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Tuesday 5/1 Blog

9am Tuesday am -5/1/18

Trends likely should continue lower in equities to challenge  4/25 lows at 2611 in S&P futures. Under 2640 on an hourly close likely takes S&P down to 2633, 2620 and ultimately near 2611 which is  more important area for S&P.    Prices have grown more negative in the last 20 mins while Treasury yields have also backed off and the Dollar has hit areas of important resistance.   This should be a time to fade the Dollar’s move and buy precious metals in the next 12-24 hours,  while Crudes weakness also likely represents a buying opportunity at 67 for a rally back up to near 72.

 

 

11:30-  Tuesday am  5/1/18

 

S&P has tried to bounce a bit in the last 15 mins,  but had violated initial support and accelerated with breadth now at around 3/1 negative and volume even heavier into Down vs UP stocks at around a 4/1 ratio.  TRIN currently at 1.4-  Bonds have reversed early gains and higher, with TNX now at 2.97.  US Dollar has moved sharply higher today vs Euro .. EURUSD now under 1.20, but very stretched.  DXY should be up near key areas , but showing real strength and no evidence yet of reversing and WTI and GOLD have pulled back further. Gold down to important 1300 level-  4 sectors now down under 1%- energy, industrials, Materials and Staples, while Technology holding onto fractional gains with QRVO, SWKS, WU, INTC, TTWO MU all up over 1%..  Financials also only down 0.50%.. So the relative strength in these two.. For now, has helped market avoid a larger decline-  Overall, expect this bounce to fade and lead to addtl weakness  and 2626 important on pullback for SP Futures

Technical shorts listed in this am's piece-  GM, HOG, STX, CBS, CMCSA, VIAB, AAL, LUV, SMH, AMAT, MCHP, NTAP, IBM, BBBY, EMN, PCAR, CLVS, MNK

Of these.. I would lean on Tech stocks that are positive today.  AMAT, MCHP, NTAP..  And would still short SMH, IBM, and VIAB which is just starting to break