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Despite positive breadth, today's price action has caused some damage

A bit more than 2 hours remaining.   S&P remains lower, though off early lows.. while NASDAQ suffering the brunt of today's selling along with Emerging mkts as the US Dollar rally continues to gain traction-  Yields have begun to turn lower ever so slowly.. while the Defensive sectors are all outperforming today-  Staples, Utilities, Telecom and Real Estate- while ENERGY continues to be the top performing sector in the short run and stands to lead all other sectors in September performance-  Given Energy's rally. breadth is not nearly as negative as might have been expected. Both Advancers/Decliners positive while VOLUME also positive today in UP vs DOWN stocks-  However, some damaging technical price action today with NDX breaking the trend from July and S&P also getting below 2492 was important and negative and despite some snapback attempt.  Nothing really has been accomplished that's all that positive .    CRUDE OIL's gains continuing to show positive followthrough, while the Metals attempting to rebound after getting down to initial support-  Overall, no change in outlook based on today-  The trend showed signs of cracking LAST week, ahead of North Korea..  and if anything this just adds to the negatives in the short run-   The lack of negative breadth doesn't always lead one to think this is a false move.. but has to be watched carefully as FANG stocks continuing to weaken and AAPL not yet at levels to buy-  Let me know if you have any questions

 

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Crude Breaking out, while Treasury yields attempt the same

gm ...Core CPI coming in as expected, while headline beat by a fraction-   Jobless claims came in better/lower at 284 vs 300-  Overall markets have reached a level where yet again we could see Stallouts in price. Bonds have begun to selloff across the globe yet again w/ yields up at 2.20% which is important, while the Metals remain under pressure-  Important developments in the last 48 hours revolve around the move in Energy with Crude having broken out, and OIH, XOP also having made absolute breakouts, which should help Energy begin to mean revert-   Overall, the trend has been bullish, but continuing up into October might prove difficult, with near-term overbought conditions, along with counter-trend sell signals on S&P, DJIA and QQQ while weekly momentum remains negatively sloped and under pressure-   Key areas for Futures-  2486-7, then 2480 as support, while on the upside-  2497-9-  Premkt movers in HALO, ALV, THC, UNFI, while on downside-  HTZ, EPZM, OPK, ARRY, SMMT-  Let me know if you have any questions

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OIH and XOP make absolute breakouts to join relative from last week

Equities remain locked in range-bound consolidation with no progress in broader indices, while Interest rates continue to press higher, and TNX not too far away from pretty major resistance at 2.20%.   Energy is the overwhelming leader today with 2-3% gains out of OIH and XOP while Discretionary also makes headway with JWN, ORLY, UA, DRI, BBY strength, all up more than 3%.  Meanwhile the Metals continue to drift lower and have clearly fallen on hard times with both yields and USD turning up, in the short run.  Builders weak today along with Healthcare and Real estate, but otherwise, very little volatility and/or changes in most things to comment on.   It will be necessary for Equities to show some real upward thrust and breadth expansion soon, as the recent bounce did not do much for momentum and now things appear to be stalling out yet again.  Important to keep an eye on the exits heading into Expiration and late Sept/October.. for now, prices are holding up.. but Tech and Financials should hold the key

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Metals declining further as USD begins to stabilize

gm-  Mild gains out of Europe and US Futures slightly weaker ahead of this am's PPI data- Financials strong in Europe playing catchup to yesterday's US Data while Miners weak, and seeing Copper weakening around 1.5% today, falling further after the break of trendline support two days ago.   Big development yesterday was the Global bond selloff which helped US 10yr yields start to stretch higher while Financials followed suit and XLF breaking back up above downtrends from July - The real key will revolve around whether Technology can strengthen from here given its push up towards highs of its recent range, while AAPL starts to show some evidence of peaking out in the short run.   Support for today lies near 2488, then 2480-2, while on upside-  resistance is 2496-7, then 2500-2-  Bottom line... near-term positive trend intact.. but some evidence of counter-trend sells approaching for major indices by end of week, and upside for S&P lilkely contains gains much past 2505-  Premkt gains in SNAK, ALDX, JWN, CNC, FOLD, FINL, BCRX, while on the downside-   DCTH,WDC, MNKD, PTLA, TEVA, CGG, AGNC-  Let me know if you have any questions

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Financials now breaking out above 1-month Downtrend

Into mid-day..  Minor postive gains but followthrough to yesterday is disappointing ..  Breadth only about 3/2 and Tech and Healthcare are struggling to make progress.   The Big developments concern a minor Breakout in Financials which have gotten above Trendline resistance per XLF while Interest rates continuing to lift, both here and abroad-   USDJPY attempting its own minor breakout here above 2 month trend.. And Utilties bearing the brunt of the rate rise.. Down over 1%, while Real estate also lower by 0.95% bps   Healthcare and tech though negative and from a bullish perspective, would mean more to see these sectors show some real strength-   S&P above 2490 has no real resistnace until near 2500-5, but Next couple days will be importnat to see whether Technology's upward progress can continue.. And for now.. Seems largely to have stalled out in the last few days..  Energy still a bright spot as written about last week and many of the former laggards are starting to move higher, so this also should be watched carefully.. But overall.  Minor followthrough today and breadth and participation a bit less than desired-   Leading stocks in S&P today-  GPS, RRC, PRGO, LB, CHK, CMA, CTL, GT, while on downside-  MCD, ANTM, INCY, MCK, ESS, NUE.  Let me know if you have any questions

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Global bond selloff w/ yields lifting & yield curve steepening out

gm-  Further bond selloff across the globe has yields back up with TNX over 2.15 and a near-term positive which could have some effect at causing further near-term strength in Financials.   This would be a positive in how it helps to join Technology in whats thought to be a last ditch rally attempt higher, with SOX leading the charge in the short run. However, Momentum in equities overall has made lower and lower peaks and has NOT followed prices back to new highs, and now S&P is within 1-2 days of triggering counter-trend sells to join what the NASDAQ showed last week, while DJIA is about 3 days away in this regard-  Europe meanwhile showed evidence of SX5E breaking out yesterday and should have at least another few days higher in the short run as a result of this positive development-  Outside of equities..  USD continuing to make upward progress near-term particularly vs Yen while precious metals are weaker..  so we're in an environment where the Safe havens have begun to retreat.. but yet the move thus far in Equities back to highs has not proven particularly robust and something to watch carefully into the end of this week-   Premkt movers for today::  TA, TEVA, CTIC, EYES, AA, DWDP, RBS, ACH, ALDX, while on downside-  SAGE, HIIQ, MRNS, LMNR, BCRX, EVGN, PSTI..   let me know if you have questions

Europes SX5E breaking out while S&P to multi-day high close

Bottom line-  Today is a temporary positive with how the next 2-3 days should line up.  S&P has pushed even higher post Europes close.. Where SX5E has made its own breakout today above an area that's been there since May.  Semis have led all other S&P groups today and SOX with a near-term bullish formation that could lead a bit higher still before any rolling over.   Tech and Financials today showing the most strength , both up more than 1.5%.. While Materials and Energy also up 1-1.5%.. With all 11 sectors showing gains for today-   Breadth is about 4/1 positive which also is a good sign given how subdued everything had been of late.   And USDJPY, TNX are bouncing, while the Metals fall-  Gold lower by 1% today.. , down 15, while Crude has pushed back higher back above 48.  Overall when looking at Europe, at pattern of DJIA, and SOX.. And good breadth today.  All of these suggest that we likely can push up a bit more this week, and that today likely is not a 1 day affair- we'll see the extent to which momentum can lift.. But expecting a bit higher prices given the higher open and move higher throughout the session-

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Haven trades being reversed as Sept expiration week gets underway

As we kick off Sept expiration week, Futures are higher across the board today which began last night on signs of yields ticking higher and a bit of uncertainty being relieved.  Europe is higher by nearly 1%, while NKY and HSI in Europe also higher by 1%, and some definite signs of the Haven trades being reversed.. as both Yen and Gold are falling, while TNX has edged up a full 0.04 bps this am..  While this should be a temporary period where gains can happen in TNX or even USD, the downtrends in these are very well intact and S&P is still likely to find strong overhead resistance near 2485-90-  At present though, prices are up above the highs of the last four trading days on the open, which is a mild positive for US stocks- Resistance for today lies right at current levels initially 2471-2, and above not much until 2480-1.  On the downside-  2460 is our PIVOT for today.. and 2455 lies under-  Premkt gainers in TEVA, UVE, ARRY, NLNK, INCY and MRNS higher, while ACHN, SGYP, JBLU, GRUB, REGN, and AU-  let me know if you have any questions

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Insurance bouncing back given severe weakness in prior days

2 hours to go.. we've seen brief selling pressure last throughout the morning and early afternoon, with most European indices having closed mixed but most gains were given up by today's close-   Weve seen Energy comprise the majority of weakness today in the market, while Tech is also under pressure, which could be of concern, but as of yet, has not yet violated key levels-  Financials are bouncing back after the recent carnage earlier in the week, and Insurance is the bulk of these gains as this sector had been hit the hardest earlier in the week.  Of the 5 top performing names in the Financials space, all of these are insurance related.   Breadth is only slightly negative on the day, but nearly a 3/2 ratio of volume flowing into DOWN vs UP stocks.   OF the laggards,   Semiconductors, Energy, Food Stpl/Retail, Media and Tech hardware are the worst performing sectors, while Capital goods, Div Financials, Healthcare equipment, Insurance and Transports are all positive and best performing, with all of these higher by 0.50% or more.   Overall, we've seen the NASDAQ continuing to slide most of the day and underperforming most of the market pretty substantially, by 0.80% now with 2 more hours to go.   Have a good weekend..  and wishing safety to all those in the Southeast-

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Financials slide a concern- Copper starting to reverse lower

gm-  Most US index futures down 0.25% with Europe and Asia largely mixed..  Still seeing signs of Risk-off behavior with USDJPY sliding to lows of the year and Treasury yields slightly lower.. Gold, Silver higher.   S&P still very much mixed trading between 2445-2466-  UNDER 2445 would allow for acceleration, which likely shouldn't be bought right away given the seasonal tendencies and breadth deterioration of late-   Overall the mood right now has gotten downright glum with the ongoing hurricanes, lack of success in tax or healthcare reform and market that is very mixed of late and difficult to make money.. The recent downdraft in Financials is particularly important and will be key that Technology NOT join this weakness in the days ahead but the Insurance weakness likely won't end for another 3-5 days given the uncertainty regarding IRMA-   Discretionary meanwhile weakening steadily with Media deterioration , and Healthcare standing out as one of the better in terms of risk/reward, but more towards the Pharma end than Biotech in the next 60-90 days-   This am has Wholesale Inventories out at 10 am-   Premkt gainers in KURA, ZUMZ, NLNK, CLVS DRD, while on downside: TNTR, AOBC, EFX, MYL, FCX, JKS-  let me know if you have any questions.  Thoughts and prayers go out to those with relatives, friends or family in Southern Florida this weekend

 

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Pharma and Energy look to be attractive, while Insurers, Media weaken

Roughly 1 hour to go.. Equities have gradually firmed a bit after early pullback attempts failed , healthcare still the driving force on the long end, while Financials have been huge underperformers and both Financials and Telecom down roughly 2%-  Yields have plummeted in the last few days and TNX now down at 2.05%, with flattening yield curve testing important support-  S&P has NOT gotten up above the key 2467 area today, but still largely in No-Man's land, but the big pullback in the US Dollar and also pullback in Yields has been bullish for the Metals.. And Gold back up to near key resistance-   Worth noting that TNX close to getting buy signals on a counter-trend basis, while Gold shows the same signals, but as SELLS   so difficult to know how this will play out, but most of the countertrend signals are all lining up in unison to suggest a turn back HIGHER in USDJPY, higher in TNX and LOWER in Gold, which could be seen as a peaceful resolution in the short-run to North Korea-  TECH is higher by 0.50% while AAPL is down and many Tech indices and QQQ show counter-trend sells on the horizon which would be triggered in the next 2 days into early next week-  Overall.   Look to own Healthcare and Energy, while avoiding financials in the short run, particularly the Insurance stocks with Irma on the horizon and the Discretionary space with the media sector causing quite a bit of turbulence in the Discretionary space today-   Bottom line.   Still no firm guidance for direction, but much suggests a bounce attempt into early next week which should prove to be a selling opportunity

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EURO spiking on Draghi comments, while S&P still range-bound

gm-  Jobless claims jumping with Harvey impact-  298k vs 245k-   Not much affect on continuing claims- 1940k vs 1945k expected-  Unit Labor costs 0.2% vs 0.3% expected.   Equity futures showing minor gains while most of Europe also positive, but trend largely still very choppy in the last 48 hours and will need a move either ABOVE 2467 as a positive or move down under 2455 k which would give some guidance to direction-  ECB keeping rates unchanged causing EURUSD to rise to multi-day highs and DXY back down under 92.. so a bit more downside looks likely for USD.. and should continue to be a good market for the metals-   Premkt movers today POSITIVE-  RH, GPRO, CAB, FEYE, CETV, , VRNT, ALDR, VRNA,  and on downside-  ALNY, KEM, RACE, WPX, BLDR, NCS-  Let me know if you have any questions

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Energy continuing to strengthen- BRENT breaking out, WTI at key 50 level

gm-  WILL BE ON CNBC today at 3:30pm..  

S&P up to near-term Make-Or-Break 2464-6 and getting OVER 2466 would be a mild positive while over yesterday's intra-day highs 2471 would argue that the short-stance is premature and a push back to new highs would result, BEFORE the larger breakdown-  Most of Asia finished lower along with Europe being mixed..  Treasuries are showing some weakness this am with Yields up across the board, while DXY is largely unchanged.  KEY DEVELOPMENTS in the last 24-48 hours concern the rally in Energy with CRUDE pushing higher and now back to important trendline resistance at 50..   while Financials have backed down after failed breakout last week-  Both of these important to note-   For now,  Shorts would be stopped OVER 2466,, while necessary to get back UNDER yesterdays lows to really jumpstart the decline again down to lows-  2445 important in that regard-  Early gainers in VSTM, PTN, SRPT, BCRX, DLTH, FCAU, INFI, NAV, GNRC, HDS, while on downside- TRVG, FRAN, NWL, PLAY, UAL, GDDY- IRT-  Let me know if you have any questions

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S&P Breaks near-term support, causing acceleration as Financials reverse

into mid-day, S&P has pulled back to multi-day lows on breadth of about 3/1 negative.. Financials and Tech both down more than 1.5%, while Industrials, Materials and Telecom all losing more than 1%.  KEY LEVEL FOR S&P FUTURES lies at 2450-3, which as of now is being undercut. but these levels line up with late Aug - 22-24 and UNDER would be a negative into tomorrow-  S&P has now given back over 50% of entire rally from late August  and UNDER 2443 likely accelerates down to test and break lows of 2421 from 8/29-   NECESSARY for the bulls to regain 2460 to have any sort of confidence in near-term price action.. and for now.. its right to be defensive.. while knowing that current levels do have some importance as of end of day-    Most of Europe closed well off early highs and down at a loss but seeing Semis down 2% and also Transports reversing is certainly not a positive as well as Financials giving back all of last Fridays gains and down to lowest level since late June-  Treasury yields are down under 2.0750 which puts yields at new lows for the year-  Counter-trend BUYS for yields potentially 1-2 days away.. but for now, the trend has been fairly sharply negative for yields for the last 2 months now  and Financials have had a difficult time rallying given this yield compression-  The positives today involve ENERGY which is one of the only sectors positive today along with Utilities, and Crudes move making short-term breakout which is a plus for Energy while Gold also back to new highs and still looks to have a couple more days of gains before counter-trend sells kick in.  but trend in both Gold , Crude and copper moving up.. but COPPER in particular getting stretched-   Happy to entertain questions on any stock of interest-    

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Crude gains support thoughts of Energy outperforming

gm.. Tuesday showing mild losses, but largely still holding up very well in the face of increasingly more tension between US and N Korea-  MXAP the MSCI Asia Pacific index made its largest pullback since early August yesterday and most of Europe fairly mixed today.  Dollar dropping to new weekly lows vs Yen, and TNX down about .03 bps to 2.12-  Overall in Equities- Despite the near-term trend having improved in the last week in US, the risk/reward here seems poor given NDX up at the highs with counter-trend sell signals having appeared.  Key developments overnight concern WTI crude having made minor breakout this morning, and plays in to the theme of ENERGY starting to turn back higher, at least in the short-run and bounce.. Other developments such as the new hurricane will have to be monitored now that its become a CAT - 5 and headed towards US land potentially in the next 5-7 days-  Overall, selectivity is key, and ENERGY, HEALTHCARE and FINANCIALS look like the key sectors to favor in the short run.. but with a close eye on Equity indices in the event this decline starts to turn down with more acceleration-  For today 2468-9, near current levels, is today's first Pivot support.. then 2463-4, 2455. while on upside-  2474 PIVOT and resistance 2478-80-  Premkt movers in INSM, PTN, BCRX, XOMA, RST, FCEL, DRYS, FRO, RH, while on downside-  ALBO, KB, PUK, OSTK, TI, AMD, JUNO-  let me know if you have questions

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Tech could stall out, while Energy begins to turn higher

Equities extending gains after early pullback attempts failed.  Breadth about 2/1 positive,  constructive, though not great, with nearly 4 times the amount of volume into UP vs DOWN stocks.   This is producing a TRIN reading intra-day of .52, (ARMS INDEX)  which is LOW and often times coincides with peaks.  For now.  No evidence of this today, with Tech having rebounded back to positive and Financials making their OWN breakout move which had been lacking over the last few days.   Looking at XLF, this is a minor BREAKOUT of the downtrend which has been ongoing with this sector in the last two weeks, which is a positive and suggests at least some minor upside in this group into early next week.   Energy also positive and showing increasing signs in the last week of trying to stabilize.. which after the early week decline on the Hurricane is constructive.  (OVERALL as I’ve indicated in the last week.  ENERGY looks to be getting counter-trend BUY signals using Demark..  but this goes against some of the recent weakness and downtrend in WTI itself..  so we’ll have to watch this carefully)   the Dollar is largely unchanged vs the majors after early pullback attempts and then rallies both failed.   While Treasuries maintaining early weakness with yields higher across the board.  TECH is the big laggard today and as I wrote in my “NEWTON”S NOTES” this am..  this sector is now up to very important resistance and is getting its own counter-trend sells.  This could limit upside and COULD be an important and potentially negative signal into next week if Tech starts to turn down more meaningfully. For now.. just some minor stalling out is all we’ve seen today.   UTES and TELCOM both lagging today as might be expected after a big runup in the Utes and now Yields

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Near-term Bounce nearing resistance again for indices

Futures up across the board ahead of today's Jobs data in 10 min.   short-term trend remains bullish, but nearing resistance that should be important and could cause a stall out into next week-   2 things to mention-   Healthcares acceleration yesterday has now broken out above a 2-year downtrend in relative terms.. so this group could likely still outperform going forward and is now the 2nd largest group by capitalization in S&P-   Second -  QQQ triggering counter-trend sells today similar to waht happened in JUNE with AAPL due to get these same signals early next week-  This COULD be important in causing some slowdown and reversal in Technology and important to concentrate on as we enter the seasonally bearish month of September.   Outside of these sectors..  important that FINANCIALS make the same breakout as TECH did in the days ahead for the Bulls.. which has NOT happened thus far.. .  Outside of equities.  bonds selling off globally with yields higher across the globe.. not much volatility in either crude, nor gold with Dollar largely pretty stable this am vs most currencies-   PRemkt gainers in IOVA, PANW, NTNX, LULU, FCAU, DRYS, CLF higher.. while on downside- TECD, AMBA, FSNN, CGG-  let me know if you have any questions-  Have a nice weekend

US indices regain losses, but momentum still a huge concern

30 mins to go in the month of August-  S&P has gained enough to cut all of its monthly losses since Tuesday and now positive for the month- Nasdaq and DJIA are both positive for August.. and Tech is the overwhelming leader for the last month.. while Healthcare gaining ground after its own breakout early last week with Biotechs , and this has been followed just in the last couple days with Pharma and Med device strength..  Breadth is stronger on today's move than we saw yesterday at a bit less than 3/1 positive.. and Healthcare the overwhelming leader today with Biotech showing a bigger breakout to new highs for 2017 along w/ Energy and Materials strength-  Financials remain the weak link which is a minor concern-  Overall S&P has moved very quickly back towards the highs of its August range and should encounter resistance at 2476-80 just above current levels, and given teh NEGATIVE momentum on weekly charts..  this sharp rally could be used for profit-taking into September as indices approach highs-   Today's top gainers are TIF, BIIB, BWA, EXPE, CELG, while on downside- CPB, DG, CHRD, WDC-  Let me know if i can answer any questions

A positive for Market into end of month, but what next? if Financials don't participate

gm-  Gains in Europe to the tune of 0.80% followed by bounce also in US futures on the last trading day of August where DJIA and NASDAQ are now positive for the month and S&P just down a fractional 0.50%..  Key breakout in 3 week pattern for S&P coinciding with Technology breakout and XLF right up to key resistance which shouldn't take much to also get this over 24.80 and participating-  OVerall, while intermediate term issues remain technically, the short term outlook is a bit more positive given the reversal Tuesday and momentum has turned back to positive shortterm based on MACD while weekly still negatively sloped-  Key for near-term resistance at 2476-80, and then 2490..  so right to hold long and expect further followthrough into upper end of resistance initially- Let me know if i can answer any questions.  

 

THURSDAY AM TECHNICAL VIDEO

https://stme.in/9xJEfAYMw

S&P snaps back above former support lows- a minor positive.

Snapback for S&P with prices having regained 2434, which is a minor positive, despite the deterioration in Financials, and breadth remains still down by 2/1 ratio.. with volume also flowing into DOWN vs UP stocks at a similar rate-  Nonetheless. being back up above 2434 is a minor positive into mid-day-   Energy and Materials still lagging all sectors, but Financials also down 0.70 bps.. and tough to be too bullish on snapback in US Markets with Financials so weak-   US Dollar up off early lows.. very stretched here, but BUY SIGNALS on daily charts still 2-3 days away-  TNX also down to prior June lows while Gold has stretched up to the highest levels this year-   overall, the key development concerns S&P snapping back over prior support that was broken.. but simply puts markets back into consolidation.. and No Man's land.. so still not all that bullish just yet until 2460 can be exceeded