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Minor Stabilization attempt

Minor rally attempt on Bannon news, but still largely flatlined.  Some evidence of stabilization,  but still seeing TRAN and DJIA down.. Most of Europe finished off their lows but still negative on the day and week -  Energy, Tech and Utilities making the biggest gains..  While Discretionary, Healthcare, Staples, telecom and Real estate all down-  Breadth about 3/2 positive-   Overall, today doesn't do too much to suggest market has bottomed,  but a minor positive as indices could have sold off hard given the break yesterday and ongoing indecision where not much has been resolved.   Many Sector ETFs are right down near key make-or-break levels..  XLI, XLY, so important for market to hold.. And the lack thereof would point to weakness down under 2400 into Sept.  For now, not much to go on to suggest anything more than just minor strength today.. Trends are bearish, but prices down near interesting levels on market and many sectors.. As NASDAQ has not really broken down-   Let me know if you have questions

 

 

Futures not showing much downside, and stable after Thursday

Minor Stabilization attempt by US futures after yseterday, while much of Europe plays catchup and Asia was down 1%, with NKY, HSCEI both lower by 250-300 points-  Metals jumping furthehr with big gains in Iron Ore, and Gold, Silver higher by 0.70-1%, with Gold now testing June highs-As has been written about, the near-term trend remains DOWN and the price damage yesterday in both TRAN and XLF suggests there could be addtl weakness today/Monday into next week before any rally-  Longer-term trends at this point remain intact, so this remains a short-term pullback only.  and tough to make too much of this.  However, the patterns on many US Sector ETFs ARE beginnng to show "POTENTIAL" topping formations.. for now just largely consolidation since May, but patterns look increasingly poor and toplike heading into the fall .. XLF, XLI, XLY, XLV, XLP..   so these will all have to be watched carefully-  First real area to buy dips if 2427is broken lies near 2412, and then down near 2385-90 which might be unlikely for today, but just to note-   On the flip side, UNDER 2440 keeps the trend negative and this is today's first area of PIVOT-  Premkt movers for this am:  ROST, CPN, HMY, GOGL, GPS, DRYS, higher whle FL, FINL, INFY, DE, MATX, JAZZ lower -  Let me know if you have questions

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Defensive stance seems prudent

gm-  Technical trend looks to have limited upside,   Futures are down near lows of the last 2 days with WMT early weakness putting some pressure on index futures-  UNDER 2460 should allow for S&P to pullback and test last Friday's lows, but 2430 remains the key level, which UNDER would lead to real acceleration- While not immediately expected.. OVER 2474 would be a mild positive and allow for movement up to 2480-5.    Overall, Defensive stance at this point seems prudent given larger amount of deterioration in Small caps, Mid-caps, and start of Financials rolling over after bouncing the last couple months-   For today- Jobless claims 232 v 240  Philly Fed at 18.9 v 18 expected..while industrial production out a bit later.-  S&P lower by about 0.30% and NASDAQ Futs down 0.50%, with most of Europe lower and Asia mixed.   Gold showing further gains, higher by 0.50%, while Treasuries are moderately lower-   Gains today from GST, TXMD, URI, NTNX, while on downside- WMT, LB, LAKE, DRYS, GOGL-  Let me know if you have questions

Financials downturn problematic for market

At 12 noon-  Market trading back down towards the lows of the day.. Tough to pin this on news of any sort. and as discussed,  many things were in place that suggested stocks could fall-  but SPECIFICALLY for today, we did hear rumors of a possible Gary Cohn resignation, and bond yields and stocks dropped before the rumor was denied.. and now the Barcelona incident .. but plenty with regards to both Technical reasons for concern as well as actual news as to why stocks might fall-  Breadth about 2/1 negative thus far >  Technology and Industrials have been the worst performing sectors thus far.. and ALL 11 sectors are negative with Real estate closest to positive-  Most of Europe slid further into the close from earlier minor weakness.. TRAN is one real source of weakness today that's having a detrimental effect on industrials but not as much selling out of IWM and MID as in days past-   Gold still higher by 0.50% while Crude has also turned back positive but Energy still hitting new lows, and despite oversold.. tough to buy just yet-   Overall, defensive stance still makes sense for Equities near-term as written about over the past few days-  2449.7 marked the lows of the last couple hours.. so UNDER this would drive selloff further into the close today  with important support near last Friday's lows at 2430 in S&P Futures-  For those that did NOT get the Weekly report detailing the top SHORTS to consider-  Please email me at info@newtonadvisor.com-  I will be doing a Conf Call today at 1pm to discuss the reasons for the recent stock market volatility-  https://join.startmeeting.com/info69336
 Dial-In (701) 801-1211, Access Code: 840-955-999-   And a Stock TWITS Q&A at 1:30 today-  Let me know if you have questions.  Thanks

Small cap underperformance looks to be a problem

gm-  Technically a similar picture as we've seen the last few days with early strength out of Europe, signs of recovery broadening with Italy, Netherlands and Eastern Europe.  TY Yields higher to 1-2 week highs, while Safe havens largely lower-   However, a few key changes YESTERDAY as we saw Small caps and Mid-caps underperform again dramtically after just a brief bounce-  Equal-weighted S&P vs SPX along with Equal-weighted QQQ v QQQ continuing to drop.. the latter to new lows for 2017-  the bounce over the last few days has lacked Volume and sufficient breadth to help this market truly recover back to new highs in resilient fashion and most momentum gauges continue to show negative sloping patterns while only 53% of all stocks are above their 50-day ma.. a far cry from what might be expected with prices only 1% off ALL TIME highs.  -  This breadth implosion which began in mid-July doesn't seem to be rebounding with price in the last few days, and is reason for  concern-   For today though, all eyes will be on FOMC minutes while focus turns to next week's Jackson hole meeting-  This am's data widely disappointed with housing starts well under forecast -4.8% MoM vs 0.4% expected.. and Building permits on MoM also nearly underperformed to the same extent.   -4.1% vs -2.0%-  early gainers in GOGL, URBN, PSTI, TGT, A, MBRX, EXEL, MYL, EXPR, while on downside- VIAV, NEFF, BMY and SLCA-   Let me know if you have any questions

Energy continuing to underperform.. an ongoing theme- FURTHER WEAKNESS LIKELY

We've seen a slow deterioration in the rally in the last hour, with news of Manufacturing and policy forum being disbanded, and thus far, markets had held up in pretty resilient fashion today despite the ongoing uproar up until about an hour ago..  .. but there's been a flight to safety in yields with 10yr backing off down to 2.239..  Gold up fractionally while Crude lower back down to 47 and Energy still by far the largest underperformer, down a full 1% while Financials have just turned Negative..  Only positive sectors up more than 0.50% are Materials and Real estate..  Dollar has turned negative, and NASDAQ back down to near Unchanged territory from early gains-   Next 3 hours will speak volumes as to if market can continue to make headway. but trends in Mid-caps, small-caps, have been weakening.. and keeping a close eye on Financials and Tech will be important over the next few days

S&P cracks lows of consolidation in first hour of trading

after first hour of trading we see S&P has now violated the lows of the last couple weeks which had held back on 7/27.. so anything under 2457 keeps defensive stance intact and still right to be cautious.  Breadth about 4/1 negative and seeing near 1% losses in Technology and in Financials, with all 11 sectors down, but Energy, Telecom, Staples outperforming-  Yields pulling back with stocks today as might be expected and the flight to quality trades into Yen and Gold-  4 of the top 5 losers today all retail related.. and M, KSS, SIG, TGT all down more than 3%.  On the upside-  PRGO, TRIP, BHF, RRC all higher by 2% or more and important to note that 4 of the top 10 outperformers within S&P today are Energy related

S&P Futures following suit to weakness in Europe and Asia

gm- Jobless claims at 244k v 240k expected.. PPI headline -0.1% vs 0.1% expected and Ex Food/Energy -0.1% vs 0.2%.. so both sets lighter than expected..  TNX hovering near  2.23%..down from 2.26% earlier today..and after poor 10yr auction yesterday, bonds have actually rallied but more on flight to safety with stocks pulling back-   S&P down 10 today following lower European shares along with Asia-  UKX down 1% and headed for biggest fall in 16 weeks-  Yesterday's attempted comeback at end of day seemed to hold where it needed near 2457-9 but Small-caps broke down and important to see the degree that other indices are starting to disappoint and trade lower.  S&P will continue to face important support near the lows of this range, but increasingly looks likely to break given whats happening in the rest of the world-  Overall, important to watch whats happening in TNX, USDJPY both of which have begun to turn down.. and trend in equities continues to look vulnerable-Today's premkt movers: GLPG, HDSN, PRGO, XXII, AEG, CCE, YY, AU, SSYS higher, while CBI, NSU, DDS, SYNC, MOD, DVAX, NTES, TTM, MX, ING, DB, KSS, OPK all down

Aluminum breakout important, as Metals surge continues

gm-   5 straight months of surplus from China causing ongoing strength in Metals with ALUMINUM now breaking out to new yearly highs, exceeding its own recent base, following suit to what happened with Steel, Iron ore of late-   S&P along with Bloomberg World index look to have made minor breakouts yesterday which seem to have exceeded the consolidation in the last few weeks, so it appears that broader indices are starting to follow the DJIA, not vice versa as of yesterday-   Tech will be what to watch carefully and looks to be mounting a comeback based on yesterday's rise to multi-day highs.. while Energy moving in the other direction and turning lower based on OIH, XOP closes yesterday.   -  SPX should be able to get to 2485-8, over next few days, and S&P FUTURES also above 2480 again briefly.. Friday's Inflation data seems to be what many are watching which could be the most important data point of the week.  for now, Treasuries seem to be largely range-bound while DXY giving up a bit of gains from last Friday's rise-   Near-term trend short-term bullish based on yesterday's close and won't change unless Futures close down under 2463-   Look to buy into early weakness this am, technically speaking

 

Tech gains helping S&P to join World index in pushing to multi-day highs

Minor gains in Tech and Staples today which is serving to drive the S&P with gains in TSN, HRL, KR, EL, CVS out of XLP, while seeing Technology gains from NVDA, QRVO, KLAC, LRCX all higher by 3%..  DJIA making 9th straight record closing high potentially today, but very stretched here, and NASDAQ along with EEM showing better outperformance-   On the downside-  ENERGY extending losses initially seen back last Thursday as WTI settles.. but both OIH and XOP lower by 1.50-2% on the day, while SOX snaps back to the tune of 1.4% after last Friday's loss-   Breadth about split today.. and volume equal in rising vs declining issues.   but equities seem to be stalling out despite Tech gains.. and difficult to see what can lead the market higher out of this range-  Staples and Energy the only sectors HIGHER and LOWER by greater than 0.50% respectively.. while Goldman's Short basket higher by more than 1%, so its important to note that there is some short covering ongoing today-  Metals like Steel, Iron ore showing strong gains, and Bitcoin making a big breakout back to new all-time highs.  Otherwise , most things fairly subdued today, and not much volatility in eitherTY, nor DXY which might provide much of a clue

 

Metals moving higher again w/ sharp gains in Iron Ore, Rebar

Mild gains in S&P futures along with most of Asia while Europe is lower this am, with German industrial production falling short in June and DAX leading on the downside, lower by 0.50%.  Sectorwise, travel and leisure lower in Europe being offset by Steel and Iron ore gains w/ Arcelor Mittal and Anglo American PLC higher w/ Rebar, Iron ore and Copper all higher-   S&P now largely unchanged for the past 12 trading sessions, so difficult to have much conviction on near-term direction with this ongoing consolidation w/ 2457-2480 providing the low to high range since mid-July-  Crude and Gold both lower this am.. Dollar lower vs Euro and Treasuries showing minor decline-  As written in this am's Weekly Technical Perspective-  Important to watch the divergences between DJIA w/ NASDAQ and DAX, the latter two which led this market higher and now have seemingly stalled and have underperformed of late-  Premkt gainers in MYOK, NXTM, EROS, ATHX, CLNT, COL, SPNS, MAR, MT, while on downside-  TEVA, MYL, GEMP, ZYNE-  Let me know if you have any questions

 

Trading range continuing for US indices while DJIA presses higher

2hrs to go on this Friday.. we've seen indices largely recapture early losses, but still only 2 positive sectors out of 11, with Healthcare snapping back, while Financials are fractionally positive-  Meanwhile, dismal performance in GT, MAT, SBUX, AMZN hurting Consumer Discretionary which is lower by 0.80%, while Staples also down 0.96% with big losses in MO, KMB, BF/B, CWD, CLX all lower by more than 1%-  Materials also lower by 0.66% as IP, NUE, EMN, SEE lower by 2% or more despite the drop in the US Dollar which has resulted in commodities pushing even higher, and Gold attempting minor breakout, while Crude closing in on 50, so many of the Mining/infrastructure names higher, such as CF, MOS, while NEM higher by 1.5% and LYB up 3.5%-  Overall the snapback is comforting after a time when yesterday's selloff threatened immediate followthrough, at least in NASDAQ. ..but not much change on the week from either SPX, nor NASDAQ, while DJIA back at new highs as stocks like BA, VZ, CAT, CVX, and WMT are all higher this week by 4.5% or more-  Some minor concerns heading into the final day of July next Monday and into August, but largely this is centered on Industrial sector/Transports and Technology..  Heading into next week, EURUSD looks to be very stretched, but still no evidence of turning down.. and above 1.18 has little until 1.20, so Dollar decline and Metals surge mightvery well continue into early August

 

Tech selloff, but most US indices remain intact

GDP coming in roughly inline, though prior numbers have been revised down QoQ 1.4 down to 1.2% and Core PCE from 2% to 1.8%-  Not much change in Futures after this data-  2 key themes for today-  Tech selloff continuing globally with weakness out of TenCent and Samsung coinciding with Asian weakness, while Economic Sentiment in Europe hitting 2 decade highs which is resulting in bond yields spiking hard.. and US yields following suit-   Easier to make the call for a minor selloff based on NASDAQs key reversal than S&P just yet, but still some meaningful signs of erosion in Industrials given Transports largest decline of the year.. so with VIX at record lows up until yesterday, a few signs of shakiness in the market largely based on Tech and Industrials-    S&P will need to close down under 2462 to gain acceleration to near 2385-2400 which is looking increasingly more likely in August, but will need to see S&P and DJIA join the weakness in NASDAQ.  For now, its been largely Tech.. while Financials are holding steady and could CONTINUE to given yields turning up in recent days and continuing up today-   Premkt gainers in BIDU, KOOL, SAM, FSLR, IMGN, LOGM, CY, DEO, JKS, AAL higher, while on downside-DEST, KMDA, NUVA, GT, SBUX, WWE, MBRX, WDC, X, EA, UBS and AMZN-  let me  know if you have any questions

Crude getting closer to key levels on upside, while Tech starts to wane

One hour left to go in the Trading day, Tech remains closer to its lows after reversing course shortly after 1pm and giving back nearly 1.5% in a very quick period of time. Countertrend sells were triggered early on today by both SPX and NASDAQ, but will not be confirmed until todays close.  As was talked about in today's Webinar call,  its difficult to have much of a short bias without the key reversal at the highs which we've been lacking all the way through July until today-  While overbought conditions and Transport weakness were definitely in place to suggest a selloff was near.. it was the act of selling itself which has now brought prices to multi-day lows in the last 2 hours.  If this is not erased by the close, its right to think this minor drawdown from today could extend-  Breadth is showing about a 3/2 ratio of Declining to advancing issues and similar with Volume, not outrageously bearish.  yet, TECHNOLOGY being the key sector that's making the big reversal does seem important, and if it leads other sectors to begin making similar patterns than our first meaningful downturn of the year could be upon us.   Yields and the US Dollar are both higher today, but Tech is the sole sector down more than 1%, while Telecomm is leading all sectors given VZ, T gains.  Energy has snapped back and showing +0.50% gains on the session which is a minor positive given that Crude is up over 49, but overall the move today in Tech and Industrials are what to discuss that are of concern.. and if don't recover by the close, could lead to further weakness to end the month

Mid-cap and Small cap indices pushing back to new all-time highs

Minor gains in most world indices, S&P futures inching higher ahead of Home sales and FOMC today which is largely expected to be a non-event-  World index has now been unchanged for the last 5 days while Financials have begun to show real strength again as of yesterday given the yield surge- Tech has largely stalled out, but yet not turned down just yet, while Financials have picked up in relative strength-  The US Dollar meanwhile has hit support and trying to turn higher, so the key with 3 days left in the month of July is to what extent can Financials continue to make progress with Tech also trying to participate-   Important to note- MIDCAP and SMALL CAP indices have now pushed BACK TO NEW all-time highs, which had largely been range-bound since February.  While this is indeed a positive- it happens at a time when most cycles are starting to peak out and could produce a PEAK in stocks as of Mid-August-  For now,  its right to let this range play out to see what direction we will take-  as most prices have been largely mixed for the last week and UNDER 2462 needed for a negative stance, while over 2478 would indeed be a positive-  so no strong directional bias for the next couple days into end of July until this is resolved..but watching to see how this Tech consolidation is resolved.  Premkt gainers in TTPH, DVAX, IRBT, AMD, X, EXAS, OPHT, TANH, OCUL, BA, T, LOGI, CMG, while on downside- AKAM, AMED, CGEN, OEC, SIX, MC, WYNN, SN, AMGN, LN-  Let me know if you have questions

 

Financials set to make highest monthly close since late 2007

2 hours left to go..  a few things worth noting-   Energy has rebounded sharply as have Financials and Materials- XLF set to make the highest MONTHLY close since late 2007..  XLB is back at new all-time highs. XLE is positive for the month, but still has work to do given that it's declined for the last 6 months.. Rates turning sharply higher today.. while DXY stabilizes.  this "should" be a negative for Metals.. but the Dollar has yet to show much signs of strength.  but does seem imminent for EURUSD to turn back lower within the next couple days .  Healthcare , Tech, Utilities all lower along with Real estate so breadth is around 3/2 negative..  but the key developments for today are the FINANCIALS breakout.. and rates spiking higher.. while Indices have regained early losses and for now, keeps the recent multi-day consolidation within the uptrend intact-  Goldman's Short basket up more than 2% today, indicating some of the laggards ripping and forcing short-covering.. but FCX, NEM, RRC, CAT, MCD, SNI, NFX, GPS, SIG all up more than 4% here.. while on the downside-  STX, WAT, MMM, MU, LLY, AVY, ZTS all lower by 3% or more-    Let me know if you have any questions

 

Europe down 1%, as DAX leads to the Downside

Just past Mid-day, S&P has nearly recouped all early losses... Most of Europe finished down 1% with DAX leading on the downside -1.66%.  Bonds have rallied while US Dollar has extended losses and down near 111 in USDJPY while Euro is now up to over 1.167, near the highs from 2015-  Energy trailing all other 10 sectors, down 0.75%, while Industrials 2nd worst, but down just 0.30%-  Breadth is slightly negative, but volume is down over 2/1 negative into Declining vs Advancing issues-  Overall,  despite a valiant effort in trying to move lower, it remains still difficult to make much of this 2-day move as being that negative. Tech has stalled out, but not really turned down.. which has really been limited to Industrials and Transports and would want to see S&P down under 2465 to help momentum really start to accelerate lower.  For now, Healthcare's gains this week stand out as probably the most important move among the sectors..  while the lagging of Financials and industrials look important.. but yet NEITHER has really violated important intermediate-term support-   Key gainers for today in SPX-  COF, CTAS, ETFC, MCO, FITC all higher by 2.50% or more.. while on the downside-  HBAN, HP, ISRG, FL, GE, ADI, MCHP, BWA all down more than 2.5%.   Let me know if you have any questions

Draghi provides early EURUSD rollercoaster after keeping rates intact

Eco data- 232 vs 244 k..  1977 cont claims v 1949, up a bit.. and Philly Fed- 19.5 v 23-  ECB leaving rates unchanged this am which initially caused Bund yields, and Euro to retreat..but Draghi talking up growth causing a reversal and gains now in EURO vs USD which has now reclaimed 1.1557--  US Dollar index, which had gained back losses over last couple days, has now pulled back to FLAT- S&P still fractionally positive along with most of Europe, but US indices seem to be near resistance which could result in at least a minor pullback in the days ahead after this run-  S&P Ran from 2400 to near 2475 over the first 3 weeks of the month, and now Technology has risen to test June highs and could be an important level for Tech and for NDX to stall out in the short run-   For now, the bullish TREND is intact, but overbought conditions and counter-trend signs of exhaustion while a few cycles suggesting a turn here suggest that stops be  kept on longs and its right to remain vigilant for the prospects of trend change-  Aggressive investors could look to short with 2481 stops and think S&P stalls and turns back lower-  Early earnings and premkt movers out of UNP, HPJ, AVA, SRPT, SHLD, CAMT, PII, KMI, TMUS, AVEO, MGM, NKE all higher, while on downside-   PTC, FMSA, INO, CHKP, SHW, POOL, AA, RGLS, PM all lower-  Let me know if you have questions

 

 

Markets getting stretched, nearing S&P targets at 2475

Markets yet again stretching to records with breadth on about 3/1 positive-  Given S&P's move ABOVE the range of the last 3 days, this should take at least another 3-4 days BEFORE peaking.. but S&P getting closer to more meaningful upside resistance-  VIX in particular close to setting up with BUYS which would happen after a FLUSH down under 9.51 which i suspect CAN happen into Friday/Monday- As mentioned early this am.  the move in TECH very well might be replaced by Healthcare as XLK gets up to key levels.. while XLV stretching up to new multi-day highs with very good action out of DRG and BTK, IBB_  Would favor GILD, ALXN, LH, BIIB, CELG, ABT, PFE-  Energy is today's TOP performing sector, while Healthcare and TecH both higher by more than 0.60% along with Real estate and Materials.  Only Financials, industrials and Telecomm negative-  Important and negative to see TRANSPORTS starting to weaken, and that is one bearish development in an otherwise fairly bullish tape-  RAILS and AIR starting to wane, and XLI set to break one month trend and confirm Demark sells -  So near-term, industrials can indeed weaken, and if Financials do not pick up while Tech stalls, this would be problematic and set the stage for our long awaited pullback-  For now, S&P looks to have a bit more upside to near 2475 and early at this point to sell the market, but rather, would pay close attention to the rotation and/or lack thereof

 

 

Emerging mkt rally getting stretched, while Transports roll over

Housing starts largely better across most time metrics.. S&P inching up a bit to 2461 but largely unchanged over last few days.. consolidating after last week's breakout, which is still a positive and should allow for another rally up to 2470-5 area which would be more serious resistance-  Most of Emerging mkts higher now for 8th straight day, led by china, Turkey today.  Minimal action out of USD and TY though today, some minor backing up in yields.. but important over the next few days will be action out of XLK and Technology, having rallied to right near June highs, and a level where things should stall out in the next 2-3 days into end of week -   VRTX +27.8% this am, one of the stocks listed in my Top 5 Longs/Shorts back on 1/9 (which I'm happy to send out if you havent' received-  Email me at info@newtonadvisor.com)  Other gainers- SNI, DCTH, ADTN, ALSK, FSLR, NVAX, MS and RAD-  on the downside-  NTRS, CSX, UAL, IBM and MNKD-   Let me know if i can answer any questions

Transports rolling over after break of 2 month uptrend

Transports rolling over after break of 2 month uptrend