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Wednesday 4/4 Overnight developments and 3 charts of interest

Trend back under 2600 is a negative for today  and will need to be recouped to put rally back on track.. preferably back above 2607 for S&P Futures

Longs if not stopped on this early am weakness, would certainly be closed under 2568, the lows of the past hour.. as this would lead back down to test and likely break recent lows.  

Any buys here have stops at a close 2568 for 9 points of downside..  Getting back above 2607 is necessary and failure to do that today would likely suggest further selling late this week down to test Feb lows

US futures down over 1.3% this am, though off earlier lows after china’s retaliation attempts on tariffs, though this should not been seen as any sort of shock to the market, as it was widely expected.  Wilbur Ross making the point that Tariffs will only amount to 0.3% of GDP.    The real key is the implementation and how much this can lead to true negotiation.  Most of Europe also down more than 1% and Asia being hit harder when looking at Hong Kong, HSCEI, KOSPI, while Bonds are rallying, Crude lower while Gold higher.   The real volatility in commodities being seen in Grains, which were targeted under Chinese tariff threats, and Soybeans lower by over 4% this am, slipping back down under $10/bushel.  As Hourly charts show below, the failure to follow-through on yesterday’s gains is a negative this morning structurally speaking, and important to gain this back in todays’ session.  Failure and/or closing down at lows would argue for a break under Monday’s lows, taking prices down to test February lows.  

 

S&P-  The range of importance at this time lies at today’s lows.  2559, up to right near where stocks peaked late yesterday-   2607-10.

S&P requires a move back up today and back into this range to make the trend back to positive in the short run.

We’ve seen some minor rallying off early lows, but more needs to be done

 

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Soybeans pulling back sharply this am after recent breakout turned out to be false.   ETFs like DBA, which represent the Powershares Agriculture fund,  could weaken near-term and pullback to 18.22 from current 18.60.  

Treasuries have rallied this am, recouping yesterday’s loss. And given the weakness lately.  It’s a must to consider 2.70 as being very important given this trend.

Any further market volatility which causes a break of this trend would result in further TY strength and yields pulling back to 2.60

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