Stocks finished down just fractionally Thursday to finish out the month and quarter after a bit of backing and filling in the last couple days. Patterns have gotten overbought in the last week, and despite some minor consolidation, really haven't shown any evidence of falling. Trends remain bullish, but momentum continues to wane, and appears like a larger move is coming given the brief flattening out in volatility after a very volatile January and February. March proved to be quite tame in that regard. Looking over the last couple days, Treasury yields have continued to decline, with today's movement in the 10-year yield taking this down under 1.80%. This needs to be watched carefully given that the correlation has historically been high between Yields and Equities.
Treasury yields fall precipitously, and typically do tend to lead Equities, so TNX is something that most should be watching outside of the SPX
S&P trend isn't too bearish just yet. and would need to violate 2047 which in turn would take prices down to the mid-2030s level,, with 2020 being the support to watch carefully if broken, which would suspend the rally and suggest a larger pullback under 2000 is possible before this rally can continue
For now, the trend remains positive for Equities but definitely a concern to have Crude stall out while TY YIELDS turn down in fairly dramatic fashion. As said here before, Yields typically have won the battle between stocks and bonds and stocks have followed suit if Bond begin to rally (Yields decline)
EURUSD looks to have broken out on Thursday's close. Much depends on the Jobs data as per immediate followthrough, but all things being equal, this is a bullish move for EUR, and should help this move higher to test 1.17. Any weaker than expected Jobs number would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar, hurting our currency while boosting commodities