Busiest week of earnings season, but US Equities have shown some evidence of this rally from early April peaking out and despite today’s minor bounce attempt, it should pay to be much more selective and be on the lookout for any failure in this bounce into 4/25 and reversal back lower. Treasury yields have stalled out after their brush with 3% while the Dollar has continued to bounce, up 5 straight days and getting above earlier April highs which is coinciding with commodities backing off. Overall, Technically its right to enter the back half of April with a bit more of a defensive stance.. looking to sell rallies and adopt hedges given Implied volatility having been cut in half over the last month, while Structural issues remain for US equity charts.. and negative weekly momentum while Semis have begun to lose favor and Financials are underperforming.
S&P Futures- Trend turned negative late last week with break of uptrend from early April, so bounces today into Tue/Wed should be used to take profits and/or adopt hedges
Upside resistance lies at 2684, while 2666 and then 2659 are both important being earlier overnight lows and then Friday’s lows
Lots of focus on 10yr Treasuries as yields got to within striking distance of 3% before backing down today from earlier highs.
Spreads between German Bunds and Treasuries are likely to contract in the days/weeks ahead and German Bunds look better to sell than TY, which looks stretched after 11 of the last 16 days higher in yield terms. The area near 3% should be very strong resistance and the combination of Demark TD SELL SETUPS in yield along with bearish TY sentiment and near-term overbought conditions for yields make this better to BUY Treasuries here, vs expecting a move over 3.05% up to 3.25%. This area near 3% should be good resistance. Note today’s move in German bund yields up to .63 bps. And expect these yield gains should continue
DXY- US Dollar index has now been higher for 5 straight sessions, with today’s move getting up over early April highs and managing to show minor breakout above a downtrend from last Fall.
Though the trend from the Dec 2016 highs/early Jan 2017 still hits at a higher level. Shown in RED.. near the 200-day ma for the DXY
Today’s rally is a minor positive, but will trigger counter-trend TD SEQUENTIAL sells as early as tomorrow
For now, this has not happened.. and this looks to be a counter-trend rally at a time when many have doubled down on Euro longs
Commodities backing off today on Dollar strength.. and both WTI, and Gold lower
Bitcoin Cash. BCCUSD- Absolutely surging this am..up over 25% and nearing prior peaks from February-Has dramatically outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the last week, so worth paying attention to
See the extent that Bitcoin Cash- BCC- has begun to outperform Ethereum, and this relative chart shows BCCETH broke out above former highs from late March and should still allow this to outperform in the weeks ahead. But a dramatic move today which is showing huge upside acceleration