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Some Minor Churning, but Key support lies near 1970

Key Themes

S&P -  Neutral-  Still Range-bound. And a slowing doesn’t necessarily mean Short-   UNDER 1981 would lead to 1970 so aggressive traders would use 1981, early am lows as a stop for longs-   2004 resistance and over its proper to follow and keep longs- 

CL- Bullish- Crude move over 38 can’t be faded yet, still looks to extend on breakout above downtrend from last Summer and last Aug lows

Gold-  GC Bullish-  long-  Press Gold longs over 1280 for a move to 1310

Value Stocks LONG vs Growth stocks SHORT-    LONG IVE.. SHORT IVW

 

 

Some minor signs of stalling out in indices, but insufficient weakness as of yet to expect a lot of follow-through.   Yet there Are some signs of Treasuries, Bunds seeing demand as 10YR Yields all the way down to 1.85, so historically, TNX has served to lead SPX and important to watch if this yield pullback holds.  But for SPX FUTURES-  prices could get down to 1970 and still be within the uptrend from mid-February,, so THIS is the real line in the sand, which also lines up with late Feb highs.  Movement back over 2004 in FUTURES meanwhile would let the rally extend even further.    So 2002-2004 as resistance-  1981, 1970 support for March S&P FUTURES

 

Notable that Crude oil has pushed up through 38, yet, S&P has furthered losses early on, and this correlation certainly isn’t working as well today, though S&P has tempered losses since 530 am EST and now down just fractionally with Crude over 38—

Most of Europe lower today but well off early lows, while china finished positive after early losses took the Shanghai down over 3% early on before the late rally-  Data came in much weaker than expected on Trade data - Exports -25.4% (est -14.5%, prev -11.2%) Imports -13.8% (-12%, -18.8%) Trade surplus $32.6b ($63.3b, $51b)  Gold extending this am also given recent pullback in USD, and now today, Yields correcting, as recent data of Slack potentially shrinking with low unemployment and wage inflation accelerating could give evidence of inflation having found a bottom .  Overall, commodities should still be favored given the Dollar pullback and most of these have stabilized substantially

Also, VALUE stocks have begun to surge vs Growth in the last few weeks, following through on early year strength and should outperform in the weeks and months ahead.  Largely based on theUS Dollar falling

IVE is a way to play this long vs IVW short against

Overall. for today.  Choppy market which is NEUTRAL.  And no real directional bias UNLESS 1981 is breached, which should be shorted for a move to 1970 and under would allow for a much larger pullback

Meanwhile on the upside over 2004 would be quite positive and likely DOES occur with Crude breaking out and maintaining gains above this 38 area.  Treasury yields historically have had a bigger positive correlation with Stocks than Crude, but important to watch both.

  S&P500 futures- 15 min-  still very choppy.  No clear cut signals here.  UNDER 1981 would be a sign to lean short for 10 handles down to 1970.. but still no real sign yet of indices peaking,  just a stalling out

 

S&P500 futures- 15 min-  still very choppy.  No clear cut signals here.  UNDER 1981 would be a sign to lean short for 10 handles down to 1970.. but still no real sign yet of indices peaking,  just a stalling out

CRUDE OIL pushing back up through 38 important and positive in allowing WTI to exceed entire downtrend from last Summer..  along with getting back up above Aug LOWS from last year.  

CRUDE OIL pushing back up through 38 important and positive in allowing WTI to exceed entire downtrend from last Summer..  along with getting back up above Aug LOWS from last year.

 

GOLD-  Triangle pattern bodes well for addtl upside followthrough and move up to 1305-10 before any stalling out

GOLD-  Triangle pattern bodes well for addtl upside followthrough and move up to 1305-10 before any stalling out

Ratio of Value to growth starting to breakout-  Favor being LONG IVE.. short IVW

Ratio of Value to growth starting to breakout-  Favor being LONG IVE.. short IVW