Happy New Year !!
S&P has snapped back after declining about 1.5% in the final 5 days of the year.. and will need to make up some ground to expect it can be smooth sailing to start the year- A sharp advance this am in Futures but the trend has turned bearish from late last year, despite the low volume so a bit more is needed to think indices are in the clear- Key areas to watch start near 2262 up to 2268 on the upside to sell into this move- on the downside 2237 to 2240 important- Seeing sharp declines this am in Treasuries to coincide with S&P gains while the US Dollar also making very big move to the upside and at closing levels would constitute the highest daily close since late 2002 nearly 14 years ago- CRUDE making a meaningful rise this am up to near 55, to multi-day highs.. and should be favored for further gains to the high 50s, despite the negative seasonality for January- Last 5 Jans have been DOWN for WTI to the tune of about 2.82% on average.. but despite rising bullish sentiment. the structure remains solid for WTI and looks to extend in the near-term- Overall, a mixed picture to start the year given DOWN momentum but yet a sharply HIGHER opening gap to start the year, so a bit more necessary before believing new all-time highs can happen just yet-
2017 YEARLY Technical outlook was sent out last night around 7pm, EST. so let me know if you DIDNT get and would like to.. or if you have any questions-
5 min Technical video highlighting the 3 most important charts for today
S&P HOURLY chart showing the price action since mid-December. Overall the trend turned negative with a break down under 2256 and then 2251.. so despite being low volume.. this will need to be recouped to expect it was just a minor drawdown- overall, upside in this case should find strong resistance at 2262 up to 2268 with only a move OVER making for a bullish case for rallies into mid-month.
Crude- Daily- Today’s move is quite constructive for Crude- Long positions favored. With targets up in the high 50s- CL, USO.. OIL. Crude ETFs and Energy likely outperform. OIH, XOP.. XLE
US Dollar set to make highest DAILY Close based on today’s move since late Dec 2002 nearly 14 years ago. While counter-trend sells are close. Structurally this should still move to new highs.. and is BULLISH USD.. bearish EUR/USD