far has been contained, and after S&P got down to near last Friday's lows, Breadth on today's decline has improved to just about a 3/2 negative. Technology is still leading all sectors to the downside at -1.5% negative, while Healthcare, Industrials and Energy are also down more than 1%. Real estate and Staples are positive and Financials has given up just a minor -0.33% on the session.


Overall, while the news out of CAT and NVDA seemed fairly bearish right on the open, the action in the broader market doesn't seem too negative thus far, and needs to show more to indicate any sort of pullback is underway. One should consider the REIT sector, and also select Financial names while groups like Industrials and Healthcare could pullback a bit more this week.

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Stock indices remain near highs despite Negative BREXIT vote

January 15, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com


Monday Technical Video

https://stme.in/M6wlqGVhiG


Replay Link-Thursday's 1/10 Technical Webinar- "Where to From Here?"

https://youtu.be/Xy11E25HlLQ

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18-

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Heading into the final hour of trading, S&P has successfully maintained earlier gains and remains over the highs of the last four trading days. This is a positive for further follow-through and suggests that Markets likely carry a bit higher into Wednesday/Thursday before any peak. However, the presence of Demark counter-trend exhaustion will be registered in all likelihood by Wednesday 1/16, and given that many indices and sectors are showing similar signals, we're growing ever closer to areas of strong resistance that look likely to cause a stallout and reversal of trend.


The No-vote on BREXIT initially coincided with some minor pullback in stock indices and Pound Sterling, but since both have snapped back. Bottom line, important to note that most of the rally in US has come about as a result of strength from key sectors like Technology and Healthcare, and while breadth is tepid on this advance, barely 3/2 positive, it is thought to be a positive heading into tomorrow and could left S&P up to this key 2630-40 area.

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Friday technical Video- CNBC today 2:25 pm

January 11, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com


Friday Technical Video

https://stme.in/OUYUQGJ4ed


Replay Link to Today's Technical Webinar- "Where to From Here?"

https://stme.in/hkPl0OJl7C

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18- (Will be on CNBC today 1/11/19 at -2:25 pm EST)

CNBCenergyinterview122918

Above 2596 paves the way for 2640-50 into next week before any stalling out. Today thus far has held up above prior days lows and very little sign of any weakness. Until there is evidence of at least some deterioration, it should pay to stick the course into early next week where a few cycles and Demark exhaustion could occur.

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Rally term rally continues & a bit more strength likely into Wed-Friday

January 7, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!


Monday Technical Video- 5 min discussion of SPX structure, TNX, Crude

https://stme.in/9RsKc9cfqZ



Thursday Weekly Technical Webinar-12/27/18- SPX, TNX, DXY

https://youtu.be/wBT_i5lsJYo

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918


Ongoing ability for S&P and US indices to extend gains, and still looks early to sell on most timeframes. S&P likely will get up to 2575-2590 before stalling out, and it's still right to look at this rally as counter-trend in nature of the pullback that started in September and December. Getting above 2630 is necessary before thinking prices can truly extend.



Breadth is quite positive today at 4.5/1 bullish, and Energy and Discretionary are leading the charge, while Financials and Tech are lagging as of now. Overall, this appears like a counter-trend ABC type bounce and likely should be complete by end of week. For now, its right to favor continued gains in Energy which should lead, and use further gains this week to consider buying implied volatility

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S&P has moved to the 50% area of the December drawdown, yet still little signs of any real exhaustion just yet, and will require likely another 2-3 days of gains. Note, this is still considered a counter-trend rally and unlikely to get up above 2630. Targets for S&P lie from 2565-2590 and should be good to buy implied volatility and/or sell that which is overbought that has moved quickly in the last two weeks.

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The declining Dollar looks to be nearing support into mid-week, so I expect the next 1-2 days should represent a good chance to sell EURUSD, and/or GBPUSD and expect the Dollar to reverse back higher.

Bullish reversal keeps short-term uptrend intact

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!



VIDEOS- Click below

Wednesday Technical Video- 5 min discussion of SPX, Crude, HSCEI

https://stme.in/Ug9LCbB0GY


Thursday Weekly Technical Webinar-12/27/18- SPX, TNX, DXY

https://youtu.be/kSxKOGAZbDE

Newton Advisors CNBC Appearance- Friday 12/28/18

CNBCenergyinterview122918



Rally has managed to extend as early weakness failed to break 2452 and since has regained 2494- Closing today above 2494 puts rally back on track for gains into 2548-2575 area into end of week- Breadth about 2/1 positive and Energy reversal has been quite meaningful today with Crude now up to 47.20 and Energy sector up 2.5%-Dollar gains are meaningful today, and while Gold still higher, its thought that precious metals might have difficulty showing strength on USD Gains- TY Yields have bounced a bit and 2.66, while Yield curve still flattening to under 16 bps - Utilities and REITS the weakest groups, but with yields still trending down, these groups are thought to offer oppty in the days ahead to buy dips-  Tech higher by just 0.50% and will need to show more gains to expect gains can show any real followthrough-

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Daily S&P charts show this mornings weakness successfully reversing back higher post Europe's close and now set to close at the highest levels since 12/19. A close above 2505 is thought to be a real positive into end of week, and should help prices extend. Today's earlier lows at 2452 are a stop for longs.

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Crude oil's reversal higher coincided with a similar move in S&P and now prices are on the verge of a possible breakout (which would happen above 48.32) allowing for a push higher back to the mid-$50's in the short run. Energy is today's top performing sector and looks ripe to show some mean reversion early this year back higher (See link for CNBC interview on Energy from last Friday)

LOWS still PREMATURE, but could be in place by early next week

December 6, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com



VIDEO



Today's Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

Newton Advisors Technical Analysis Video Webinar



CNBC Interviews From Last Week





  • CNBC Interview Discussing the Healthcare Rally





S&P Chart and Technical Comments:



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LOWS still PREMATURE, but could be in place by early next week- Use Thursday’s bounce to consider lightening up for trading, expecting retest of earlier lows

After getting down to the 2600-22 range, S&P has bounced nearly 50 handles off the lows from this morning. Yet, trends have not yet shifted to bullish and S&P is still within a downtrend from highs made earlier in the week.   Breadth and momentum are a bit better than what was seen on Tuesday, but yet given the severe pullback yesterday and today, it’s still difficult to think a low of any magnitude is in.  Interestingly enough, Treasury yields are closing in on support and given that yields diverged from equities last week and moved lower, one should keep a close eye on US 10YR yields for any evidence of bottoming (as this could be the catalyst for a steepening in the yield curve and for Financials to push back higher, along with the broader market.

For now, heading into Friday/early next week, it’s still right to be defensive and expect a retest of lows, again, but yet increasingly this should look to hold as support and start to produce some kind of meaningful bounce (and much more meaningful than today)  One should consider selling Treasuries when yields get to 2.80-2% into early next week, and to consider buying this dip in Equities, expecting that markets are starting to show MORE signs of fear this go-around on this pullback from 12/3, as evidenced by the spike in Equity put/call today and the Tuesday TRIN move above 3.25, and that any larger breakdown under 2600 likely might be postponed until January.

2697 is an important area for S&P futures to get back over that would suggest some kind of larger low might be in place. On the downside, 2600-22 is still important and one should consider using any retest of this area again to cover shorts and buy. 

Minor intra-day pullback from highs doesn't detract from early Surge

December 3, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com



VIDEOS- Monday Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

Monday Mid-day Technical Video



My CNBC Fast Money interview from 11/27, live at NASDAQ

Will be back at NASDAQ tomorrow, Tuesday 12/4/18 for Fast Money program at 5:20




BOTTOM LINE: BULLET FORM



Stocks rallying on 2.5/1 Positive breadth and despite intra-day pullback, trend and momentum have improved further on today's 1% surge- 2815 important for SPX



Global risk-on rally has helped both Europe and Asia to participate, with Asia's Hang Seng China Enterprise index, breaking out of a trend which has lasted most of 2018



WTI & Brent Crude gaining 4% on Saudi/Russian pact & technically should advance to high $50's given today's move



Flight out of Defensives looks to be taking place with Consumer Staples lower by -0.60% while Real Estate and Telecom also lower and Utilities underperforming



Financials underperforming as Yield curve has dropped further to 15.65 bps in 2/10's curve, while 5/10's has dropped under 15 bps - Early gains in US 10-Year Treasury yields did not last and Treasuries are rallying with TNX down to 2.988%


SPX- DAILY Chart-

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S&P daily chart shows strong overhead resistance near 2815 which marked both November and August highs for SPX, but trends have grown more positive as a result of today's follow-through. Thus, the intra-day pullback doesn't appear too damaging near-term, and Monday's gains likely should prove to be the start of the so-called "Santa Rally" as Energy, Industrials, Discretionary, Technology and Materials are all up more than 1% on the day. For now, the key area for resistance remains at 2815, and the ability to exceed this would result in more confidence in this rally extending immediately this month.



US 10-Year Treasuries have failed to show much weakness to follow suit on the recent equity rally and the positive correlation between stocks and bonds has persisted in recent days. As we pointed out last week, we had seen exactly the opposite from early October as bond yields and stocks had moved in tandem, and it appears that the Trade war truce has resulted in the 2/10 yield curve pulling back sharply to new lows for 2018. This is having a detrimental effect on Financials today which are underperforming, and additional downward pressure in yields looks likely technically as a result of today.

Broad-based rally following Powell nearly up to targets

November 30, 2018

Mark Newton CMT, Newton Advisors, LLC

Contact: info@newtonadvisor.com



VIDEOS- Friday Technical Video: CLICK BELOW

FRIDAYMIDDAYVIDEO



My CNBC Fast Money interview from 11/27, live at NASDAQ



BOTTOM LINE: BULLET FORM

Stocks showing resilience into G-20 meeting, and any hint of conciliatory tone this weekend likely viewed as a positive for Stocks-2750 Key for SPX, 6950 for NDX and 68 for XLK- Getting above these should allow for followthrough higher given bullish seasonality and bearish sentiment



Transportation stocks along with Pharmaceuticals both showed meaningful breakouts this week, which bodes well for both groups to trend higher and outperform



US 10-Year Treasury yields and Stocks have diverged in recent days for the first time in nearly two months. This trend of stocks and bonds moving together could persist near-term



US Dollar index set to finish out the month of November near the highs, and additional strength looks likely into mid-to-late December before a reversal lower into 2019




Buy ideas to consider: CQQQ, UAL, CMI, UNP, DB(Dolby), FB, FDS

Sell/short ideas to consider: BGG, WY, CAR, WDC, STX





SPX- DAILY Chart-

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S&P daily chart showing prices still quite resilient and inching higher near the highs of the day. While a stallout was expected, it looks right to lean long into next week, thinking that the bar has been set quite low for the G-20, and that any hint of reconciliation and/or postponement of Tariffs should be viewed quite positively by markets next week. Overall, over 2750 is bullish for a move to 2775 and then 2810-5.

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Transports showing a very bullish breakout move this week and should help this group extend higher, with TRAN targets near 11092 initially, and then 11206. Groups like Airlines and Rails also making bullish moves that should help these to also outperform.