Indices showing moderate gains this am.. US recouping losses from yesterday, Europe pressing higher while Emerging markets continuing to make huge headway to the upside while HSCEI presses up to new multi-month highs- Much of this emerging mkt strength is due to US Dollar decline of late but DXY along with TNX are now at levels where reversals of trend are near and expect that further Dollar weakness should prove unlikely, Technically and stabilization/upturn should lead to Emerging mkts stalling out- S&P has not completely erased all of its negatives this am, and a move back OVER 2376.75 necessary to expect higher prices, while over 2380 would allow rally back to 2400- For this am.. we'll need to see a bit more before thinking this few-day decline has run its course, and Financials in particular still look weak in the short-run after recent breakdown- For now, pays to be patient and let price be the guide as to whether this minor pullback has run its course. Early gainers in PTIE, HTBX, FCX, GNMX and on downside- GEL, GIS- Let me know if you have any questions
Minor gains in US while most of Europe up 1% and China rising 2% today w/ HSCEI moving higher to test Feb highs- Key developments overnight were the BOJ and Swiss Nat bank leaving rates unchanged, while China lifted its borrowing rate , following the US yesterday-Sector-wise, Metals stocks have done very well in turning higher in the past 24-48 hours given US Dollar weakness and that strength is continuing today with Iron ore, Zinc, copper, and precious metals spiking- Gold up 26 this am, or over 2% while WTI crude has pushed back over 49 as this rally also begins to gain speed- Yields backing up a bit today after yesterday's Bond rally taking yields down 3-4 bps across the board- Overall in Stocks. minor overbought conditions from yesterday's rally and early strength up to 2388 pulling back fractionally but should be good to buy for a push up to 2400 and over into next week- Trends improved dramatically the other day in SPX and also DJIA, NDX and tough to consider selling just yet with yesterday's 6/1 breadth rally which should move back to new high territory for both SPX and DJIA- Percentage of stocks trading over 10day ma has doubled in the last week from 30% to nearly 70% as of yesterday's close- Overall its right to stay long the Metals, mining stocks, energy , while being a bit more selective in Industrials, Financials but trend has become more positive and likely to take US indices all back to new high territory-
Less than Hour ahead of FOMC decision, S&P futures have pushed up to within striking distance of highs with NDX at new all-time highs.. bonds have rallied ahead of decision, while 2yr which is correlated well with Fed fund futures, shows yields up at 1.39%. Dollar weakening while Crude remains near earlier highs and set to rally in the weeks ahead- Both Russell 2k and TRAN both outperforming today which is a good sign given recent weakness and breadth has come in at a very strong 3.5/1. Yield curves flattening out substantially even ahead of today's move to the tune of 2-3% across the curve. Energy leading all sectors today, opposite from yesterday.. while Healthcare and Utilities showing sharp gains and industrials managing to rally back 0.60%- All 11 sectors positive for today, and S&P has pushed up to within 3 ticks of key breakout area at 2376. Holding today's gains tough at new 3-day highs should help to test and exceed that level and allow for a quick push up to 2400- Downside area of importance remains at 2351- Let me know if I can answer any questions
Minor gains in S&P as prices have snapped back from yestrday's test of key support. Seeing mild gains also in Europe, while Asia finished largely mixed. Trend has been largely neutral now for 2 weeks, but odds still favor strength UNTIL/UNLESS 2351 can be violated. Degree of breadth slowdown and momentum though is a concern, and we'll need a sharp move back up above 2376 which would jump start rally back to 2400 and above- Key developments overnight include Crude and metals bouncing this am.. as US stockpiles dropping and has resulted in WTI moving back OVER last 2 days highs. IF this holds, it would produce further gains in the days ahead, so this is meaningful this am, and positive- yields largely unchanged and only fractional gains in USD, but both will be eyed closely for some evidence of trend change and/or continuation of recent moves. Yield curve on 2s/10s has dropped back into recent range, so a move back over 124 bps necessary to help this breakout extend- For now, bullish stance favored, with stops 2351 and upside resistance 2376- premkt gainers: ARNA, PIP, CVRS, GOGL, MSCI, OCLR, FNSR.while on downside: SNAP, ESRX, PLX, NPTN, NMM, RUBI, FTD, TTOO- Let me know if I can answer questions.
Still an hour ahead of Europe's close given US Daylight savings time. w/ S&P lifting nearly 7 ticks off early lows, but still a quite bearish move today after this undercut Yesterday's lows at 2364.75.. Breadth has improved a bit to -3/1 negative, vs earlier -4/1. and Percentage of volume into DOWN stocks vs UP at around 75%, which earlier was more than 80%. Still seeing breakdowns today in DJ Transports which is a real negative.. while Small caps have rallied back around -0.65%, and previously was down more than -1%. Crude Oil meanwhile has gained about 1% off earlier lows w/ Saudi Arabia coming in to explain their "LIE" of their lack of sticking to production cuts, and saying they were for purely domestic storage.. yet shipments to China from SA accelerated.. so at a time from mid-December when storage was expected to decline.. it has in fact increased... As of 1130.. energy still the biggest laggard sector-wise.. down 1.2% while INdustrials, materials and Tech all down 0.50--.75%.. Only discretionary, Utilities and real estate positive- Key takeaway. stocks have held where they needed to thus far.. and have attempted to bounce into mid-day. but closing here still a negative heading into tomorrow unless S&P regains 2364.75
First hour seeing prices continue the early decline. S&P has minor support at 2355-6 and under will test the all important 2351. FAILURE TO RALLY FROM HERE means a likely retest of this level, which as said before.. important to hold.. and under turns trend negative, suggesting selloff into 3/24- Yields and Stocks back in sync.. Pulling back. while Dollar follows through- Breadth 4/1 DOWN while over 80% of all volume now in declining vs advancing issues, and ALL 11 sectors down- BOTTOM LINE. markets getting very close to support and will need to hold and rally in the next few days to avoid a necessary correction to one of the more overbought conditions in years. Keep an eye on 2355-6 and then 2351 in June futures
Minor pullback in Futures as UK's Pound breaks down vs USD to the lowest levels since January on BREXIT worries, w/ Theresa May having won approval to talk to EU about BREXIT- Key for futures in the days ahead will be 2351 level for S&P and CANNOT break this without thinking a selloff is getting underway- Trend for now positive, but breadth and momentum have tailed off moderately in the last few weeks and US equities are in need of pushing higher ASAP and the longer prices hold here, the greater the likelihood of late March selling, based on gravity alone. S&P had gotten up to some of the more overbought levels in years, and now has stalled.. so we'll need a constructive press conference post tomorrows Rate Hike which is now seen as foregone conclusion- Yields showing some signs of backing off a bit, while Dollar largely firm, as mentioned, mostly vs Pound Sterling- Crude showing further losses early on, while Gold is up fractionally- Overall, buying dips at first support 2361-2 looks right, with addtl levels at 2355 and then the important 2351- On the upside- 2369 is today's PIVOT and 2374 first resistance- Today's movers- ETRM, DRYS, PLX, OPK, WAC, RT.. while on downside- ANTH, AUPH, VRX, LNTH, CERU, DOC, PPHM, AMPH, PETX- Let me know if you have any questions
Just past Mid-day, . Equities having a tough time doing much- we are seeing a decent bounce out of Small caps today, but Transports which have been weak over the last few weeks, are down another 0.50%. 10yr yields pushing back higher over the last few hours and TNX should likely get to 2.64 into Wed.. but not much volatility at all today in Crude, gold, or the US Dollar.. 4 sectors higher today- Financials, tech, Telecom and discretionary but No sector is higher or lower by more than 0.40% in either direction with Healthcare lagging all others with a -.38% pullback today. Yield curve steepening out again in 2's/10s while the long end remains subdued.. and Bond market doesn't seem to believe in the Growth/reflation trade, as 30 yr yields have lagged badly of late- Overall, Increasing signs of both WTI Crude and Gold getting ready to bounce.. and Financials likely should be favored also with yield curve steepening out. For now, Market seems dead ahead of Wed..
US Equity index futures largely mixed this am while most of Europe showing mild gains, and Asia finished on a very positive note, with China higher by 1%. Treasuries are mildly higher as US TY ylds sitting at 2.569- Gold and metals making moderate rebound this am- This week centers around Wednesday's FOMC announcement, but given the Percentage chances are at 100% for a hike.. only a surprise would jolt markets and otherwise, it just seems like a formality. PPI and CPI this week as well tomorrow and Wed- Overall trend has shown some signs of trying to turn back higher late last week an unless 2351 breached its more likely that S&P can try to push higher to test 2401- On the upside- 2374-5 impt, and as mentioned.. 2351 on downside- but outside of Asia this, little overall volatility this am to start the new week
90 mins to go.. S&P is starting to bounce a bit after hitting lows of the day after backtracking earlier gains. The Dollar began to pullback shortly after the Jobs report.. while Yields also backtracked in the US after hitting resistance-S&P is back down to 2365 area.. While this move thus far is not 100% negative in thinking prices have to go back down and today was a false reversal. they're certainly not as encouraging as finishing on the highs. But holding up above yesterday's close would still be a minor positive heading into next week. Financials in particular dropped to the lows of the day and currently have important support at 24.65 that can't be broken without expecting that this sector is beginning to break down. Breadth is still around a 3/2 positive while volume flowing into Advancing stocks vs declining at a nearly 2/1 pace. Important to see from a Bullish perspective that NDX will still close at new HIGHS for the week and above last week's 5373 close- So the weakness has been largely in Financials and also in Energy as Crude has backed off. But Tech, Industrials, Utilities up 0.50%.. and overall more of a choppy market right now than all that negative.. with many split sectors and lots of rotation. Gold looks to be close to bottoming and long positions can be considered into early next week in this and also in Metals and Mining index- XME that looks to be very near areas to buy- For now, the next hour into the close will have importance.. but rallies would be more encouraging than not if prices can lift from here into the bell
Moderate gains in S&P ahead of Jobs # this am, S&P has climbed to multi-day highs ahead of NFP which is expecting 200k after very strong ADP earlier in the week- Most of Europe higher by 0.50% and continues to be stronger technically than US in the near-term. Bond yields pressing higher again, w/ TNX very close to former highs of 2.64%.. which is near-term resistance.. but the combo of yields and Dollar moving higher continue to be bad for Metals and EM. Bullish stance here in Equities looking to buy all dips at 2354-5, and initial pivot near 2360.. while remaining OVER this 2370 a very good sign technically into next week and should help prices extend into 2400-1 into FOMC- This am's push higher has helped prices EXCEED the downtrend from early March which is also constructive. EArly gainers in INTT, FMSA, INAP, POP, CRIS, and on downside- ZUMZ, FNSR, ARE, ULTA, OCLR, LUV- Let me know if you have any questions-
Fractional losses in S&P futs this am.. and little overall change from levels that were hit last Wed am when prices surged.. so the last 4 of 5 "down" days have all occurred in the context of 1 days trading from last Wed. and LITTLE overall real damage- NASDAQ is roughly unchanged from 2 days ago and also from levels from last week, and holding up in much stronger fashion, with stocks like AAPL showing real resiliency- Key developments in the last 24 hours largely revolve around Crude oil dropping down under initial support and extending losses- For now, it looks early to buy dips but also late in the game to sell into and support lies directly below- Treasury yields broke out on Tuesday and still right to think the bond decline continues with TNX getting up to 2.64 in the short run- For today. 2355-6 important on the downside. and under 2349. while 2370 impt as resistance- Gainers for today: ELF, TIME, VVUS, APRO, SHLD, and on downside- FCX, PLNT, VNET, HZN, TLRD, SSYS- Let me know if you have questions
Just past 130, S&P has begun its afternoon ascent to recover a bit of earlier losses. Prices never quite got down under support levels which have held prices intact as a solid Floor for S&P futures over the last few days, and while various concerns remain such as Larger numbers of stocks hitting new lows than highs as of yesterday and breadth deterioration concerns, prices still haven't given us much reason to sell, with regards to the indices themselves. The key developments for today concern TREASURY YIELDS breaking out of resistance levels when looking at both 10 and 30 year yields (LONG TBT) while the 2yr yield has pushed up as well and the yield curve has largely flattened. Additionally, Healthcare has hit new multi-day lows when examining XLV and healthcare looks apt to rollover a bit after its big run of late, with stocks like MNK, AGN, PRGO, MYL and GILD all showing above average weakness that doesn't look immediately buyable. Meanwhile, Gold remains weak and near lows, having shed 0.75% today, or down $9 to 1216 and stocks like AAPL, EA, ATVI, NVDA showing good strength and helping Technology register a positive day, which represents 1 of just 3 sectors higher, along with Staples and Utilities for today- Both of these latter groups however, likely will face tougher times as yields rise and Financials rebound.. which along with Tech "should" be able to carry stocks back up to test and exceed 2400 for a final time into FOMC. For now, watching USDJPY and TNX carefully should provide clues as to SPX movement, but the range of the last few days is very narrow right now with 2365 as support and 2375 as resistance. VIX meanwhile is down -.53% to 11.18 despite minor SPX weakness, which is notable.
Healthcare weakening today, which despite a bit of intra-day rally, looks important and negative for the short run
Minor weakness globally in equities, but selling not too severe.. Bonds rallying in Europe a bit more than in US which has seen yields holding and attempting Breakouts in 5, 10, 30 yr yields which should prove to be good for Financials .. Metals weak across the board, as Copper has pulled back further, undercutting late Feb lows while Zinc, and Iron ore retreat- Overall, pattern for US equities remains shaky, but intact.. and despite more stocks hitting new 52-week LOWS than HIGHS on NYSE yesterday, and some breadth deterioration, we haven't seen sufficient weakness to turn bearish on S&P and believe that Financials strength along with Technology can still carry prices higher into FOMC- For today- 2365-7 important on downside as support while 2375 resistance, then 2381-3- Let me know if i can answer any questions
so into mid-day, a few interesting developments- Copper breaking down, along with Steel stocks and Airlines with a potential false breakout in the Transports.. Financials backing off again, despite yields rising.. which i think should prove short-lived, particularly if rates get over 2.52% on 10yr- Energy the only sector which is FLAT.. and the other 10 are all negative, with Financials leading on downside, then Materials, Industrials, Discretionary all down more than 0.50%. Gold slowly losing steam as Dollar has rebounded along with yields, while Small caps are also reversing course to pullback INTO the prior consolidation, with IWM set to move down UNDER 137.30.. so today is showing reversals in TRAN, Copper, Steel, but most METALS STOCKS via XME, getting down to near initial support- Breadth continues to be HEAVIER on the downside than upside, 4/1 negative today.. which is problematic.. but for now, structurally , trends remain intact- 2365 remains important on the downside, while 2377 on upside- Bottom line. tough to make too much of today.. but a few interesting reversals in some sectors that had moved to highs and now backing off and reversing
Markets showing mild weakness as overnight jitters from N Korea missile test along with DB weakness in Europe resulted in minor pullbacks globally for equities.. but in the case of S&P- still not violating any meaningful support but back down to levels that should be make-or-break and at least initially is right to buy into this pullback unless S&P FUT get under 2365..Area of importance on upside 2377, 2382-3, 2400-1, and 2365-8 on downside.. Yields weakening a bit this am, but could be likely to turn up and get back over 2.52% ahead of FOMC meeting on 3/14-5- This week brings about ECB meeting Thurs and Jobs data Friday- Early gainers in SNAP, XRX, NFLX, GNC, while on downside- GPRO, TSN, FCX, PERI, CLF- Let me know if you have questions
Yellen saying March rate hike "likely appropriate" if progress persists- and says there's no evidence the Fed has fallen BEHIND the curve, also saying the Economy has likely met the Fed goals- so not much reaction in equities.. but yields rose further, then backed off a bit, but TNX still near 2.497 and Yield curve has steepened a bit- Still seeing Financials and Heatlhcare leading, while technology fractionally positive and Energy flat- Sectors like Staples, Utilities, Real estate all down and lagging as rates move higher- overall, market seems VERY comfortable with the idea of a rate hike. as Yellen didn't mince words and market really didn't budge. Looking over last 30 years.. there have been 180 occasions where PERCENTAGE of RATE HIKE was OVER 50% and they DIDN"T HIKE> Fed funds futures currently showing 86%.. so a dramatic shift in the last 2 weeks , and barring an immediate collapse in equities.. a rate hike seems like foregone conclusion
Mild pullback for US equity futures in continuation of yesterday and for Asia, while Europe is mixed, but largely still positive after recent breakout.. Important day for Bond yields as Ten-year is exceeding resistance as of this am, while Bund yields have done the same thing.. so most of this should be a positive for Financials.. while Gold is in the process of breaking down, and along with Yield and USD strength, is likely to fall in the weeks/months ahead..For today/into Monday, prices are down near the area of Wed breakout and important area of support which should be good to buy dips and cover shorts in thinking prices turn back up along with yields and push higher into FOMC. so the area at 2373 and also 2365-8 important and for the bulls.. we can't really see this be broken without thinking a larger peak might be coming and then under 2349 would confirm that for futures. For now, premature- Look to favor Energy, Financials, healthcare(biotech) while avoiding Utes, Staples, REITS and anything interest rate sensitive- Early gainers in SNAP, MRVL, SEDG, BIG, while on downside-COST, HMSY, NTNX, SCYX- Let me know if you have questions
Will be on CNBC today 3:30-3:40.. Into mid-day, S&P has given back about 50% of the range from Tuesday's lows into yesterday's peak just above 2400. Ideal support for this pullback lies near 2380 and below near 2373-4 should be a good risk/reward spot to buy given the bullish breakout we saw yesterday. Anything more suggests a larger pullback could get underway. Given yesterday's developments, this seems to be on the back burner for now and near-term pullbacks should be a chance to cover shorts and look to buy into sectors like healthcare, Energy, and the stronger Financials which could outperform given a YIELD move above 2.52%. Important to note: Breadth is stronger on this pullback today. at nearly 3/1 than it was on yesterday's advance- Given the rising forces of Yields and USD.. Gold pulling back down under 1240 which should be a common theme.. For today.. Utes, Staples and healthcare the only POSITIVE sectors, while Financials are lower by more than 1%, and Tech, industrials and materials all down by 0.50% or more- Tough to get too bearish on this move in stocks outside of just a few down days to relieve overbought conditions unless prices move back down UNDER 2370-3 area where S&P broke out from yesterday- this will happen eventually.. but for now it looks premature with Yields looking primed to breakout and should help Financials OUTPERFORM.. So today's underperformance and lagging in this group is largely due to the extent they reached severe overbought levels yesterday- Let me know if you have any questions
gm- Global markets largely mixed this am, with minor pullbacks in S&P and Europe along with China, while Japan continues to press higher- Yields and US Dollar also moving up and this is a key theme to highlight heading into FOMC, as Breakout yesterday in 2 yr yields likely will also coincide with 5, 10 and 30 yr yields breaking out as well which in turn should serve as a catalyst for Financials to outperform in the next couple weeks- Crude and Gold lower this am and important to watch as gold nears 1230 as it faces a bigger breakdown which likely occurs as 10yr yields break back out higher- For now, Energy and Biotech are two areas which should have focus as Technical overweights from a risk/reward perspective vs reaching for industrials, financials, or Discretionary here, while looking to sell into the Defensives as Utilities, REITS, are not likely to thrive as yields move higher- Fed fund futures now show 80% chance of Hike in 2 weeks and market seems to be readying itself while sentiment growing more optimistic by the day- Key for S&P today 2389 near earlier lows, then 2385-6, and 2370-2, while on upside 2400-5- Premkt gainers for this am: AUPH, VRML, MSNT, AVGO, BURL, BLDP while on downside- DRYS, SSI, ADPT, JUNO, OPK, KITE- Let me know if you have questions