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Morning comments pre-open- Wed 2/1

Fractional gains this am in US Futures and Europe.. most indices held where they needed to and importantly. NASDAQ held its trend from early Jan, while S&P failed to take out 2251 before turning higher-  2 key positives mentioned in video surround some positive momentum divergence out of Hourly S&P futures and that Volume was much more positive yesterday EVEN at the height of the decline.. with FLAT breadth vs 3/1 the prior day which was a big clue as to the ability of prices to rebound-  Now AAPL higher up to near 127 is a real positive for Tech, while yields still moving higher and should be good for Financials..  Additionally Healthcare reaching new multi-day highs is a real boost to the market.. so the 3 of these account for more than 50% of S&P and doing well-   The UK purchasing mgr index jumping to highest since series began in 92 is notable and something to keep an eye on as inflationary pressures mount-  For today, bullish bias right, with resistance just above at 2281-3 then 2287.. which I think should be exceeded and give confidence to moving back to highs-  while 2264-6 on downside-   Advancing issues this am premkt- VCEL, AAPL, TWLO, DRYS, MPC, OKE, while on downside- PBI, SGYP, MTCH, MBLY, SN-  Let me know if you have questions

S&P nearing initial support which should provide floor on initial decline

Just past mid-day, S&P remains down near 1% but still about 7 ticks higher from when it bottomed shortly before 11 am near 2261-  the Degree of bounce will help to create some positive momentum divergence as RSI got down to near 14 and both S&P and NDX right near key trends which have held as support over the last month.  Until these are broken, this first pullback is likely one to buy into.  While the decline pulled back UNDER initial areas of support for S&P, we haven't broken the key 2251 area which would suggest a larger decline is underway-  Breadth has improved marginally to only down a bit more than 3/1 negative, while still seeing very heavy volume into DECLINING v ADVANCING stocks which is still around 86%-  so TRIN levels showing readings near 2 which often can occur near lows when an outsized amount of volume is shown in declining issues.   Dollar has given back all early gains in the past few hours. while Treasury yields have turned down a bit as well..  Small caps continuing to show MORE weakness than broader market which has been a recent theme-  For today, only Energy down more than 2% lagging all others, while Industrials, Tech, Financials and Materials all lower by 1%.   In the next few hours any further selloff should be buyable with 2257 up to 2261 being a very attractive area to buy dips with prices fairly oversold.  In the next couple hours.. getting back above 2273 by 2:30 would be fairly positive into the bell.  Until that happens, can't rule out a retest of earlier lows.. but still like buying into this first pullback.  NDX has not been down under its 10-day ma since 1/3 and uptrend still very much intact with NO signs of any counter-trend sells on any of the Tech indices, and worth paying attention to this given that this sector has been one of the strongest for market in January-  Let me know if you have any questions

S&P slips 1%, breaking under initial support

an hour into trading, we've seen S&P slip 1% to get back below the initial area of the prior breakout near 2272-5.. while NDX has pulled back to test its 10-day ma which has not been undercut since 1/3-  The UPTREND will remain intact in S&P until/unless 2251 is broken, (S&P FUTURES)..  2257 SPX cash, which would change the structure of this pattern to a more bearish scenario which would mean rallies could be sold.  For now, hourly RSI has dipped down to 14, a severely oversold level that hasn't been hit in the last few months while breadth is showing readings of 4/1 negative and volume is flowing into Declining vs Advancing issues at a very high 7.7/1 pace, which is causing TRIN to register a 1.5 reading, or very heavy 87% of all volume into Decliners vs Advancers-  This degree of selling hasn't been seen all year and while lows look closer than not in the next 1-2 days, the resulting bounce or lack thereof will have to be monitored closely-  2257-9 is important, then 2251-2 for S&P futures then 2246-  On upside ability to regain 2281 would be a real positive

Dollar challenging resistance as Futures show minor weakness

gm-  Trend remains bullish despite minor weakness in carryover from Friday- Look to buy dips- 2280, 2274-5- with expectations of a move back to 2300 and likely 2315-20 before peak-   Heading into a week with meetings in FOMC, BOE, BOJ and earnings from AAPL, FB and AMZN, we see fractional losses in US Futures to start the week, though nothing too serious technically either in US, or Europe- bond yields heading higher in Europe, most notably Italy, Portugal with breakouts while US Dollar index turning up more sharply and threatening to breakout of the entire downtrend from early January-  Euro and Pound Sterling have violated trend from January and both look to move lower.. Not much movement today out of either WTI, nor Gold, but on serious signs of Dollar strength, this could prove to be bearish for both-  Premkt movers for Mon-  DHT, XXIA, CRNT, BANC, DKS while on downside-FTI, SCSS, FIT, TPX, RGLS, OCRX-  Let me know if you have questions

Equities holding firm as Dollar, Treasury yield gains continue

US Equity futures holding minor gains , while most of Europe down about 0.50% as UBS weighing on financials.. yet Europe still stands to finish week up above 1%.  US Dollar strength continuing this am with sharp rally in USDJPY and to a lesser extent.. Pound sterling-  Yields also pressing higher, so combination of stronger Dollar and Yields is typically weak for Precious metals.. and Gold now set to drop for 4th straight day the longest run since last October- Range to concentrate on for US equities is 2289.75 on downside and 2297 on upside.  Ability to get above highs or below lows will result in followthrough, with a decidedly upside bias and expectation that S&P moves back over 2300 into next week-Earnings this am out of CVX, APD, HON, CL, GD, AAL, ABBV, and seeing strength /premkt gains in PLX, WYNN, VMW, CRR, and MSFT while on downside-   SBUX, GOOGL, CL, ATHX, and HON-  Let me know if you have any questions

Mining stocks helping Europe to rebound

Little change in S&P or in most of the world indices this am while Treasuries selling off a bit and Dollar rebounding after hitting new lows for the year and 4 straight down weeks the longest since last February..  Miners higher in Europe by nearly 3%, as metals stocks hitting the highest levels since 2014-  Despite a small bounce in DXY this am (GBPUSD lower with UK supreme court decision not likely affecting Brexit.. so pound moving lower vs USD) still seeing very meaningful technical improvement in Emerging mkts and Materials stocks in general, so this continues to be the place to be, and look to buy into any minor pullback in the next couple days if given the chance-   today's early earnings info has stocks like DD, JNJ, VNZ, LMT, MMM all mildly lower, yet no real change for S&P-  Range continues to be 2249 on downside, and 2272 on upside-  Upside movers this am: YHOO, PLX, CTIC, FCAU, GPRO, NAK-  Let mk now if you have any questions

Metals, Mining, Natural Resources stocks, and Emerging markets Gaining ground

Just about 10 min from Europe's close, we've seen some pullback in US Equities which has taken S&P down to near the lows of this minor channel from 1/12 and 2254-5 will indeed be important.. under leading to a test of 2249, but NOT TOO MEANINGFUL thus far.  KEY developments-  Dollar decline really serving to boost EM space. and ETFs to consider for the next 3-5 days-  EEM, EWZ, GDX, GLD.   Most things Metals and mining related still in good shape and liquid Emerging mkts ETFs are definitely FAVORED during this time as Dollar falls.   Breadth is pretty evenly mixed.. and only 2 sectors down more than 0.75%.. that being ENERGY and industrials.  while Tech, healthcare, discretionary, materials, staples just showing fractional losses.. while Real estate.. Utes, and Telecomm all doing well today..    Overall, Favoring Natural resources and emerging mkts is a key theme while Dollar is falling.. and looks to offer some attractive risk/reward for buying here and holding over next week or two

GDX still quite resilient. Made some headway in getting above this downtrend and should continue higher near-term as US Dollar falls

Dollar extending losses, as Earnings season kicks into full gear

gm-  Fractional weakness by US index futures this am, along with Europe as we enter one of the busiest days of the Earnings season.. MCD beat early on.. and higher, while HAL lower.. Key movement lower in the USD this am, and addtl weakness likely.. which should be good to sell UUP, YCS, EUO, while being Long Euro vs USD for move up to 1.08-1.0850..  Metals also doing well.. Gold back up to former highs and has a chance to move to 1245-50 on a move up above 1218 while Silver has a chance of getting to 18 before this rally stalls-  Interest rates have stalled a bit today after a sharp couple days of gains in yields.. but also should continue higher and quite positive-  Overall the combination of Tech, Industrials doing well while sentiment has gotten more subdued should help indices break out to the upside out of this consolidation, and a constructive pattern overall-  For today.. Short-term levels at 2258 on downside, then 2253-5 while 2263 on upside then 2270-2-  Let me know if you have questions

Markets attempting to breakout to the upside, but 2270-2 is important

10:00-  Mkts now trying to break back out to the upside-   S&P hugging the 2270-2 area, not dissimilar from yesterday's attempt to break 2260, which eventually gave way, then snapped back.  Breadth about 2/1 positive-   NDX already back to new highs.. which is notable.. since this NEVER broke down yesterday to new daily lows.. and just fractional losses..  Telecomm up 1.2%.. Staples and Materials next in line, both up .80%..  Tech up 0.75% and only industrials lagging.. which showed huge outperformance yesterday.. so for now, benefit of the doubt still goes toward the Bulls and path of least resistance remains higher

S&P's snapback yesterday could help it play catchup to Bond yield Breakout

gm all-  Mild gains in futures this am while yields pushing higher across the globe.. small gains in US Dollar index with UK retail sales falling at fastest pace in 5 years hurting pound sterling- (would assume BREXIT complications likely weigh on Pound further in the months ahead and help Dollar turn more sharply to the upside)   2 Key developments heading into today's Inauguration-  Treasury yield breakout.. which happened the other day and happening around the globe with Bond weakness resuming.   and Industrials also breaking out thanks to the Rail stocks.. but as a group, also have turned higher in relative terms and seems likely to continue-(note- GE rev miss has stock down about .40 cents from yesterday's close.. we'll see what effect this has on the group)   S&P ended up HOLDING where it needed to yesterday , right near the 50% retrace of the 12/30-1/6 rally.. along with pivot support.. and this 2253 area important intraday, but got BACK up over 2260 which was thought to be overall a more important area to hold by END OF DAY-  indices had a chance to accelerate lower yesterday and DIDN"T.  For today- 2270 now important on the upside for a close and movement above should drive to 2276-7 and above to near 2290 as range initially should be resolved by UPSIDE breakout.. not downside most likely, as stocks end up FOLLOWING Bond yields-   Early on.. strength out of SWKS, SGYP, MRK, NE, CF on the upside- while PSTI, AFMD, BMY, and STML down-   Let me know if you have any questions

Late day snapback could help S&P regain area which was broken

30 mins to go.. indices had shown some brief signs that they could be breaking.. as per both S&P getting under 2260 and DJIA undercutting late Dec lows.. but yet we didn't see anything of the sort out of NASDAQ and RTY arguably remains near the lower channel of its own pattern.  Despite today's underperformance, Russell 2k arguably still hasn't really broken down-  TY yields managed just a small pullback from earlier yield highs but USD has given up much of early gains while Gold has gained ground in the last couple hours- Breadth, which worsened to around 4/1 negative has since gained some ground and now 3/1 down- Industrials still leading thanks to Rails.. but Energy and Healthcare have been the sectors that have worsened in the last couple hours..  NOT Technology nor financials.  Overall a close down at today's lows would be worse heading into tomorrow and whats in store than rallying back to recoup earlier losses.. For now that seems to be happening in the last few mins, so the area at 2260 SPh7 looks to be important, while 19718 key for DJIA-  bottom line, no clear cut intra-day signal as of yet with 30 mins to go.. and indices are sitting at important levels

Narrow range could lead to breakout into/post inauguration

as of 1:30.. S&P still showing mild losses with breadth about 3/1 DOWN.. Only Industrials and Telecomm are higher today, all other sectors lower, led by Real estate while Materials, healthcare and financials all down by 0,.50%-  Key Developments for today focus on 2 things-  Treasury yields breaking back out to the upside after recent consolidation.. and Industrials attempting to breakout which is largely just RAILS (CSX was higher by 20%) , but a meaningful move in both the absolute and relative charts of industrials vs SPX and should lead this group to outperform in the near-term-  For now this yield breakout has not yet been followed by Dollar index, though it is positive today but will need to clear 102 which would result in a much bigger breakdown in Precious metals- -  For S&P-  UNDER 2260 would be an initial warning but really under 2249 necessary while climbing back above 2270 turns the near-term clearly bullish-    For now, consolidation has not damaged the technical trend over the last couple weeks, which is growing narrower and narrower, leading up to a breakout -  Let me know if you have any questions

Trend range-bound, but positive- Ongoing resilience in SPX amidst uncertainty

No real change in US equities ahead of today's housing starts, jobless claims- ECB left rates unchanged as expected, reaffirming the drawdown in asset purchases to 60 bil from 80 euros-  Dollar marginally weaker vs Pound, euro, and gold and most metals lower today while crude staging a rebound.  Treasuries also weakening, but much more in Europe.. but key to note , Ten yr treasury yields testing important trendline resistance and above 2.43% would allow for a much bigger Yield rally which in turn should help financials-  Important for S&P to note, range has been getting increasingly more narrow of late, with 2260 as support , 2270 as resistance and breakout move getting closer which likely follows inauguration-  For now, most things support at least an initial move higher out of this range, which in turn might prove short-lived-  CSX, OCLR, NFLX, MNK, CHKP, TSLA, PLX, MTG all meaningfully higher by 5% or more this am, while Decliners include RCII, ZYNE, AKS, and GNC-   Let me know if you have any questions

US Dollar weakness boosting commodities further

Good Morning..  indices fractionally negative in US while most of Europe finished higher, despite UK down.. Most of the overnight volatility and for this am concerns the US Dollar index selling off further, as Pound sterling jumps the most since 2008 and Theresa May attempts an orderly BREXIT. but Trump also talking down the Dollar.  This should be a source of strength for commodities and we're seeing both WTI Crude and Gold higher by 1.5% while Treasuries also up, with yields lower by 5% to 2.33 on 10yr TY-  S&P up about 8 handles off earlier lows and key levels are 2257-8 and then 2248 while as resistance- 2270 and 2276-7-  UNTIL/unless we see prices violate lows of this consolidation, it remains right to bet on an upside breakout of this range for futures that would take prices up to 2285-2300 into inauguration before any kind of selling-  Premkt movers for today:  FWP, CWEI, TENX, CDE, RAI, NE HIGHER, while on downside-  ADHD, UEC, and MNKD-  Let me know if you have any questions

Financial earnings, Commodities in focus

Fractional gains in S&P and in Europe this am.. bonds and dollar showing mild gains while Gold, oil slightly negative this am-  Bank earnings slowly trickling in, with BAC, JPM not showing too much change post earnings, but from a first glance, look positive-  XLF in general has held up quite well in recent weeks despite yields pulling back and looks primed to breakout to the upside-  For S&P , 2270-1 important as initial resistance, above 2271 in futures drives prices up to at least 2285 while 2260 is first support and pivot levels to buy on any weakness-  Yesterday's snapback rally leaves the structure very much intact and tough to make much of this as anything other than ongoing consolidation with prices likely to move up out of this to the upside into the inauguration before any weakness ensues-  Key gainers for this am:  SN, P, DRYS, MNKD, GRUB, DXCM, while on downside-  URRE, DFFN, FCAU,

Financials resilience, w/ Transports, Tech Healthcare working, still good for SPX

Stocks largely unchd for today in US futures, similar to Europe, while Asia finished moderately higher-  US Dollar gaining ground early on ahead of Trumps speech, the first press conference since last July, while little real volatility in the bond market for US.. Both Gold and WTI Crude not showing much real net change-  Sideways action overall in S&P and DJIA should lead higher given Financials resilience and the start of industrials rallying thanks to Transports, Airlines, while Tech still looks to have more to go-  Divergence with SPX for now, not too big of a deal for NDX, but would be ideal to see indices moving up in tandem.. and for now, rallies have occurred on sub-par breadth, but yet structurally, all remains intact-   Good to use weakness to buy near 2254-5 for S&P this am, while on upside 2271 then 2277-8, the same range S&P has been in for some time-  Look to avoid Energy and Staples,  while favoring Tech and healthcare and increasingly, industrials which could make a final push higher-   Let me know if you have any questions

Crude showing evidence of breaking down

Market continues to be choppy near-term, but NDX showing very good strength and weakness in S&P has proven insignificant, as we bounced one time from support near current levels and now pullback has moved down to retest this level.   Key Technical developments focus on WTI Crude breaking down under 52 which is a negative and should allow for more weakness this week and likely into next before bottoming-  Heating oil started this move, while both WTI and Brent have caught up quickly-   Healthcare still far and away the best performing sector and a real boost in Biotech today which continues to improve while Pharma also showing good strength-  Breadth only around 3/2 negative and still seeing both Technology and Healthcare positive which are definite good signs for the broader mkt-  Materials also fractionally positive today while Energy and Utilities down the greatest, both selling off by more than 1%.   Bonds gaining ground with 10yr yields at 2.37 and while seemingly close to lows in yield.. very well could get down under 2.33 before a yield rally gets underway..   Best performing stocks today - GPN, VRTX, NVDA, WDC, all up more than 2.5%.. while on downside-   SWN, RRC, DVN, DVA, TROW, RIG, COG all lower by more than 3% and energy a definite area of weakness given whats going on and could continue to be.. while Healthcare keeps strengthening-  Let me know if you have any questions

Iron Ore, Steel, Copper turning back higher

good am-  Stocks mildly positive w/ UK leading Europe higher up 0.50%, little net change in DXY while Treasuries showing mild losses, & outsized gains this am in some of the metals w/ Iron Ore, Steel Rebar, Copper all showing decent technical moves to multi-day highs.. Prec metals meanwhile fractionally lower and Crude attempting to stabilize after yesterday's breakdown-  Trend in Equities remains pointed higher, particularly in QQQ which is growing extended yet bullish and some minor divergence with SPX and DJIA and TRAN, IWM as well, with both of those having peaked in mid-December-   For now, NASDAQ should lead, and tough getting too cautious here without at least some evidence of prices starting to turn back lower-  For now, pays to stay long and sell into rallies in the next couple days as Markets approach anniversary to last year's major lows, which also could prove to be important , TIME wise, this year-   Area important for S&P futs- 2260-1 near overnight lows hit near Midnight- then 2254-5 on downside- for resistance- 2271 then 2277-8- Would keep an eye on stocks heavily correlated to Iron ore, steel, copper today as these are all showing technical progress that should lead higher in the Metals near-term-  Let me know if you have any questions

Rally looks to be back on track near-term; Healthcare Favored, XBI XPH

gm-  Technical Analysis Video Webinar, 15 mins.  Today 1pm eST-  

Dial-In Number (United States): (701) 801-1211, Access Code: 840-955-999
 Fractional losses this am in S&P, but trend has turned more positive with yesterday's advance and this weakness likely a good buying oppty with support down at 2254-5 for a push higher- with 2267-72 important. but over 2269 on a close for March S&P futures likely sets in motion the move to 2290-2300-  For this am.. Ongoing consolidation for US Dollar.. and Yields.. the latter which have pulled back of late, closing the spread between German Bund yields and TY-  GOLD rising again this am, along with Aluminum and zinc.. but getting close to areas to consider trimming longs and/or going the other way.. as US Dollar index not likely making any sort of a meaningful peak, and recent weakness likely buyable for move back to highs which in turn should be negative for the metals-  Crude bouncing back meaningfully today.. recouping about 50% of Tuesday's loss.. and never quite broke down.. so still in consolidation mode-   KEY DEVELOPMENT yesterday concerned the move in Biotechs to breakout which joined the XLV in moving up ABOVE the downtrend from JULY-  this bodes well for further upside progress in this group in a time of mean reversion. and many of the WORST performing stocks from last year.. ie   ENDP, FSLR, TRIP, PRGO, VRTX, ALXN.. which were all down 30-70%..  are now the BEST performing in these first few days.. while last year's BEST-  NVDA.. has begun to pullback-  BOTTOM LINE Favor Healthcare.. and XBI, XPH, XLV, and buy the laggards, vs looking being much more selective in Financials, industrials.  but this rally yesterday likely does set in motion the start of at least a 3-5 trading day rally in US indices-  The HIGH level of sentiment, and counter-trend sells though likely prohibit this from being much more in the month of January.   KEY movers: UP-  HALO, PIRS, CEB, CTIC, SYN, GNCA, SHLD, ALXN, BIOS,  while on the downside- KSS, M, HRTX, HLX-  Let me know if you have any questions.  

Healthcare showing signs of bottoming

gm-  Will be on CNBC today 3:30-340 est-  Minor gains for S&P while most of Europe is flat/marginally lower-   Japan's NIKKEI finished up 2.5% its largest gain for the new year since 2013-   Crude and Gold both fractionally positive-  Key to note.. Healthcare gradually showing more signs of bottoming..  Sector has outperformed over the last month and now DRG, the Pharma space, broke out yesterday, which should bode well for further gains in this group- European Financials also broke out and should do relatively better than US-  think DB, CS, and BCS-   Equities meanwhile have bounced back up to near area of the breakdown from last week, but will need to show more to think all is in the clear- 2269 being key to exceed for S&P while 2239 important on the downside, and 2228-  Commodity wise, Gold looks to extend gains and should reach 1185-1200 before turning back lower-  Key gainers for today-  Let me know if you have any questions

Healthcare vs SPX.. gradually bottoming out