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Minor Stalling out, but Crude remains today's key focus on weakness

2.5 hours to go:  Minor losses, but not much overall weakness, but just some initial evidence of stalling out- Most of Europe fell to close negative on the session, and Bonds are rallying in the US, with yields on 2, 5, 10, 30 all dropping off.  Decliners just barely edging out Advancing issues, but volume is stacked at around 2/1 into DOWN stocks vs UP-  Crude oil very much back in focus over the last few hours given higher than expected Inventory data with big builds in Distillates and Gasoline and Crude has fallen nearly 4% today, erasing yesterday's gains and getting down to make-or-break area at 44-44.50-  Until 44 is broken, Crude could easily bottom out and rally back, so this level is key-  Meanwhile, Gold is rising nearly 0.60% or 8, but recent data suggests CFTC net longs are higher than levels hit back in 2011,  but at 315k net long contracts for Spec Non-Commercial, while Hedging data is at -340k, this shouldn't spend too much time rising before turning back lower.   For now, no real dramatic change in prices, nor in outlook, but most of today's volatility centered around Crude losing steam which is hurting Energy while falling Yields are causing some selling in Financials-  Otherwise, key range for S&P is 2139 on downside which was hit earlier, than 2133 and on upside- 2148, 2152-  Gainers for today: LVLT, CF, CMG, NEM, MOS, AET, K, STX, all higher by 2%+ while on downside: CHK, HES, DO, EQT, COP, largely all energy related, with 9 out of worst 10 S&P performers all Energy

Crude falling, but not substantial technical damage and likely that 44-44.50 can try to halt this decline-   UNDER 44 on a close, it would be far more likely that a larger pullback could happen into the lower 40s

 

Per the Citigroup Economic Surprise index-  US Economic data has begun to exceed expectations of late, something which goes along ways towards describing why we've seen such a big uptick in yields lately and also Copper starting to turn up more forcefully-  this minor breakout in pattern should allow Economic data to continue faring better than expectations and would expect that bond yields and Copper likely also trend further to the upside