Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

S&P has Broken Trend from mid-February, which could lead to minor weakness into next week

The churning in US Equities and waning momentum over the last couple days have indeed turned LOWER, not higher, and S&P has followed suit to weakness in Crude and broken the uptrend from mid-February in the last 12 hours.  While momentum has turned oversold on hourly charts, while Pre-Easter holiday seasonality typically leads equities higher ahead of long holiday weekends, this early morning weakness if not immediately recouped, should lead lower next week with the possibility of S&P June futures getting down to 1956-60 area or below near 1927.   Given that the breadth overall remains quite strong and pessimism has not waned all that substantially, it seems unlikely from a technical perspective that S&P gives back more than 50% of the rally from mid-February before turning back higher.  However, at present, the trend looks to have turned down, and closes at current levels by end of Thursday would give some conviction on this front and lead lower into next week.   The Russell 2000 had given some minor clues in the last few days of underperformance, while momentum overall on this rally began to wane, as would be expected on a stalling out after a big rally.  However, instead of leading to one final move up, indices look to be all turning lower, not only in the US, but also Europe and Asia    Treasury yields have turned back lower and the Dollar, for now, remains on a 5-day winning streak, which very well could give way to a stalling out and downturn given the ongoing bearish trend for USD.  This in turn could help Precious metals begin another surge and help the Materials sector which has largely underperformed all week.  For now, WTI Crude lies near key uptrend line support and has turned down given the combination of bearish inventory data and the beginning of negative momentum divergence.   One could look to play any further break in Crude by betting against Russia via the RSX, or being Long the US Dollar vs Ruble,  or betting against Emerging markets.  Some key Technical shorts to consider for the months ahead are found in this latest week's Weekly Technical perspective, found at http://newtonadvisor.comwhich are for subscribers only.  For now, minor bounces on Thursday in the S&P should be used to lighten up for the potential for weakness down to 1956-60 area or even 1927-8 in S&P June Futures.

Crude gave some indication of waning momentum and now has turned back lower down to key trendline support

Crude gave some indication of waning momentum and now has turned back lower down to key trendline support