S&P down 0.50% ahead of Jobless Claims and its post FOMC surge has nearly been erased, with prices now right down to the first important area of support, formed by the prior spike high right near 2050, which of course, has been important before. Overall, trends will be positive until/unless 2034-5 is broken, the area that was tested 3 times yesterday. While stilll expecting the S&P can claw its way out of this potentially, avoiding the weakness being seen in most of the world.. this area will be the true Make -or-Break and its right to be BULLISH above 2035 and bearish below.
Being bullish US stocks is balanced against being short Europe (STOXX 50) and long US Treasuries, German Bunds with rates still in downtrends... WTI Crude attempted to muscle back up above 38 and failed last night and that is the key line in the sand for WTI.. BULLISH above, bearish below- issues with Momentum and breadth waning thus far haven't been an issue for US stocks, though the precipitous drop in USDJPY down more than 1.25% is a concern and Japan has dropped 17+% in the first 14 weeks of the year, certainly NOT what BOJ expected during its NIRP and QE-
So this could weigh on stocks potentially as SPX has moved more closely with USDJPY over the last 2 years than nearly any other instrument- and positive correlation between USDJPY, SPX remains elevated above 0.50- (BUT STILL LARGELY has NOT WORKED since mid-February) Precious metals bouncing. as gold back up above 1235 while DXY unchd.. and weakness coming solely from Dollar vs Yen, while consolidating vs Euro after big move last week. For now, its right to think that the prior correlations are definitely showing some evidence of being unwound.. that with Crude and SPX and now USDJPY and SPX, both which have been strong in the past, and likely would have caused far more followthrough from SPX last week to the downside as Crude fell and now this week with USDJPY falling.
If SPX can hold up in the wake of a plummeting USDJPY and EUROSTOXX and DAX falling precipitously, that would be something indeed- Momentum and breadth as has been mentioned have been quite weak in the last couple weeks for US Equities, but this constant sector rotation is serving to keep things afloat , with the Attacks on inversions supplying a bid to the potential candidates in both Healthcare and Energy while Financials remains the weak link. For now.. Important to keep an eye on 2034-5 and until violated. its right to buy dips