Please enable javascript in your browser to view this site!

S&P closing in on All-time daily high close

Just after mid-day, most of Europe managed to close with fractional gains, & US holding earlier gains of near 0.75% which puts S&P futures within 5 points of all-time high close from 3/1  and DJIA within 70 points of its own all-time high close-   Breadth is about 2.5/1 and seeing Materials outperform all other 10 sectors right now, with Financials in a close 2nd..  Only down sectors are Utes, Telecom and Real estate  as might be expected with rates surging now for 2nd straight day-   Trend getting a bit stretched on 3-4 hour charts to overbought levels not seen since mid-March, but no evidence of any counter-trend reversal signals and prices are likely to test all-time high levels in both S&P and DJIA before any reversal at this point- Overall, no reason to take profits ahead of today's close. and long bias still right even on 1-2 day basis as prices continue to press up, with Financials outperforming and Tech doing well with NDX back at new highs.    CAT, WAT, NFLX, FCX, MCD, MAS, WHR all higher by 4% or more today-  while on downside-  R, ESRX, TROW, CAG, ZIONS, LH, PHM, NEM all down 3% or more-  Let me know if you have any questions

Breakout in S&P, DJIA should lead to followthrough given Financials outperformance

Modest gains in Equity futures as US and Europe push further to the upside, with sharper gains today made by Asia.. Still seeing yields rise across the board.. while US Dollar index remains weak and gold weak as well-   Key developments focus on the breakout in US and Global stock indices.. and while Large, Mid and small caps are not yet back at new highs, we have seen meaningful breakouts yesterday which should be important in helping indices claw back to new high territory-  Volatility was hit hard yesterday with the VIX suffering its 4th greatest decline of all time in one-day's trading, well over 20% lower..  Breadth meanwhile didn't expand as much as hoped, but finished just fractionally above 2/1 positive with Financials leading, and could do well today also with yields still pushing up-  Premkt gainers today & earnings from AA, AKS, CAT, UIS, helping these to extend sharply.. while LMT lower by 3% and PHM, ESRX also down-   Key levels for today 2376 initially than 2382 which looks likely to be hit before any stalling out.  while 2365 important on the downside and then 2358-9 area-  Let me know if i can answer any questions

Global equity breakout following French election

Global equity breakout after last nights Election surge continuing this am.   S&P officially breaking out of consolidation trend from early March while most of Europe higher by 4-5%. France CAC up the most since june 2012-   Yields up to 2.30%, while Dollar down to test March lows.. and Gold lower by 1.4%- S&P had initial resistance last night at 2373.. and now faces 2379 which is important for today-  So today overall should be meaningful, led by FInancials and pullbacks should be used to buy for a move up back to new highs into mid-May-  HIGHER:  BCR, XBIT, GOGL, FTI, HAHS, SRPT, FCAU, AKS, ALV, X, FRO.. and many Financials up by 2% or greater this am-  C, BAC, MS, GS, KEY, GS, JPM.. On Downside-  XOMA, and ISLE-  Let me know if you have any questions

Range-bound consolidation continues into Election

The pullback in US Stocks seems to have been largely Crude related and after getting down to near key near-term support, 2338..managed to rally about 7 handles in the last 45 mins.  It’s still right to await the resolution of this trading range before getting too aggressive and little to no end thus far of this consolidation which has been intact since mid-February.   Most of Europe ended with small positive gains..  (.07% + in SX5E) while France’s CAC down 0.31%.  but arguably European stocks very well might not be pricing in the chance of a LePen victory and the Macron/LePen margin stands at only around ½%  so very tight race indeed which in the US< caused some uncertainty based selling ahead of trump’s win.    -  UK retail sales showing biggest quarterly fall since 2010 while Eurozone PMI  hit the highest level in 6 years in April’s data.. so some mixed economic data.  But just fractional change in indices globally ahead of European election results, NASDAQ a minor positive today and NKY up 1%.  Breadth is about 3/2 negative..  Utilities leading all sectors, despite today's weakness early on,  higher by nearly 0.70%% while Technology also in the GREEN with gainers such as MSFT (+1.5%), SYMC, HRS, INTC.  Industrials also strengthening with good results and rallies from ROK, SWK, HON.  Meanwhile, Energy leading all sectors to the downside today while Financials and healthcare down around .50%.  S&P gainers today-  ROK, SWK, HON, TSO, NEE, MSFT, VLO, CSX, while on downside-  MAT, URI, FCX, NOV, AN, MCK, CBT, SLB, BHI, KORS-   Let me know if I an answer any questions.  Have a nice weekend. 

Sideways range still very much in place

Very lackluster tape continues. as earnings roll in..  mild gains in Europe and most of Asia managed to recover early losses-   Dollar down with Treasuries while WTI attempting rebound.   No Net change in S&P now since mid-February.  A couple things of interest-  Equity Put/call managed to climb over .90 on recent pullback attempt to 2322.. highest since last October.. and Tom McClellan out today suggesting that 10-day ma of ARMS index is at levels which historically has coincided with rallies-  For now.  mild downtrend continues and until 2349 exceeded on a close and even 2357 on a closing basis, the larger trend from early March will be slightly negative and can't rule out pullback again to challenge 2322.. but is thought that consolidation SHOULD eventually lead higher.. and pullbacks should prove brief and could be over by next week-   Let me know if you have questions

Financials bounce helps S&P rise back to key upside level

GM-  Will be on CNBC today 330-340-- live from NYSE-    For this am- S&P right back up to important resistance which held yesterday and now being challenged again. as Banks rallying on MS, BLK results.. most of Europe recouping yesterday's loss after a severe pullback in Banks and Autos yesterday to lowest levels of the year-  Yields bouncing and USD which is exactly the opposite of what we've seen of late-   a few key themes.   Financials attempting to stabilize.. but yields still look to move a bit lower..  so don't make much of today as being all that important. and still expect TNX could reach 2.10 down to 2% before any meaningful support-    Cons Staples a sector to favor as prices move up to within a point of all-time highs and defensive sectors have begun to outperform.  and finally.  Healthcare's one-day pullback was a negative technical development.  Unless regained literally right away, this sector likely should experience some underperformance over next couple weeks, providing better buying opptys.   For S&P-  2346-7 impt..  then 2354.  on downside- 2330-  Would keep shorts on tight leash and above 2347 would suggest prices likely can trend up

Yields plummeting but not too much technical damage with equities

Not a whole lot of conviction in equities here.  Both rallies and pullbacks have largely failed this am in the first hour-   Most of the volatility occurring in non-equity land.. with US Treasuries moving up at a quicker pace than Europe-However, both Staples and Healthcare making meaningful breakouts.. Staples to upside, healthcare to downside-   Consumer Staples set to potentially make a new all-time weekly closing high -stocks like TSN, CAG, TAP, GIS, WFM, ADM, CPB all showing 1% + gains today-  while Healthcare dropping as CAH buying medical supplies unit not serving to generate much confidence, and down 11%. while ABC, MCK, also lower by 3%+-  this move for XLV important as its closing under a 3 week period of consolidation and might cause further near-term technical selling-  Breadth about 3/2 negative..Only Utilities and Staples higher, while Healthcare the only sector down more than 1%- bond rally continuing in US. and spread tightening vs Bunds.     TNX now down to 2.20%.   Dollar dropping sharply in a way that should cause this ALSO to continue near-term given a close here-  So what are the key trades and where to position?   Long Prec metals- Gold.. and TLT..Long XLP, short EUO, UUP-   Dollar breakdown looks to extend into end of week.. while yields also look to have downside.  For now, financials weak, but XLF holding support.   Let me know if you have questions

European indices dropping to multi-day lows putting pressure on Global stocks

gm.  some fractional losses in US while much greater technical damage in Europe with most indices falling to multi-day lows.  Bonds rallying further in US and Pound sterling advancing to new 2 mth highs vs USD on May's call for early elections to consolidate power and make BREXIT potentially easier to push through-  Financials might struggle with yields pulling back and GS, MS down early, though BAC is rising premkt after its earnings.. and entire Financial space will be watched carefully in this regard with the group trying to stabilize near key support.  The action in Europe suggests this should weaken a bit further in the near-term.. and Bloomberg World index also giving back nearly all of yesterday's gains.  S&P meanwhile being down only 0.25% is not substantial. but the downtrend in US stocks for now is intact since last week and from early march.  2317-22 will be the key level to hone in on for support while 2346-7 iimportant as resistance, then 2353-4-  Pivot point for today at 2338 has not yet been violated.. so just fractional weakness to start off.. but both WTI and Gold are lower despite Dollar being down-  overall as mentioned, the trend remains near-term bearish for now. and has not gotten up above key levels to think this minor pullback has run its course, so selectivity is important.  Premkt gainers in CAB, PLX, GNC, MITK, GBT, SSYS, UNH, while on downside- CAH, ARNA, DRYS, HOG, WWE, GS, MS, FCAU-  Let me know if you have any questions

Stocks rally to near resistance w/ Financials making a stand

Stocks remain higher by just under 0.45% with Financials, Tech, Real estate all contributing 0.60% or more today.. while Energy remains the only "down" sector.  Breadth is higher by about a 2/1 margin.. Bonds are still higher but way off earlier highs and TNX now at 2.232%.  Trend still very much DOWN for yields.. but encouraging to see Financials attempt to make a stand at a very important area of trendline support for this group-  Overall today's bounce doesnt change the structure too materially.. but is a minor positive to have recouped 2332 which was broken last week-  Above 2347 would serve to break out above the minor downtrend from early April-  Today's gainers are ARNC, NVDA, AMD, NFLX, MTB, TDC, ESS, A, all higher by 2% or more.. while INCY, DISH, CHK, LLY, HCA, KSS< CF all DOWN more than 2% for today-   No real conviction in index bounce just yet, and downtrend from 4/5 and 3/1 still intact for S&P along with downtrend for yields, despite today's sharp rally off lows-   Selectivity remains key. . Final thoughts-  S&P is 11% higher than this time last year in April, but just 43% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day ma, about half of the number that was present at this time last year-  so far fewer stocks carrying the load .  this percentage has steadily dropped off over the last year and has nearly dropped in half since early March.. so market is not nearly as strong as benchmark move might suggest

Yields, Dollar dropping while Gold strong; Short-term Equity trend arguably still down

Futures still largely unchanged but have moved into positive territory in the last 20 mins, while Treasuries continue to press higher, yields dropping 3 bps.. the US Dollar dropping and Gold higher.  Western Europe along with Hong Kong, Australia still closed today-  Most of todays early action dovetails to what was seen in the last week..  and could still put further pressure on Financials.. which have pulled back to near make-or-break levels-  Trend turned negative late last week and will need to recoup this loss to expect prices can begin any sort of meaningful rally.  For now, the combination of geopolitical tension coupled with Policy uncertainty and a very selective Tape has caused some minor concern.. but trend thus far has not weakened too substantially-  Overall, trend will be negative until 2332 can be reclaimed.. with 2345 near last Friday's highs also important.  On the downside.. very important support lies near late March lows 2317-9.. and is something to watch carefully on any weakness-  Over the next few days.  Favor UTILITIES with yields weak and look to buy into Energy.. while still avoiding financials until yields can stabilize a bit. Let me know if you have questions  

Bond yields and stocks hold support to keep reflation trade intact

Impressive move higher today in both Equities and also TY YIELDS, the latter gaining a full 10 bps from 2.28 to 2.38 by the close.  Gold erased most of its early gains after yields turned up aggressively and FAILED to breakout above 1260 as a result of this Yield ramp.  The USD index has gotten up to near important initial resistance /EURUSD near support, which suggests possible slowing/Minor Reversal next wk-Breadth came in around Even, slightly more decliners than Advancing issues, while nearly Double the volume on the Downside-Utilities backed off hard into today's close as yields moved higher also, while Financials trimmed earlier losses and Energy fell--Overall a VERY impressive snapback for Equities again, making it 4 of 5 days this week where S&P rallies 12-16 handles off early lows-  Heading into next week, still difficult to make much of this as being any sort of ongoing pullback for stocks, more like a corrective consolidation phase which needs to move higher, given the overlapping waves (S&P moving above recent 2351 last week helped to improve the structure)   2336-40 will still define the downside as key support while S&P will need to eclipse 2375 to have confidence of an upside breakout- Overall, we finish this week with a bullish bias, based more on the fact that indices had several chances to selloff and failed on each occasion.  Financials seem to have held where they needed to on initial weakness and still haven't broken down sufficiently and likely WON"T if yields hold up above 2.30% while the yield curve 2s/10s is also at support and should bounce -  Materials should be put into focus with the Dollar showing signs of being at resistance while XLB has made new multi-week closing highs and on the verge of a larger breakout-   Overall, USDJPY, TNX will definitely still be in focus next week, while the S&P pattern can't be taken lightly but has improved a bit given the consolidation

Brief stock weakness and yields undercutting 2.30

Mild weakness back to negative territory after much weaker NFP- 98 v 180 exp-  Services getting hit hard-  Bonds rallying hard on this weak data w/ TNX back down UNDER 2.30% which will be important and negative on a closing basis.. as this should hurt Financials.. and 2s/10s curve now flattening out to just 106 bps.. Still seeing mild strength in DXY and Gold breaking out this am above 12600. still holding earlier gains-  At present, FAILURE in bond yields getting back above 2.30 should cause a meaningful headwind for equities and has to be noted-   Support still lies near 2336-40, which has held all week

Overnight pullback holds where it needed to in yields, stocks, then ralliies back

Futures now have come all the way back to unchanged after last nights selloff attempt held near 2340 yet again-  For those keeping track this is the 4th day in 5 this week that S&P has rallied well up off early lows to the tune of 16 points - Mon.  12 points Tues.  16 points Thur and now 16 points early today- (Wed being the reversal from highs)  but little overall net change and resilience in equities as a result  -  Bond yields also reversed from earlier lows with 2.30 being key here too.. & yields backing up to 2.33, but have since softened yet again-  Gold making a bullish breakout attempt above 1260, so unless yields start to reverse back higher.  any break of 2.30% in yields likely sends Gold even higher in the short run, but this is what to watch-  Crude has gotten a bit extended after last few days but important to note this am.. both crude and gold higher.. and Equities have largely reversed all overnight losses-   Resistance for today still lies at 2361 near yestserdays highs then 2373-5  while on downside-   2336-40 area which has held all week-  Premkt strength out of SBLK,SDRL, DSX, TWLO, CDE, SALT, SYNA, while on downside-  CBIO, CLNT, CJ, BLPH, NVFY, VEON, HTGM, CLF and PLUG-   Happy to answer any questions

Tough to make much of recent weakness as rally has helped to regain this move

will be onReuters around 230-5 today with Fred katayama-  Midway through afternoon, we are seeing S&P continue to make good headway higher, up a bit more than 0.50%, reversing much of yesterday's decline  While the reversal late in the day seemed important on Wednesday,... we've seen precious little followthrough, which is important. S&P held where it needed to this am.. right near 2340 and is tough to fade until prices get back down and breach these levels.   energy and Financials the two pockets of strength, up nearly 1%. while YIelds are backing up a bit.. which is serving to help this group-  Until/unless we see movement down under 2340,  any larger pullback is postponed, and the pattern is taking on a bit of a consolidation triangle from last month which could argue for one final pushing up-  For now, prices are near make-or-break, but have lifted and as of now, regaining much of yesterday's loss fails to be all that bearish.  Tomorrows close will have equally important for how the weekly charts shape up, but for now, a good sign to have snapped back, and remains an environment that's conducive to following this recent sector rotation, with Energy having slipped hard in Q1, down nearly 7.3%-  

Test of 2340 seems to hold again, as futures attempt to rally back

S&P gaining ground in the last few hours after testing key 2340 area and this area will be important for today and tomorrow-  2338-2340-   UNDER suggests we should start to see a larger pullback into next week and warrants a short-term bearish stance-  For now, equities held areas of make-or-break support and have attempted to rise-  Much will depend on TY YIELDS as equities have followed suit to what yields have done, both rising in tandem this am.   Overall, yesterday's reversal seemed important and casts a near-term cloud over equities until this can be immediately regained.  The structure has been lackluster since early March, mildly lower as part of a consolidation that has kept indices range-bound since mid-February.  We'll need some type of catalyst it seems to help stocks push up given Financials waning and Technology having reversed yesterday-   Important to watch action in Financials, Tech, with yields as to clues about the larger indices-   For today/tomorrow-  2338-40 impt  and on upside 2355, 2366-7 and then 2372-4 near yest highs-  Gainers for this am:   PLUG, SPINS, JAZZ, GOGL, NTNX, BBBY, while on downside-  SGYP, SYNC, CAFD, AMD, CLNS-  Let me know if I can answer questions

Equities reversing early gains quickly into end of day

Equities sliding quickly , reversing earlier gains with bond yields having completely given back the prior rally-  Biggest reversal we've seen in at least 12 months, and Breadth is now negative by 2/1.  Key will be holding MONDAY"S lows at 2340.. but late day selling is a concern and takes away from some of the bullishness of earlier-  Dolllar has gone back to Negative while Gold has now gained ground and back to Even from down.  Holding Monday's lows imperative for market.. but late day reversals tend to be important.. so pays to watch carefully here

Equities maintaining earlier gains post FOMC

equities maintaining earlier gains post FOMC.  Bonds selling off a bit with yields up to 2.376.  Gold down $10.. and Dollar turning even higher with notable rise in Dollar/Yen-   Sectors like Energy, Financials, industrials and materials all up .80% or more-  Breadth has compressed a bit from earlier levels.. only up a bit LESS than 2/1 positive-  Overall closing at current levels would be a definite positive for near-term and should allow for a push up to 2384 and higher into next week-   Key change in the past few hours has concerned rates and USD starting to tick up a bit quicker.. while precious metals fall-  LMK if you have questions

Impressive move higher right out of the gate w/ Breadth more than 3/1 +

Impressive move higher right out of the gate- (which began shortly after ADP) with breadth up more than 3/1 positive-  Today's gains are the best since March 1-   S&P's ability to exceed 2367 sets a course for 2380, near the area that's marked the consolidation since early March- and getting over this allows for a brief push back to new all-time highs-   Energy which I wrote about this am.. is outperforming all sectors, higher by 1.45%, and Financials, and industrials also higher by 1%.  all 11 sectors up-  overall a much needed BIG POSITIVE breadth move at a key juncture.. with Financials snapping back with yields.  and Energy starting to turn up-  All of this is bullish in the short run.   - Stay tuned

Crude continuing to press higher, which should help Energy stocks

good am.. Global equities largely mixed this am and not too much volatility out of either currencies or Treasuries, but important to note 2 things:  WTI Crude continuing to press higher, and Energy on the verge of a technical breakout HIGHER after selling off for the last few months and massive underperformance-  Second- Treasury yields look to be bottoming,  mostly in Europe as seeing selloffs in Bunds and TNX stabilizing after hitting levels that have been touched now 3 times.   this bodes well for Financials to snap back-   Overall, a positive stance looks right for Equities and as said in the early am Technical comment-   Impressive resilience in back to back efforts of stocks rallying well off early lows.. and combined with AAPL breakout for TECH (important near-term) along with Energy performing well.. and Financials.. this should help Stocks push higher into next week-  KEY levels for today will be 2361-2 area.. then 2367 on upside.. while on downside-   2348.. then 2340-  Early gainers in PLUG, INNL, VICL, PNRA, FCEL, BLDP, TXMD, FTI, NBR  (Note the energy strength)  and on downside-  UNIS, TWLO, OHRP-   Let me know if you have questions-  

Break of overnight lows a minor negative to Short-term trend

Last hours break below overnight lows is a Technical negative to the short term trend.. and means we likely can test yesterday's lows of 2340 , with important overhead resistance at 2352-5.   2 important levels on the downside-  Yesterday's lows- 2340 and then 2317-20.  Until yesterday's lows broken initially, its right to buy into this pullback a few ticks lower.. but under 2340 would turn trend bearish and argue for an immediate test of 2317-20..  so holding yesterday's lows will be important-   Dollar moving higher, but not vs YEN. and Yen strength is coinciding with Gold rallying as yields have also been falling, largely in Europe.. but 2.30% is very important for TEN-yr TREASURY YIELDS and if broken. would lead yield and Financials lower-overall the next couple days will be key to see if indices can overcome this minor weakness, or whether this turns into a larger selloff-  Pay attention to yesterday's lows-   early movers:   PRTK, GALE, RNN, CONN, TXMD, FCX, TEVA. and on downside-  KATE, URBN, NVDA, DRYS, BAC, ALV, COOL-   Let me know if you have questions