S&P up near key resistance near former LOWS from Nov/Dec- expect stalling out.. 2-3 day pullback- Above 2005 on close for SP, this would be wrong
Gold Breakout should extend up to 1305-10 short-term
US Dollar index breakdown should cause stabilization/bounce in commodities. And Emerging Markets
Bullish Gold, Silver, EURUSD,, GBPUSD
S&P futures have retraced about 5/8 of the prior HIGH TO LOW range from last Nov to Feb lows, 308 points, and have risen 190 points in 16 Trading days
This area is significant given the prior LOWS from December along with November , and given that S&P has moved 80 points in the last 3 trading days alone, is a key area to think prices might stall out
Positives include Uptick in momentum and breadth to show a real surge that has caused Percentage of stocks trading above their 200 day MA to DOUBLE in the last 3 weeks. Additionally, Financials, Discretionary, Tech and Healthcare have all shown strength of late, which is important, from a participation standpoint. Bearish sentiment is also important and even polls like DSI still don’t reflect a very bullish stance- Mid 60’s,, despite nearly 200 points of Advance from mid-February just 3 weeks ago. Negatives include near-term overbought conditions short-term, as part of a poor intermediate-term structure. If this is a bear market rally, prices can’t afford to move too much higher without expecting a larger rally into the Spring. Given the surge in breadth, and the Laggard indices like DJ TRANSPORTATION AVG and NY COMPOSITE Recouping former lows, this is looking increasingly likely. However for a 3-5 day standpoint, this area likely could hold and produce a minor pullback before the rally continues.
Also key to mention the Drop in the US Dollar and breakdown over the last 24 hours. Mostly vs Euro, Sterling, but has coincided with Gold’s breakout of its own triangle which should help Precious metals and Materials performance while EM strengthens.