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Industrials a positive but Financials lagging still a concern

1 hr to go.. A very strange tape indeed. S&P is within a few points of where it traded a week ago.. Breadth is flat.. But well more volume into Declining than advancing issues by nearly 2/1.   Industrials are one of the few bright spots.. And XLI has officially broken out of its downtrend.  However, the Equal-weighted Industrials shows NO breakout.. And still many of the top percentage weighted stocks aren't as strong.  The real worry is Financials which have now declined for the last 5 of 6 days.. And were down nearly 1% about 2 hrs ago..   Yields pulling back today which should be a great chance to sell Treasuries.. The Dollar is fractionally higher against many Developed and against Most Emerging mkt currencies.. But otherwise a very lethargic tape-   Overall it looks right to position in the Rails and various Aerospace within Industrials.. While looking to sell out of the Energy rally which looks to be near exhaustion-  The defensive yield sensitive sectors still look like groups to avoid, REITS, Utilities..  But the next 3-5 trading days will speak volumes as to what's in store between now and early to mid-June.   Equity Put/Call data had gotten compressed , and this along with a lack of breadth makes chasing this rally a concern at this stage.  2700 will continue to stand out as the Line in the Sand.  And UNDER would be a definite negative.  Above 2735 by next Wednesday looks possible to push a bit higher to 2750.  But still tough making the case for a move back to highs until Technology starts to firm a bit more.  LONGS that are attractive Technically which are new to my reports..-  MOMO, GRUB, VEEV, SCHW, WIX, TEAM, ZTO, AFSI, TBT-   Let me know if I can answer questions.  Have a good weekend

Fractional gains, but Financials still not participating, and PUT/CALL plunging

Indices up fractionally this am.   But breadth is disappointing again and most of this rally has been Energy and a few select Industrials names.  ON the plus side.  XLI looks to be breaking out above its downtrend.   However, on the flip side.. Financials is NOT participating.. nor is Technology to a large degree, so over 1/3 of the market.  Yields continuing to press higher.  And TNX now at 3.11 while commodities have stalled.  CRUDE still showing good upside progress.. while the metals have not worked since yields and the USD turned up aggressively.  As we near mid-day.  Energy the only sector up more than 1%.. while UTILITIES, REITS and TELECOM all lower, as might be expected with yields rising.    Today’s best SPX performers in VLO, M, MPC, ANDV, HAL, EOG, ESRX, DVN, PSX, CXO.. so 8 of the top 10 are energy.  While on the downside-  WYN, CSCO, IDXX, DISCA, PGR, MU, SCG.. a very mixed picture, with a blend of some Tech, Utilities and Discretionary names.     2741 will have importance for markets… but it still appears doubtful that largecaps and NDX can press higher to join the Small cap breakout we’ve seen..

 

 

S&P tries to recoup yesterday, but FInancials barely positive

S&P holding earlier gains- Key will be 2731, and above might make brief move to 2740, but unlikely that the selloff was just a one-day affair and still would be selective-and don't think today's gains accomplish that much-  YIELDS rising after early pullback and now up to 3.095%.   REITS and UTILITIES underperforming .. Builders attempting to claw back, but worth selling into as 3 month support broken yesterday for ITB-   ENERGY extending and this is still the one group to favor.. With EOG breaking out. NOV, MRO all attractive.. And OIH likely to get to 29.50-  Casino stocks also good longs here- LVS and WYNN.. And CMG within Discretionary making minor breakout as well and worth buying-  Breadth coming in roughly 2/1 positive and Materials the only sector higher by more than 1%.   Small Cap Russell 2000 is in fact breaking out to new highs, but with a plethora of Demark sells on Daily, weekly, hourly, 2 hr.. So this breakout has a higher than avg chance of stalling and potentially could prove to be false.  For now the price structure is bullish for IWM and following suit to what Small cap 600 SML did a few days ago-

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Technology looks to be stalling; Key 19-21 week cycle hits next week

 Roughly 90 min remaining,  Market remain mixed and in particular Technology taking the lead in turning down.. Which I feel is important likely pulls back after this big runup its seen-  Healthcare seeing good rebound.. But outside of this no meaningful movement one way or the other after this big run we've seen this past week-  A few cycles show the potential to peak next week and feel it should be a bit more difficult to make progress in the short run, than the breakouts would normally suggest-  Volume was particualrly light yesterday and Financials and industrials remain in relative downtrends.  Trend overall bullish but stretched, so watching closely for any evidence of markets slipping back down under 2700.  Which would be a big negative.  For now lots of resistance into next week at 2732-45 for S&P and given Volatlity's severe contraction, it makes sense to consider some hedges and cheap vol.  Tech however, which has been a big focus this week, is one that has run too far too quickly  so would rather own Gold/Silver, Energy, and fade the move in Tech into next week

Meanwhile a key 19-21 week cycle shows a possibility of a turn heading into next week which has been important in the last few years-  Most of the low to low cycles have come in right at 135-145 days - so this looks to be an important time heading into next week , and its up to the Bulls to prove that this breakout can start to gain ground.  For now, with Tech stalling, other sectors will need to step up to show strength

 

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Sectors not showing the same breakouts as the indices

Bottom line..  Tough just yet to think the market is completely out of the woods,  but it’s been right to be bullish and until trends reverse and/or Demark exhaustion reaches conclusion, this will still be the case..  We’ve seen constructive trend breakouts in SPX and in DJIA yesterday, while NASDAQ got over April highs and seems to have a bit more to go higher before it reaches technical price and time targets. 
The worries revolve around the lack of volume yesterday, while XLI and XLF remain in downtrends, both relatively and absolute.. so these have NOT broken out like the major indices.. and while TECHNOLOGY HAS broken out.. it’s showing counter-trend signs that its rally vs SPX can stall out in the next 2-3 days.  So the markets have moved a long way in a very short time.. over 5% since last Thursday as per the S&P futures bottoming out last Thursday near 10am at 2591 and now trading 2722.   VIX has plunged down to new lows and under its lower BollingerI am still bullish and do expect gains today,  but have an eye on the exits tactically from a short-term perspective given some of the sector problems and am not convinced that this move yesterday means that the worries are gone, and the time from 5/15-18 could be important timewise to Equities.   If the markets can move past 5/20 and S&P Above 2750, id have a greater amount of confidence of this move extending.  At present, trends are bullish, but it looks right to trim longs and consider adopting hedges into next week

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S&P breaks out of Trend from Late January while Small-caps Breakout also

Markets getting stretched near-term, as S&P has now risen 131 ticks since last Thursday at 10am- which is a 5% move in a WEEK !!.   but today is the First day SPX has broken out of its trend from late January, which is constructive technically-   Also.. We've seen SML- the S&P Small cap 600 index breakout today, in a very bullish pattern for this.. So IJR and/or TNA are ways to play this.   NDX looks to have about another 100 points up before much stalling. I am playing for 7075.. And interestingly enough.. CCI index - the Equal-weighted for COMMODITIES is breaking out today and has been persistently strong even with US Dollar strength of late- Look at the DBC as a way of playing this, for those with no exposure.   Overall I am playing for a move to SP-2728-30 in next day, then backing off but a good move and breakout which suggests we can strengthen further likely into 5/18-20 which I show to be important-   Bond yields likely strengthen to 3.05% before hitting a wall- and Dollar should be quick to reverse back lower.  For now.. Still early.. And GBPUSD likely gets to 1.34 and EURUSD back down under 1.18 briefly before moving up-  Let me know if you have questions.

 

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5/9 Mid-day Blog

3pm-  BLOG

One hour to go. We've seen S&P stall a bit after Noon-time minor breakout above late April highs at 2682-  this should lead up above 2700 to 2711-8 area-   NASDAQ Comp and NDX-NAZ 100 and Russell 1000 all breaking out today to highest since late March which is Bullish near-term for these.  Breadth not inspiring. Less than 2/1 positive, and 5 sectors up by more than 1%.   Energy, Industrials, Tech, Financials and Materials.. While Utes, Telecom both down and underperforming as Yields tread water near 3%.   Overall the move in US TY yields today is important and suggests some followthrough to 3.05.. And Crudes move also can allow for a bit more upside.  So the Crude and TY movement earlier were the focus, but equities now have regained some of the focus.. With QQQ breakout-   STILL early to think S&P has made larger breakout of its downtrend from January.. That level comes near 2711-9 area, and thought to be important.   But Today's rally does suggest continuation tomorrow, particularly in TECH, Industrials and should be highlighted-

Minor positive to have regained SP 2636 which has led to Squeeze

Minor positive for today to have regained 2636, so this has caused a Squeeze in the last 30 mins..  Bonds turned lower about an hour before.. and the rise in yields seems to have directly coincided with stocks following suit

Yields went from 2.90 up to 2.94.. so Equities continue to follow the move in bond yields

 

Breadth about 2/1 positive-   tech gains are a real positive for today, up more than 1%, and Financials attemtping to rebound also.. up 0.60%

I had thought markets should turn back lower.. so todays action goes against what I thought should happen, and its right to wait for prices to pullback dwon again under 2630 before trying to sell into this

 

Upside likely faces resistance near 2660-   trends still negative overall and still tough to consider today’s move to have all that much importance in the bigger scheme of things,  but it IS  a minor postiive for today, and postpones the futher decline until prices reverse this move.   OVER 2660, while not immediaetly expected.. would be a bigger positive.  Shorts  have to be at least partially covered as this might extend a bit more into Monday. And UNDER 2630 would put the decline back on the front burner.

 

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My CNBC interview from today and Link to Today's Technical webinar

My CNBC interview from an hour ago, discussing SPX breakdown, intra-day snapback, and what lies ahead

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/03/people-still-trying-to-come-to-grips-with-new-age-of-volatility-technician.html

 

Link to Today’s Technical Webinar/conference call- discussing SPX weakness.  What led to it.  What should be coming next

https://stme.in/p0sloRP6EO

 

 

S&P Daily- Sharp intra-day snapback, but not much to suggest this holds and rallies too substantially just yet.

No evidence of capitulation/fear at the lows, and would look to sell into this, into tomorrow’s NFP report, expecting pullback to 2555 into next week before lows are in

 

 

 

 

 

Financials weakness in particular has been widespread, and for equities to be bottoming.  We’d need to see this group likely showing more leadership, not just Materials.

The Tech rally is a positive but Financials are an important part of the SPX

 

S&P has violated Tue/Wed lows, keeping trend under pressure, GOLD up 1%, Breaking downtrend

S&P has just undercut the lows of the last couple days, around 10 min ago, at 2623.  This is a bearish development and likely puts further pressure on equities this am, with targets down near 4/25 lows near 2611-  While the 200-day ma is here.  It should have less and less relevance on multiple tests and expect a break through and no real support there, which could lead to the mid-2500s into next week before any bottom.  For this to be WRONG. We need to recoup 2624 literally in the next 20-30 min.. And get back up over 2636..  Europe down fractionally while Asia getting hard hit and Bond yields turning lower coinciding with stock weakness-  GOLD up 13, or 1%, and an area to favor as Dollar likely to consolidate gains and pullback in the days ahead..  DSI SENTIMENT VERY negative on Swissy, Euro in single digits and this pessimism should drive a bounce.  Aka USD pulling back in the near future

 

S&P-  HOURLY

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TNX-Rolling over in yields down to new multi-day lows is a Negative for yields/Bond positive and on any close UNDER 2.9476, should lead to additional downside for yields over the next 3-5 days which would take yields down to 2.87

 

 

 

GOLD-  Making above average gains this am on a bit of wobble in the US Dollar, though golds move looks more bullish on this breakout then the Dollar looks bearish just yet

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Long IAU, GDX and expect further outperformance out of the Metals near-term 

 

For those that care on Cryptos..  Bitcoin on the verge of a breakout.  And Ethereum is even stronger right now.  

ETHBTC--- Bullish- at Make or Break for acceleration- Up 6+% today.. this move likely represents the breakout move for Eth that should lead to more acceleration

The two arrows on the chart near the highs show prices exceeding the Ichimoku Cloud which is a positive but will also need the “lagging span” which is a backwards indicator of price lagged.. to also get up into this cloud.  The combination of these should create a decent acceleration higher, and this looks imminent.  

So this area here at .08 is quite important, and climbing over should help ETHBTC gain even more momentum.

Longs still held here. And would actually increase in the event ETHBTC can get up above .082. as this should drive prices to at least .09-.10 and potentially back to former highs initially.

 

 

 

 

 

Futures losing ground as earnings beats have NOT lifted prices out of this consolidation

Minor snapback yesterday failed to break out of this recent downward consolidation range and even better than expected earnings out of AAPL has failed to lift the NASDAQ too meaningfully with Futures now showing just a 0.20% gain in NQ, while S&P is back to unchanged.   Yields are lifting fractionally while the Dollar is giving back a bit of yesterday’s gains, while Commodities are lifting with small gains out of both WTI Crude and Gold-   Equity trends and momentum remain negative and it’s still likely that prices have a downward bias over the next week before any stabilization and lift into the latter part of May.    Early gainers today in HCHC, TRVN, SFLY, SIGA, NANO, SQNS, LITE, EVTC, JNPR, OCN, AAPL, CRUS, GRMN, CHK, CVS, SSODA, MA, MT, while on downside-  ESPR, SNAP, DBD, SSYS, YUMC, PAYC, QURE, GILD, TAP, NBR, SEDG, YUM and W

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S&P failing when attempting to get back above yesterdays late highs and turning back lower in the last couple hours.   

2631 and then 2623 are both important for today.  Under would lead down to 2609-11 in a test of 4/25 lows which is expected technically

OVER 2660 would temporarily lift prices and is what the bulls need for a bit more lift.  For today the trend seems to favor prices pulling back

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NASDAQ futures failed to get up above important 6740 area and now have begun to weaken similar to S&P

6578 up to 6623 are important for NASDAQ

 

 

 

 

DXY should begin to stall out after the last 9 of 11 days higher and minor breakout of late Feb highs resulted in real acceleration vs Pound and Yen and to a lesser extent, Euro.   Momentum overbought and the Euro in particular looks inviting to buy dips, with any DXY pullback in the next couple weeks likely to lift Commodities

 

 

 

 

Newton CryptoTechnicals 5/1/18

BTC--Break of yesterday’s early lows at 9130 is a negative for BTC, as this has also broken the triangle back to the downside.

A counter-trend bounce is underway this am, but important for this to rally back and regain what was lost and ideally get back up over 9443 which would be constructive and get this rally back on course.  Failure under 8873 would stop out longs which is just under 200 points away, and drive prices down to 8500 or lower

So the next 24-48 hours is important for this to try to rally back

 

ETHBTC-  Uptrend still intact and ETH making gains relatively to BTC this am.  We’’ve seen a bit of a sideways stalling out in the last few days.. yet the uptrend is intact and no evidence thus far either by price, or momentum of this peaking, but ETHBTC has nearly gotten to the real area of importance which is a make-or-break for this and getting above would allow for much greater acceleration.   Conversely, violating this uptrend since early April would cause its first meaningful decline in over a months’ time.  So longs still preferred, and ETHBTC nearing a key area which will either make or break this trend and we’ll know more into end of week/next week

 

ASTETH-  Similar to ETHBTC, this has slowed a bit in the last week, but uptrend still intact and provided this holds, longs are correct and its right to expect a move higher to test and break this recent consolidation since mid-month.  A mildly bullish stance is correct as prices remain trending higher.  The slowdown thus far is not too much of a concern, but pays to watch for either a move OVER .085 which would be positive, or movement down under .075. and follow either one of those moves.

 

OMGETH-  Minor break of trend from mid-March is a mild negative, and can allow for short-term weakness down to .0238-.024 which is the bigger area of importance.  The larger pattern is still bullish, so this is just a small bearish development.  We’ll need to see the extent to which this can either hold the trend from early February, or whether this starts a bigger breakdown.  For now, on a 2-3 day basis, this just looks like a minor negative as part of a bullish trend

 

XVGETH-  Verge is the only positive Crypto with a market cap over 1b  today, rising after showing signs of bottoming out in the last few days

Trends remain bullish for a further bounce in the near-term, so this looks to be one to favor in otherwise a negative environment today

The quicker this can advance in the upcoming week, the more confidence about a larger move higher.  For now. Movement up to near .015-.017 looks possible

Movement UNDER .01 not expected, but would postpone any advance

ADAETH-  Cardano still basing over last couple days but a constructive pattern and  mildly bullish stance, adding to longs over .053 which should jump start a larger move higher.   The breakout into mid-month and also late month are both constructive for ADA, and should allow for more upside in the days/weeks to come

 

BTC- Break of yesterday’s early lows at 9130 is a negative for BTC, as this has also broken the triangle back to the downside.

A counter-trend bounce is underway this am, but important for this to rally back and regain what was lost and ideally get back up over 9443 which would be constructive and get this rally back on course.  Failure under 8873 would stop out longs which is just under 200 points away, and drive prices down to 8500 or lower

So the next 24-48 hours is important for this to try to rally back

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ETHBTC-  Uptrend still intact and ETH making gains relatively to BTC this am.  We’ve seen a bit of a sideways stalling out in the last few days.. yet the uptrend is intact and no evidence thus far either by price, or momentum of this peaking, but ETHBTC has nearly gotten to the real area of importance which is a make-or-break for this and getting above would allow for much greater acceleration.   Conversely, violating this uptrend since early April would cause its first meaningful decline in over a months’ time.  So longs still preferred, and ETHBTC nearing a key area which will either make or break this trend and we’ll know more into end of week/next week

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ASTETH-  Similar to ETHBTC, this has slowed a bit in the last week, but uptrend still intact and provided this holds, longs are correct and its right to expect a move higher to test and break this recent consolidation since mid-month.  A mildly bullish stance is correct as prices remain trending higher.  The slowdown thus far is not too much of a concern, but pays to watch for either a move OVER .085 which would be positive, or movement down under .075. and follow either one of those moves.

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OMGETH-  Minor break of trend from mid-March is a mild negative, and can allow for short-term weakness down to .0238-.024 which is the bigger area of importance.  The larger pattern is still bullish, so this is just a small bearish development.  We’ll need to see the extent to which this can either hold the trend from early February, or whether this starts a bigger breakdown.  For now, on a 2-3 day basis, this just looks like a minor negative as part of a bullish trend

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XVGETH-  Verge is the only positive Crypto with a market cap over 1b  today, rising after showing signs of bottoming out in the last few days

Trends remain bullish for a further bounce in the near-term, so this looks to be one to favor in otherwise a negative environment today

The quicker this can advance in the upcoming week, the more confidence about a larger move higher.  For now. Movement up to near .015-.017 looks possible

Movement UNDER .01 not expected, but would postpone any advance

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ADAETH-  Cardano still basing over last couple days but a constructive pattern and  mildly bullish stance, adding to longs over .053 which should jump start a larger move higher.   The breakout into mid-month and also late month are both constructive for ADA, and should allow for more upside in the days/weeks to com

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday 5/1 Blog

9am Tuesday am -5/1/18

Trends likely should continue lower in equities to challenge  4/25 lows at 2611 in S&P futures. Under 2640 on an hourly close likely takes S&P down to 2633, 2620 and ultimately near 2611 which is  more important area for S&P.    Prices have grown more negative in the last 20 mins while Treasury yields have also backed off and the Dollar has hit areas of important resistance.   This should be a time to fade the Dollar’s move and buy precious metals in the next 12-24 hours,  while Crudes weakness also likely represents a buying opportunity at 67 for a rally back up to near 72.

 

 

11:30-  Tuesday am  5/1/18

 

S&P has tried to bounce a bit in the last 15 mins,  but had violated initial support and accelerated with breadth now at around 3/1 negative and volume even heavier into Down vs UP stocks at around a 4/1 ratio.  TRIN currently at 1.4-  Bonds have reversed early gains and higher, with TNX now at 2.97.  US Dollar has moved sharply higher today vs Euro .. EURUSD now under 1.20, but very stretched.  DXY should be up near key areas , but showing real strength and no evidence yet of reversing and WTI and GOLD have pulled back further. Gold down to important 1300 level-  4 sectors now down under 1%- energy, industrials, Materials and Staples, while Technology holding onto fractional gains with QRVO, SWKS, WU, INTC, TTWO MU all up over 1%..  Financials also only down 0.50%.. So the relative strength in these two.. For now, has helped market avoid a larger decline-  Overall, expect this bounce to fade and lead to addtl weakness  and 2626 important on pullback for SP Futures

Technical shorts listed in this am's piece-  GM, HOG, STX, CBS, CMCSA, VIAB, AAL, LUV, SMH, AMAT, MCHP, NTAP, IBM, BBBY, EMN, PCAR, CLVS, MNK

Of these.. I would lean on Tech stocks that are positive today.  AMAT, MCHP, NTAP..  And would still short SMH, IBM, and VIAB which is just starting to break

Monday 4/30 Blog

9 am-  MONDAY 4/30/18-  

Good am.. Sent out 2 pieces this am.. One around 530 that highlights some ETFs to consider.. And one 15 min ago showing charts of MCD, CTB, FDC, all moving premkt.  FDC making minor breakout..  CTB making big breakdown. And MCD up to resistance-   Like using gains in MCD to sell as right near prior highs-    Defensive stance in Equities overall remains prudent over next 1-2 weeks, and S&P Bounce looks vulnerable.  Overall, UNDER 2688 is bearish .. Over would be temporarily a positive-  Dollar stretching higher.. Would look to buy EURUSD, GBPUSD Tuesday or Wed on weakness. And buy GOLD into this pullback- Let me know if you have questions

 

2pm -  Monday 4/30/18-

2 hrs left in session, S&P has begun to accelerate lower a bit in the last 20 mins..  Undercutting Friday's lows.   Breadth has worsened to 3/2 negative.. Though still pretty tame.. Industrials have slipped to near -1% on the day, while Healthcare and Telecom now share that honor, and Materials close.. At -.97%.. With only Energy positive now on the session  - Utilities the top defensive group, down just fractionally.. And Financials are faring better than most sectors-  US Dollar still holding gains from earlier..  Yield curve has pulled back to prior lows.. And ongoing Bond rally from late last week, as 10yr yields are down to 2.94 and dropping..  30 yr down to 3.10-  overall 2646 has minor importance as support.. But expect todays move should begin the process of testing prior lows from last week near 2611 and below..     Would consider SMH a good short for TECH..   The Airlines- LUV, ALK, JBLU within transports as being good technical shorts..  And the Media-  VIAB, TRCO, DISH, CBS, DISCA which are all very weak-   In industrials. I like UTX, SRCL, EFX, PCAR, ITW short-  let me know if questions

 

Friday 4/27 Mid-day Blog

Friday 4/27/18

Little more than 2 hrs remaining. Equity indices still largely at levels hit 3 hrs ago after the initial pullback from the highs.  And despite the bounce from early in the week, the larger patterns remain a negative.. And earnings have largely not helped stocks to recover, nor has the prospect of geopolitical unrest thawing a bit with N Korea seeking change-   SOX and NDX patterns increasingly resemble Head and shoulders type formations with only a break of April lows to produce some outsized volatility into mid-May.  Patterns on ETFs like XLF and XLK remain difficult to embrace.. And Selectivity in this market remains important.  Bonds have inched up throughout the day today..  We're seeing commodities stabilize a bit as Dollars gains have slowed..  And Defensives gaining ground.. With Utes, Telecomm and Real estate all up 1% or greater.. While Energy, Tech leading to the downside-  Industrials and materials also with minor losses.. Yet Breadth remains positive today.. At around 3/2-  over the next couple hours..  2659 important for SPX...  NDX 6619-   Overall, this bounce stalled where it needed to keep trends still bearish from 4/18.   But still lacking on any real selloff and this remains a difficult spot at present for both bulls and bears.  Heading into today we had just 48% of all stocks above their 50-day ma.. And 52% above their 10-day.. So despite the resiliency of the indices.  And stocks like AMZN doing well.  There are quite a few NOT making gains at present.. And worth keeping an eye on stocks that line up well as fundamental and technical shorts in the event that this week’s bounce starts to fade-   Let me know if you have questions.  Otherwise.. Have a great wkd

 

Thursday mid-Afternoon Technical Developments- S&P break above 2660 has led to challenge of more important level

S&P-   Rally has gotten OVER 2660 which has brought prices up to the next key area at 2670-5. 

For the bear case.  This needs to hold.    Over 2670 would suggest further rallies into end of month before a May 1st week decline

For now, hourly charts are overbought against key downtrend resistance from midApril 18th highs

I will stick bearish , looking to sell into this.. but above 2675 would merit revisiting

Rally in DXY continuing today after just minor weakness.  Upside targets at 92-92.50 into Monday before reversing.   Gold might be weak/commods until early next week given Dollar strength

4/24 Into the Bell- Technicals- Trend Negative.. use rallies to sell

Todays about face is a real negative for the upcoming 2-3 weeks.   While a bit extended today towards the lows, its likely this will lead to a test and break of April lows in my opinion, Technically

Breadth has not been that strongly negative though at around 2/1 and volume, which had been positive up until two hours ago.  Is now negative to the tune of around 3/2 

Dollar has turned back lower, and Precious metals are bouncing.   US 10yr yields have stalled out just under 3%, but the yield curve is steepening up to 51 bps

Utilities, Telecom, REITS are the positives while Industrials, Materials down over 2%, and Energy has reversed to negative 1%, while Discretionary and TECH are both down under 1.5%.

Financials holding up a bit more positively today. Or less negatively.  But have still underperformed 

 

OVERALL, Trends which turned negative late last week, have begun to accelerate, and a defensive stance is necessary-   the area near 2600 looks important initially and then 2550-60, and would use rallies back over 2645 to sell into this, expecting we’ll see further downturn into early May

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Equities attempt to bounce, while yields back down from highs and US Dollar gains further ground- Monday Technical Video, and Charts of interest

Busiest week of earnings season, but US Equities have shown some evidence of this rally from early April peaking out and despite today’s minor bounce attempt, it should pay to be much more selective and be on the lookout for any failure in this bounce into 4/25 and reversal back lower.    Treasury yields have stalled out after their brush with 3% while the Dollar has continued to bounce, up 5 straight days and getting above earlier April highs which is coinciding with commodities backing off.   Overall, Technically its right to enter the back half of April with a bit more of a defensive stance.. looking to sell rallies and adopt hedges given Implied volatility having been cut in half over the last month, while Structural issues remain for US equity charts.. and negative weekly momentum while Semis have begun to lose favor and Financials are underperforming.

S&P Futures-  Trend turned negative late last week with break of uptrend from early April, so bounces today into Tue/Wed should be used to take profits and/or adopt hedges

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Upside resistance lies at 2684, while 2666 and then 2659 are both important being earlier overnight lows and then Friday’s lows

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Lots of focus on 10yr Treasuries as yields got to within striking distance of 3% before backing down today from earlier highs.

Spreads between German Bunds and Treasuries are likely to contract in the days/weeks ahead and German Bunds look better to sell than TY, which looks stretched after 11 of the last 16 days higher in yield terms.   The area near 3% should be very strong resistance and the combination of Demark TD SELL SETUPS in yield along with bearish TY sentiment and near-term overbought conditions for yields make this better to BUY Treasuries here, vs expecting a move over 3.05% up to 3.25%.   This area near 3% should be good resistance.  Note today’s  move in German bund yields up to .63 bps.   And expect these yield gains should continue

DXY-  US Dollar index has now been higher for 5 straight sessions, with today’s move getting up over early April highs and managing to show minor breakout above a downtrend from last Fall.

Though the trend from the Dec 2016 highs/early Jan 2017 still hits at a higher level.  Shown in RED.. near the 200-day ma for the DXY

Today’s rally is a minor positive, but will trigger counter-trend TD SEQUENTIAL sells as early as tomorrow

For now, this has not happened.. and this looks to be a counter-trend rally at a time when many have doubled down on Euro longs

Commodities backing off today on Dollar strength.. and both WTI, and Gold lower

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CRYTPOS-

Bitcoin Cash. BCCUSD- Absolutely surging this am..up over 25% and nearing prior peaks from February-Has dramatically outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the last week, so worth paying attention to

 

 

 

 

See the extent that Bitcoin Cash- BCC-  has begun to outperform Ethereum, and this relative chart shows BCCETH broke out above former highs from late March and should still allow this to outperform in the weeks ahead.  But a dramatic move today which is showing huge upside acceleration

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4/23 Mid-day Blog

2:15 pm

2 hrs to go.. NASDAQ comp and NDX have both just slid under last Friday’s lows, while S&P remains partially above.   Markets which had started out flat for most of the day have begun to turn down, and breadth shows slightly more declining than Advancing issues.   EEM also lower by .0.57% with DXY rally continuing..   Key will be ability of S&P to hold 2659, as if SPX starts to join the weakness in the NASDAQ, then markets likely will begin to accelerate into the close.    6 sectors positive, but only Healthcare and Telecomm up greater than 0.50% and no sector down more than 0.35% with Tech dragging the most with pressure yet again out of Semis, and SOX down more than 1%-  SOX by the way, has also violated April’s lows as of 2pm, so this is putting pressure on Tech at large and as a leading sector, has many concerned.. Yields fractionally higher in US.. While a larger move out of Europe with Bund and Gilt yields up more than 4% up to 8% for UK, GILT, and 10yr Bund yields.  Durables showing some pocket of strength today.. W/ HBI, UA, KORS, MAT, RL, HAS, TPR DHI, PHM all up more than 1%., whereas the Miner weakness has continued with Dollar strength.

 

SOX- HOURLY chart

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