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Risk-On Environment Dominates for Global Assets as polls indicate BREMAIN having slim lead

Early HUGE gains ahead of of UK results which is more about Uncertainty passing following most polls continuing to show higher likelihood of BREMAIN vs BREXIT- but Fear levels had carried Implied vol in the UK equity index option skew to highest since 2008, while VIX also spiked hard despite very little underlying movement in indices-  A few things to note Technically-  Pound Sterling and USDJPY showing big 200 pip moves today, as Dollar index fades back under June lows-   2) Global yields are rising again, noting both German BUND yields and TNX moving BACK into prior range on 2, 5, 10s.. which is important 3) Financials have begun to act better, along with Healthcare stabilization and Technology, all three underperformers but NECESSARY & given % of SPX, a definite TAILWIND for stocks - Overall a definite amount of resilience AHEAD of results as markets have seemingly "Front-Run" the Vote- but today's futures move puts this within 1.5% of All-time highs amidst a SEA of pessimism, and positive result will only push Global risk assets even higher in my view and Technicals suggest remaining long and expecting a push back to new highs-  Early gainers in OCN, OGEN, QUNR, ARQL, MU, BBRY, RACE, MOS, BKS, while on downside- RHT, WLL, BBBY-   Pivots for S&P Sept futs-  support- 2081, 2072-3, while on the upside- 2096-7 and then 2110-1- but movement over 2110 should result in a test of all-time highs, potentially into early July-  7/3-8 area which is a huge timezone for potential trend change- For now, the combination of BREADTH, momentum, and Participation in Risk-on sectors suggest betting on New all-time highs, not on a big decline

S&P early futures gains put this within 1.5% of all-time highs, and despite polls showing a close Result, the Risk-on trade has dominated in an environment of fear prior to the result, which should only accelerate afterwards- Obviously a BREXIT vote could erase much of this, but the DOWN TO THE WIRE tends to emphasize SAFETY and lack of RISK-TAKING, which likely steers UK towards staying in

Referendum has shifted ever so Positive for BREMAIN , for UK to remain within EU just in the last couple days, and equities have followed suit to these polls suggesting NO move

 

A big technical positive to See SXXP move back up above prior highs, a technical development that favors additional gains.  We've seen that play out already in recent days, DESPITE the uncertainty