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S&P now less than 1% from Late Dec peaks, Highest levels in 2016

Just when you thought yesterday's rally might have been uncalled for given the uncertainty of the "Kick the Can" rhetoric coming in much more dovish than the Fed Presidents' speeches last week, S&P is following through on yesterday's surge with another 0.50% Pre-mkt jump with NAZ futures up more than 1%.    ADP data came in better than expectations at 200k last mth, above expectations of 194k, but the US Dollar still held onto losses, as the recent rolling over still looks to fall further, which should prove to be a boon to commodities and Materials stocks as Emerging mkts attempt to recoup some of the recent losses

KEY FOR S&P lies near 2052 on the downside, while any move above 2061 should lead straight up to 2075, near the highs made in LATE DEC without much trouble-  We'd need to see a complete reversal back down under 2040 at this point to change the structure in a fashion that would be negative.  For today into end of quarter..prices are quite overbought, but will be tough to sell into until we at least see some evidence of rolling over-  UNDER 2052 initially and then under 2040

Most of Europe and Asia are higher this am, outside of Japan, while WTI Crude has managed to recoup the prior lows that were breached , and higher this am up by nearly 1.5% to 38.80.   At this stage, S&P lies less than 1% away from late December highs at 2075, from where the parabolic waterfall type decline happened into Jan 20- 

Amazingly enough, this entire pullback into mid-Jan and mid-Feb has nearly been erased.   Most investors are scratching their heads saying, "I missed the lows again, how could i forget, that i should always, always buy dips.  For now, prices seem more intent on reaching former highs than paying attention to any of the warning signs that are just now beginning to creep up on this rally,  that being a dropoff in momentum and breadth over the last week, a big rally in treasuries, while CRUDE is finally showing some evidence of slowing as well in the last week, with trend breaks and Moving average crossovers that are now being ignored on this bounce from yesterday's lows

Summation index, an addition of the values of the McClellan oscillator, which itself is a smoothed version of a way to view Advance/Decline data, has surged back to new highs

 

Meanwhile, when looking at Breadth in the last 2 months, we've seen a strong enough thrust higher to expect that highs should definitely be tested, if not exceeded going into SPRING.  Gauges like McClellan Oscillator hit extremes and has pulled back a bit in the last week while the Summation index moved ABOVE levels hit all of last year..  The percentage of stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day ma have risen sharply in recent weeks, with Percentage above 200-day tripling off the lows, while Percentage above 50-day nearly hitting 90%.  Definitely a huge surge in breadth that's definitely more important in the near-term than the uncertainties regarding the FED, or geopolitical risks, or earnings shortfalls, or anything else in determining near-term price action and helping to explain this rally

GREEN LINE ABOVE represents the PERCENTAGE of stocks trading above their 50-day MA.  Given that this rose quickly to the highest level we've seen in years, while prices on the indices themselves have NOT even gotten to new highs, this is a promising development and goes a long way towards explaining this move and recent market resilience