Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

S&P Stalled out ahead of FOMC, but Trend Intact & Bullish Bias still Correct

S&P has stalled out a bit in the last few days, (as part of its ongoing uptrend) as highs in Futures (2022) were made last Friday at around the time of Europe's close.  Yet no material technical damage and yesterday's lows near 1995 will be important to hold on pullbacks post decision.   Key support for the next few days lies at 1995-6 and then 1968-70 with the 10-day MA right near 1999, or current levels, which has held during this entire uptrend from mid-February.  The area at 2011-2015 is resistance, then 2022.  In the event that trends from mid-February are broken, with S&P undercutting its 10-day moving average, this would likely indicate at least temporary trend change.

 

Overall, markets remain in "Wait and See" mode, after stalling out prior to today's FOMC decision with two of the lightest volume days of the year.  Minor drawdowns haven't affected the structure of this rally from February 11, and until that happens, its still a "MUST" to stick with the trend until there is evidence of technical damage.  Small-caps have slowly deteriorated at a quicker pace than the broader market in recent days, but this also hasn't affected the structure of S&P, NASDAQ, which remain in uptrends from mid-February.  Crude oil's breakdown along with the minor stabilization in the US Dollar have hurt both Materials and Energy in recent days, as some mean reversion has occurred to offset last month's strength.  However, the strength in Technology in recent days is thought to be a real positive, and if Financials can build on recent strength and join in, that should bode well for markets to power through on recent strength, which is what's expected on a 1-2 month basis given the breadth improvement.  For now, it's proper to follow the trend, using breaks on a closing basis to put on hedges, but otherwise, sticking with this uptrend and thinking that additional strength is likely.