Just when you thought April Fools couldn’t get any more cruel, Fridays Post NFP trading proved to be one for the record books. The S&P pull the ultimate prank in bouncing about 7 points after a largely satisfactory Jobs number (215k jobs, Good wage, participation data) Ok, Jobs good, market good, right? Wrong.. April fools.. The market then turned on a dime, giving back all of its early gains, proceeded to give all the gains back, and then some. Prices undercut support at 2040 and moved down nearly to 2035 . Ok, so NFP manufacturing data (-29k ) was the worst since 2009.. Crude is moving lower.. S&P SHOULD follow suit..right? Profit taking.. Overbought conditions.. April Fools again !!!! the market snapped back, surging back up to, and OVER its early morning highs, and is currently HIGHER on the day.. (Wait? April Fools, or not? )
SPX and Crude had moved neck and neck since the latter part of last November up until about a week ago
SInce that time, the divergence has grown quite large, the biggest in the last few months, where Declines in WTI and TNX for that matter, have had little impact on S&P, outside of intra-day pullbacks
Crude continuing lower today, despite snapback in SPX which has ignored the 3% decline. Could this correlation finally be ending? Too soon to tell, but Crude downside targets lie near 36, then $34.50-$35.
S&P held where it needed to, yet again. Would need to violate 2020 to have real concern
Healthcare and Staples are showing today's best outperformance, while Energy and Industrials are down- Financials being the 3rd best performing group is surprising given the degree to which TY Yields are weak, and under 1.80%