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Mid-Day Friday Technical Update- Technical Video, Link to Yesterday's Webinar, New Buy/Sell ideas, and YOUTUBE access

Friday Mid-day Technical video-  SPX analysis, XLF and Financials relative to SPX, XLK-  5 min

https://stme.in/AjBaNoxrVB

 

Link to Yesterday’s Technical Webinar-  20 min overview of Global asset technicals

https://stme.in/KWJGLYbh4g

 

 

Attractive Buy/Sell ideas specifically based on This morning’s early movement-  which could work for the next 2-3 days:  

LONGS-  KFY, JEC, MELI, MDU, GWPH, IMMU, PCAR, ULTA, CXO, CMI

SHORTS-  UAA, C, DFS, MAT, T, SYF, WDAY, BKNG, RF, AXP

 

Stallout/reversal possible starting today/Monday-    S&P got up to resistance at 2805-2810 late last night before pulling back 10 points from overnight highs, Bond yields have been not following stocks higher and evidence of upside exhaustion in Technology,  XLK, NDX while Financials not participating-   2795 importnat in S&P Futures.. While 2770-3 is the larger area of support -  2805-2810 is still quite important for SPX near-term. -  Favor Healthcare, Energy Staples, while avoiding Financials, Technology

 

Financials attempted to snapback partially after early opening losses in WFC, C, JPM, but the group has hit new relative lows vs SPX and still one to avoid in favor of Staples, Energy and Heatlhcare

The Dollar has given back early gains, while gold is fractionally lower and Crude has moved up above $71-  10yr yields are at 2.835 while the Yield curve has flattened further down to 25bp

 

 

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S&P HOURLY chart--  Area at 2807.25 important for the next few hours today..  The early pullback found support and has bounced, so for the bulls.. getting over this 2807 and ideally over 2810 is needed, while under 2793 on the downside would likely lead down to 2770-3

 

 

 

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S&P   240 min chart-   First evidence of 4-hour charts showing exhaustion since late June,  which was confirmed this am-  Now we’ve snapped back, so the area near 2810 will be important

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XLF-  Todays early pullback to new 5-day lows is not what was needed to think Financials can turn up.   Closes down keep this trend headed lower and has potential downside into 25.75-26

 

 

 

 

 

I have Set up a YouTube Channel and invite those that enjoy Technical content to peruse and subscribe

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Have a Great weekend

Mark

Trend has improved on 1-2 day basis with gains over yesterdays highs- 2800-5 key- Thur Technical Video and 2 key charts- Webinar info

Thursday am Technical Video-  SPX structure only- 

https://stme.in/y2pOslyRmR

 

 

Near-term US Equity trend is back to Bullish with a move over yesterday’s highs, but should find solid resistance AT 2800-5

Support is 2778,  and when this is broken..  S&P pulls back to 2744-5

 

 

TECHNICAL CONF CALL/WEBINAR today

https://join.startmeeting.com/info69336

  Dial-In Number (United States): (701) 801-1211, Access Code: 840-955-999

 

 

 

 

 

 

This morning we’ve seen Futures pop back up above yesterday’s highs,  creating a minor bullish formation that bodes well for a push back to test and get slightly over Tuesday’s highs.

So the selloff thus far has been postponed, and S&P seems set for a test of Tuesdays highs

 

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S&P Daily trend has turned higher which will allow Prices to make TD SELL SETUPS most likely into tomorrow which also is a possible turn date for a high

Look to sell into strength today into tomorrow at 2800-5-  Under 2778 and the bearish trend will take over

 

 

 

 

 

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Mid-day Technical Thoughts- Video, and charts of interest

Wed mid-day Technical Video-  Showing key areas for S&P which if broken, would lead to acceleration and also what needs to be recouped to rally

https://stme.in/i456OJyECF

 

 

 

Summary-   If today’s weakness gets under 2769.. it will lead to a bit more acceleration and S&P falls to 2745 into July 13.  For now, not much sign of much weakness after 6 of last 8 days of gains.  Breadth today is barely worse than 3/2 negative and prices are still near yesterday’s lows.   So MORE needed for the bearish case.  Daily momentum still positive and prices are up from last nights’ lows.

 

Additional Long ideas outside of what was mentioned this am:   TNDM, RUN, TWTR(still no weakness after several attempts). LSCC, APC, ERX(Energy weakness overdone) LB, MNST,  CPB

Shorts:  EL, FOXA, ALK, UAL, PCAR,

 

IS today the start of the pullback?    Despite today’s selloff and understandable reasons to THINK markets are weakening for the right reasons..   Tariffs/  accelerated Trade war tensions..  otherwise.   It’s still difficult to say that technically.   While 2800 was important..  and there were some signs of breadth drying up on the early gains yesterday..   we failed to see the kind of exhaustion that would lead to a larger peak

I’m still eyeing July 13 as being important time-wise.. And had thought this would be a HIGH.   Now potentially if S&P gets down under 2769..  this will likely be a low and S&P would get to 2745 or so.   However, on every pullback attempt, fear is rising pretty quickly.   And the advance/Decline is back at new all-time highs.  So while a few stocks have produced the majority of gains for this year.  We’re still seeing other sectors come in and bail out the Tech and Financials space.   And bottom line.   IWM, SML, NDX MID back at new all-time highs and near those levels.  While NYA had made a short-term breakout in early July.  It is difficult just yet without any weakness.. to think that a large selloff is upon us.  We’ll see.  For traders.   2769 is important today.  UNDER THIS would lead to deterioration and a quick test of 2745.   Any attempt at regaining today’s early losses would also be important.   Europe right now. And Asia look like better shorts than the US. Many of the FANG stocks.  GOOGL in particular.  Still look quite strong.     For today. Both Gold and Crude

 

HOURLY S&P -   UNDER 2769 will in fact lead lower and likely to 2745-  For now. This has held .  

 

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S&P-   After 6 of 8 days of strength.  Pullback is near yesterday’s lows.  Yet breadth for now. Still not that negative.. at just -3/2 negative

We’ll need to see more to think the next couple weeks could selloff into July 27.  For now.. 2769 will be key between now and the close

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GOLD-   today’s weakness to multi-day lows suggests further pullback to 1240 again for a retest.  So the advance yet again has been postponed

Gold and gold stocks for the next 1-2 weeks likely are still under pressure. And we’ll need to see Gold stabilize a bit more

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Wed am Techincal thoughts

Video will be put out at 12 noon today

 

S&P up about 12 handles off early lows.. And difficult to make too much of this right now-Despite thinking prices yesterday were at critical resistance.   Area near 2784 initially important on rally w/ ability to get back OVER yest lows at 2787.75 in ES likely to lead back to highs-  2765 impt on downside, reached last night around 9pm in Electronic trading-  UNDER allows for deeper pullback into late Thur/Friday to 2745-  Most of Europe and Asia down over 1%.. So US futures pullback is relatively mild thus far.  US Dollar gaining ground on tariff concerns.. Gold lower fractionally,  COPPER down nearly 3% under 277.. And nearing 265 target as laid out over last few days-  Favor Staples right now and buy pullbacks in Energy-  Avoid Financials and Tech-   Given Dollar’s attempt at trying to rally.  I suspect Gold’s larger move up likely won’t happen until late July, as Dollar is taking some time to peak out and important for the Gold trade

 

 

S&P_ HOURLY

 

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S&P HOURLY-  shows prices hitting prior highs at 2800 and making mild pullback..  but tough to make too much of this given limited extent of todays’ decline

We’ll see how deep of a pullback happens, but for now, its right to consider buying pullbacks vs the 2765 area and consider that prices might gain ground which is exactly the opposite of what many are thinking as fear starts to permeate markets once again.  IF futures get back down under 2745.. then more credence can be given to the idea of a larger decline.  For now.. as discussed,   prices are well off early lows

 

 

 

Incredible the extent to which AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL have contributed to markets returns this year

Nice colorful table, courtesy of CNBC’s Hum on the Markets

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XOP, GDX breakouts worth paying attention to- Monday Mid-Day Techincal Thoughts

Near-term trend bullish, but overbought and near resistance-  No Demark sells present on most timeframes

Oil stocks and gold/Silver stocks making meaningful technical moves-  Buy XOP, GDX

Emerging markets, China turning up sharply after recent drawdown from mid-June-  Buy EEM, FXI

Good followthrough in XLI, XLV, XLE, XLK,  while XLF bouncing but not much technical progress here-   XLE with upside to 77.50-78,  XLK to 72-72.25-  XLV up to 88-88.50

Monday mid-Day Technical Video-  Focusing on S&P levels of importance, QQQ,  XOP and GDX

https://stme.in/O2JZCKinPW

Gains over the last 4 of 5 days have brought Equities up to areas that could be important based on the structure from late January with SP at 2782 up to 2788, while QQQ has resistance at 178

Bonds have sold off with yields up to 2.85% or a bit more than 1%,  and precious metals are extending gains while Energy, Industrials, and Financials are all up more than 1% today, while the Defensive Utilities and Telecom sector are both down more than 1% and Real Estate lower by 0.75%.   Volume is quite light while Breadth is showing about 2/1 positive gains.  The Dollar has firmed with the Exit of Johnson and Davis, creating more uncertainty about the path of BREXIT, but the interesting developments in recent days are the extent to which Financials and Industrials have attempted to snapback-   (Industirals in better shape than Financials) while Treasury yields have not gained enough ground to think rates should move straight higher, so until/unless rates get over 2.90%.. its still right to think of this as a bounce to buy treasuries for a move down to 2.73-6%

 

S&P challenging important trend from late January

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XOP-   A very constructive move out of XOP today, despite oil being lower while XLE and OIH also making similar, but not as bullish movement this am

While OIH up 2.34%, XOP up a lesser 1.3% and XLE up 1.11%.   XOP stands out as being the most attractive to own technically

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GDX higher but off earlier lows as Dollar has gained ground on GBPUSD pullback on May cabinet resignations.  Good to buy dips for short-term move up to 23.50

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Bounce in US Dollar not meaningful at this time.  Remains trending down and this am’s gains likely lead to selling in days ahead.

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Watch for any break of trend which would change this trend to near-term  bullish, which for now is premature

XLF_  Financials bounce making good technical progress.. yet it’s not able to get back above important resistance, and feel that XLF remains one of the weaker of the sectors and right to use bounces to sell into this and/or consider this a group to avoid

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Market resilient thus far following Tariffs, but bond yields slipping with US Dollar- 2731, 2747 both key for S&P_ Friday am Technical Video, link to yesterday's Webinar- Charts of importance

Friday am Technical Video

https://stme.in/yLB6QQnCnj

 

 

Link to Yesterday’s Technical Webinar

https://stme.in/ZcAsX0tbnS

 

 

S&P-  Above 2747 is a minor positive that leads to 2754, 2758-60,   UNDER 2747(CURRENT LEVELS) remains neutral, and under 2731 overnight lows is a mild negative with breaks of yesterday’s lows at 2712 being a larger negative

 

Risk assets holding up thus far in a far more resilient manner than might have been expected given Tariff announcements.   We’ve seen US equity futures fall from overnight highs after having tested key resistance again (2747) and failed, and S&P dropped 15 handles, but just in the last hour have moved back to positive territory, while China has rebounded in a case of Sell the rumor, buy the news.   Bonds have rallied and the US Dollar has dropped .   S&P now at 2742 lies just below the key area of importance, and above 2747 would definitely allow for at least a minor gain today.    The key will be to watch the participation and what rallies sectorwise to help index gains.  Yesterday’s breadth finished at a more impressive level than seen in recent weeks, but trend remain negative in Tech and Financials and 10yryields still look likely to fall further as the yield curve flattens out dramatically -  (Down to 27.6 bps yesterday)-   While trends have been NEUTRAL since late June in S&P,  momentum has gotten worse on this stalling out, so some evidence of broad-based participation will be necessary for any sort of optimism, or falling back under 2712 which would also give some clues.  FAVOR HEALTHCARE over Tech or Financials near-term

Premkt gainers in ANW, BIIB, ITUS, AVXL, DRYS, CLDR, and on downside-  PSMT, GCI, RGLS, CVRS, EKSO, IQ, HUYA

 

 

 

 

S&P-  prices have slowly backed off lower after having risen post market yesterday right up to 2747 and then peaked near 1am after nothing happened to prevent the Tariffs from taking effect

S&P has lost 15 points from overnight highs after having tested key levels

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China’s Shanghai Comp however, rose after tariffs were announced and up 0.50% at 2747 erasing all earlier losses.  Daily charts show the extent of this years losses, but we’re now seeing positive momentum divergence and counter-trend Buys emerging, so this might allow for at least a temporary bounce

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AUDUSD-  Aussie Dollar has begun to rally in the last couple hours,  moving to the highest since mid-June, in a move that looks to extend near-term after recent stabilization efforts

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Thurs am Technical Video, TODAY TECHNICAL WEBINAR INFO.. S&P , Europe spiking, but trends intact- Dollar weakening

Thursday am Technical Video

https://stme.in/gE46BMd2ep

 

 

 

Equity futures higher by nearly 0.75% this am while Europe up by nearly 1.5% and Asia lower.  However, trends remain lower for Europe and US and largely NEUTRAL for US indices with prices largely unchanged from the last week-  Bond yields pressing higher while US Dollar down over .50, a large move this am with both Euro and Pound.   KEY news in the last 24 hours centered on ECB members saying hikes might come earlier than next December which is what market had priced in, as Draghi set to step down next October.. so very well could see Rates hiked in Sept or Oct ahead of schedule to help Draghi reverse rates to end his tenure

This Dollar decline is helping Emerging mkt currencies stage a larger than avg bounce when looking at Turkish Lira, Hungarian Forint, S African Rand, and Polish Zloty and further Dollar weakness in the days ahead looks likely and might help this bounce extend more into mid-month in Emerging markets overall after recent weakness

Early gainers in FCAU, ISCA, HK, AXON, FTR, HMNY, HEAR, MU, ALV, PX, GERN, NOG, GM, VNE, BJ, RACE, AVXL, LITE, TEUM, BBVA, AU while on downside:  ZYNE, AMSC, CLNE, VKTX, SNE, INFY, TTM, BLRX

 

Today’s Technical Webinar info:

Today 1pm EST- https://join.startmeeting.com/info69336

  Dial-In Number (United States): (701) 801-1211, Access Code: 840-955-999

 

S&P’s hourly chart showing the rangebound nature of the last week.  And while today’s sharp premkt gains have largely recouped Tuesday’s weakness, the broader channel remains NEUTRAL from June 25th

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Key resistance lie s at 2747, which marked peaks in S&P on Tuesday, last Friday, and last Wednesday

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EURUSD gains this am look likely to extend, given the breakout above the minor downtrend from April as well as prior highs

This should allow for the start of a larger bounce in the Euro, and the Dollar weakness very well could affect EM positively also in the days ahead

 

 

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COPPER continuing to drop, and has accelerated further under 2.86 after its break of former lows-  Given the break both of the last few months lows and larger 2-year uptrend from 2016, this looks to extend further

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Stock Futures down to near Lows of recent range- 2693 impt- Monday am Technical Video, and Charts of interest

Monday am Technical Video

https://stme.in/664NrbcgtW

 

 

Stocks and bond yields lower, weakness in Europe and Asia, with Japan, S Korea and China benchmarks weakening, Miners the biggest laggards in Europe and both WTI and Gold are lower also. Casino stocks looking weak early on for US Markets.. In other markets,  Cryptocurrencies showing their first evidence of trying to bottom out in over a month-   Premkt movers in ADMP, FBIO, BLFS, CGEN, VMW, TRXC, CNAT,  TSLA, GERN, HMY, UMC while on downside-  MDXG, HMNY, NVTR, GEMP, LVS, CCRC, WYNN, ALV, AES, XCRA, FTI, SOGO, MLCO, HMI, HTHT, BZUN

 

Trend lower from mid-June but evidence of stabilization attempt over the last week-  S&P’s overnight weakness has followed through on late Friday weakness, but at current levels , prices lie near the lows of its range, just above Support lows that have been in place in the last week.   From a Risk/reward standpoint, owning S&P at 2705 with stops at 2693 and targets up near 2747 and then 2770 makes sense given the uptick in fear last week and traditionally bullish seasonal tendencies in the first part of the month-  UNDER 2693, however, puts the threat of a larger selloff very much on the front burner.. so This level will have some importance

 

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USDCAD-  Canadian Dollar decline began in earnest about a month ago  (shown here as the popular USDCAD cross)

And Dollar broke out vs the Canadian Dollar in early June above nearly a 2 year downtrend.. a meaningful move.

Now we’ve seen some backing and filling in the last week.  The broader trend has grown more positive for USDCAD, thinking that Canadian Dollar decline continues as Trade war/tariffs loom

 

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Dollar’s gains this am help it from breaking down right away, but trends have begun to wane a bit momentum wise after the Bloomberg Dollar index tested prior highs

Important to watch for when this either breaks this uptrend (which looks more likely ) or exceeds last week’s highs.   Both Canadian Dollar and Mexican peso have weakened meaningful lately while Venezuela ‘s Bolivar down about 16% as its freefall continues.  

 

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Cryptocurrencies trying to bottom out as July gets underway-

Bitcoin Cash-  For those with any interest in Cryptos these days, we’re seeing the first real sign of this trying to bottom out which happened over the weekend

Evidence of exhaustion per counter-trend indicators and could allow for a decent rally at a time when most risk assets have entered a new realm of volatlity

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Best trading day in 3 weeks, to help Month, Quarter end on good note

Markets still trading in upper quartile of today's range despite a fractional Give-back-  Set to have the best trading day of the pats 3 weeks to end the month and quarter on a moderately bullish note, despite this being a DOWN week-   Defensive issues have outperformed this week, and S&P's move today breaks the mild downtrend from 6/21 which is a positive in the near-term heading into 2H and the month of July-  All 11 sectors are in positive territory today, being led by Energy, Industrials, and Materials, and evidence of the US Dollar turning down a bit more forcibly is helping the Metals and EM to stage a bounce-   Overall, Additional near-term progress looks likely into early July..  And S&P 2747 will remain an area that needs to be surpassed to give conviction of a larger rally-  but some minor reasons for optimism over the next week given today's stabilization in Industrials, materials and some good progress in recent weeks in many healthcare names starting to rebound-  Financials and Tech will be a work in progress after their recent pullbacks, so difficult to have too much conviction there just yet.  But signs of fear having increased a bit in recent days was encouraging to try to buy dips from mid-June, thinking that the recent cyclical botttom that's occurred over the last few months might happen yet again this month, leading higher into the new month.    FAVOR Industrials, Transports, healthcare, Gold, silver, EM, EURUSD.. But the patterns in USDJPY, USDCHF arguably aren't too negative.. And Canadian Dollar's larger breakdown in recent weeks looks important vs USD-

 Gold stocks showing nice bounce and above 22.75 should begin an even larger rally

Gold stocks showing nice bounce and above 22.75 should begin an even larger rally

Bounce encouraging, but much more to do- Dollar weakening- EM Firming - FRIDAY AM TECHNICAL VIDEO, Link to yesterday's Webinar

Friday am Technical Video

https://stme.in/Ct8AZH2Tsn

 

 

Yesterday’s Webinar-  LINK to Technical Call

https://stme.in/x0uJXaiYRd

 

 

Some credible reasons to think today’s Equity bounce might be the start of a rally higher into end of Quarter/July 4 holiday, but given the negative trend from mid-June.. its tough making too much of this right now and until the market shows more progress and getting up above 2747 at a minimum for S&P-   There are reasons, cyclical, structural, and based on a gradual waning in momentum, to expect the market could still be weak in July.-   The trend remains negative from mid-June, but as relayed in this am’s Morning Technical Comment.. its right to be bullish into early July given reasons such as seasonality, uptick in fear and some evidence of a few sectors having shown evidence of reaching support-    Long bias, with resistance 2747, and over near 2779-80-  On the downside support at 2714-6-  Under would be problematic for a retest.... but not expected today

 

Near-term, we’ve seen a real surge in Treasuries in the last week.. and bond yield charts don’t look that great.. as the yield curve drops to near 31 bps-  ((High Yield seeing a very strong start in Cash this am, FYI) 

EEM and Metals have reached areas of importance and could begin to rally, but this depends on the USD rolling over.. which we’ve begun to see this am (but more is needed).   The technical damage seen in Technology and Financials hasn’t been completely recouped by 1 day’s rally nor will it on a rally today.  So both of these sectors need to be watched carefully.   However, charts of Transports/Industrials, Materials all look to bounce.. while many of the Defensive sectors also show good strength-  Utes, REITS  (counter-trend moves, but still ongoing)    For now, into July, I like covering shorts and expecting more on the upside given the seasonality and minor uptick in Fear gauges-   Premkt gainers this am:   GEMP, DERM, XLRN, CLDC, ACAD, NKE, VRTX, OCUL, KBH, TRVN, AVEO, INO, ASNS, DSPG, GMS, GERN, HMNY, DRYS, WFC, VKTX, while on downside-   PFIE, TRXC, STZ, GLPG, CBL, XRF

 

 

 

S&P making good progress this am in getting back up above 2730-  Both 2737 and 2747 are important for different reasons, but its thought that markets should turn higher into July

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DXY-  Dollar starting to slow in its recent rally attempt.  We can see momentum making lower highs-  While more needs to be done to think an official peak out is happening.

Given the signals right now in EEM, Gold, China,  its thought that the US Dollar should begin to peak out and turn lower, giving rise to a bounce in Metals and EM

 

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EEM-   Momentum has gotten stretched and EEM has shown some signs of exhaustion. So expect we could see a snapback in the Emerging mkts

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key Area for S&P- 2700, under leads to 2683 quickly- Thur am Video, Link to Real vision, Webinar info

Friday am Technical Video, discussing SPX, YIELDS

https://stme.in/DUKv7rQgFY

 

Real Vision Interview.. talking Markets from earlier in the week and some reasons for concern-  and Healthcare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPKGPXYjebc&feature=youtu.be

 

Today’s Webinar info

Technical Analysis Video Webinar, 15 mins.  Today 1pm EST- https://join.startmeeting.com/info69336

  Dial-In Number (United States): (701) 801-1211, Access Code: 840-955-999

 

 

Trends negative and likely to pullback to 2683 before any real support-   Undercutting 2700 from earlier in the week is a negative.   We discussed earlier this am in the Morning piece the signs of positive divergence, and initial evidence of fear rising.. but we’ll need to see more evidence of Equity Put/call ratio getting above 1..  a HIGH TRIN reading with outsized volume into DOWN vs UP-  This month is playing out nearly exactly like the last 4 months.. early month low, mid-month peak and late month low, but this go around, we have Treasuries staging a pretty big rally and yields have undercut weekly lows and seem poised to move lower.

Watch Financials and Tech, these are the groups which comprise over 40% of the market.  For Stocks to work.. these need to stabilize.  And now that the trend has turned more sharply negative in the near-term, we’ll need to see signs of fear escalate.  But buying this dip into end of quarter on Friday ahead of the July 4 holiday makes sense given some positive divergences.  S&P just needs to get a bit lower today into tomorrow

 

 

 

Initial support near 2683-5-  To be constructive,  S&P will need to recoup 2700 at a minimum

 

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CREDIT finally becoming an issue?  We’re seeing High Yield OAS spread move up above June highs after successively higher lows

Cash indices gapped lower this am..  so initial evidence of Credit spreads starting to widen out is present which hasn’t really been seen this year all that much

But now patterns are growing more bullish on these High Yield spreads , which could be a problem for July

 

 

 

 

 

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Breadth and TY Yield Non-confirmation gave sufficient early clues today

Not an encouraging effort as early breakout attempts failed, making an UPSIDE DOWN V shaped severe pullback to near key 2700-5 lows of this recent pattern.  Bond yields were the initial culprit, and the breakdown in Yields resulted in Financials following suit, while Technology also weakened, with Semis providing the non-confirmation there, with a failure to also make any meaningful headway.  Breadth had lagged during the entire am on rallies,  but went from 3/2 positive, down to -2.5/1 negative by the close.  while Energy was a Safe haven, it was just tough trusting the initial pop in Industrials with the rest of the market not really paying attention.  Overall, the wave structure seems to suggest a final pullback into end of month, and with Fear gauges now rising and evidence of hourly positive divergence, this pullback very well could end like others have this year, bottoming out in the next 3-5 days to start the new month and Quarter, and a mild rally attempt into and slightly beyond the holiday before selling pressure again come mid-month.  We'll simply need to see some evidence of more sectors starting to stabilize to have much confidence in stocks here.  Industrials, Transports both look close, as do Materials, while Technology and Financials still look like a source of weakness between now and end of week-  Gold meanwhile has arrived at nearly the perfect area of trading support, and is now interesting again to buy dips after this 7% 100 point pullback from the recent highs.  One should look here near 1240-55 in the next 2-3 days for possible signs of this pullback holding and turning back higher.  

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S&P snapping back after retest of Mon Lows- Wed am Technical Video- Charts showing key areas of importance

Wed am Technical Video

https://stme.in/NcemqfHjZN

 

 

S&P now up 26 handles from 4 hours ago back to positive territory, as Retest of Mon lows reversed and now up to near yesterday's highs- Area at 2735-7 will have significance, and over this on a close today would go a

long ways towards thinking a successful retest has been made and markets can potentially rally into early July- Yields have bounced to 2.87 from earlier breakdown -   US Dollar also gaining ground, WTI crude higher by 1%..  Gold flat..   Durable goods expecting -1%..  and at -0.6%. a bit better ..   Cap Goods orders Nondefense Ex  whiffed at -0.2% vs 0.5%... though positive revision from 1% to 2.3%.   so Net-Net, this is a positive

Early gainers in CARA, CLPS, SCYX, WWE, DAC, ACRX, I, WTI, GALT, MDCO, GIS, XNET, CSII..   Decliners in AQXP, PTIE, DRRX, CLDC, CAG, GBT, PF, SBGL, AU

 

S&P- Trend will remain negative UNTIL 2737 can be exceeded for S&P..   and Yields and banks still breaking down.. so we’ll need to see some further followthrough today into tomorrow to think any sort of low is at hand

 

S&P- Hourly charts-  For today.   2735-7 will continue to have importance..   Over on a close would be significant technically in breaking out above prior highs from yesterday along with the minor downtrend.. so this would be a positive near-term.   2747 has further importance

 

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Yields have also trended lower over the last few days and now today’s bounce up to near key levels but not over

2.88% important for 10yr TY

 

 

DXY- Rally back in USD along with both Stocks and Yields

 

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Bond yields not following Stock breakout attempt a warning, while Tech also quite weak

S&P got to 2747.. Now backed down to near unchanged.  Yields never led/and/or Followed stocks higher on the bounce and the breadth has been very marginally positive at best-  Financials weak and this continues to be an area to short into and avoid while attempting to buy dips in Industrials-  KRE has BROKEN yesterday's lows and mid-May lows along with entire uptrend from last Sept. KBE also extending lower after trend break-  while XOP and OIH have surged this am.  So a very difficult tape with many moving parts-  Right to be long Energy-XOP, OIH and Industrials-XLI, Healthcare- XLV.. But short or avoid Financials, XLF/KBE/KRE and also short TECHNOLOGY-  XLK

 KRE has violated trend similar to KBE a few days ago-  Additional weakness likely

KRE has violated trend similar to KBE a few days ago-  Additional weakness likely

GE- Join the Rally, or Fade? WHATS NEEDED TO BE LONG GE, TECHNICALLY..

GE has been tough to fight.   Were today’s announcements significant in thinking a low is possibly at hand?  Given the psychologically important Kickout of the DJIA after 100 years, sentiment simply couldn’t get much worse, and it’s been difficult to be long, as GE has been cut in half just from last Summer alone.

 

Technically for me, it’s still a bit early.  But OVER 14.14.. or about .37 cents away.. particularly by end of week.. would lead to followthrough and would be right to BUY this stock given a long-term trend breakout and confirmation of both weekly and monthly demark exhaustion counts.

 

Momentum has turned positive on weekly charts and showed bullish divergence on the most recent dip last week to test prior lows-  Momentum has stabilized a bit.. so this has a few other things going for it, despite still trending sharply lower since last year.   The break of the downtrend will be the first real convincing sign.  From a risk/reward perspective however, using the most recent lows as a STOP, or 12.61, there are ample reasons given the recent stabilization to give this a shot for those that like appealing risk/rewards..  Yet for those waiting for the real technical evidence..  it’s still a bit premature.

GE-  WEEKLY-    Chart has intermediate-term trendline resistance from last Summer intersecting 14.14, and would use a move OVER the highs of 2 weeks ago as a confirmed breakout

Note, this would also confirm TD WEEKLY BUYS based on TD SEQUENTIAL. Which have proven difficult to buy into on the way down

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ABOVE 14.11 by the end of June would confirm TD MONTHLY COMBO buys – 13..     Note, a similar but opposite signal appeared right at the highs,  so this would be important if confirmed and would definitely suggest a bottoming process had started on a long-term view.

 

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DAILY GE charts have NOT broken out either on a larger scale, but just a minor few week breakout.

Its thought that 14.14 and then 14.60 are both important.  Above should lead to a fairly large move to 16.

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Bounce needs to recoup 2747 to think lows are in. For now.. S&P has resistance 2735, 2747. 2714 important on downside- TUESDAY AM TECHNICAL VIDEO

Tuesday am Technical Video-  S&P STRUCTURE and GOLD

https://stme.in/Vsd6xnZ3L5

 

 

Trends remain negative near-term and difficult to call any sort of low at hand until S&P gets up ABOVE 2747,  and initially last week’s 2735 that was broken will have importance, structurally.  On the downside, earlier 2714 is important.. under leads to a test and likely break of yesterday’s 2700, with ultimate targets on this first pullback from mid-June near 2683-5 for S&P Sept futures.

 

(Both of these Resistance areas are highlighted below)  Technically there should be an above average likelihood of some stabilization to this pullback in the next 1-2 days that drives a rally into theJuly 4 holiday, thinking that Industrials, Materials and Financials have gotten sufficiently washed out in the very short-term.   The Tech snapback today thus far can’t be given too much credence as being all that meaningful and most charts still show Tech to have a chance to weaken further over the next few days.   Gold is weakening today but is now into a BUY ZONE of support and would look to buy Gold between 1240-1255 into end of week-  Fractional weakness in DXY today while very little change in Treasuries

 

S&P- HOURLY

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S&P-  As mentioned,  prices have violated support and pulled back to near 38.2% Fib retrace of the prior move higher from early April

Demark counter-trend exhaustion is NOT yet in place for S&P, so one final pullback could be possible..  (and from an Elliott standpoint this would create 5 waves down from mid-June. (Breaking yest lows causes a buying oppty near 2683-5)

However, a move straight up over 2747 would give conviction that this selloff is over for now.  So those are the key areas to watch.   2747. And 2700 and trend Still negative for now

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Stabilization in Industrials, Materials a positive, but KBE breakdown is NOT

Just after mid-day, S&P getting up to what will be its first important area on this bounce-  2735 up to 2737 for this afternoon-   Above 2737 would be a meaningful development that leads to 2747-  Breadth thus far pretty lackluster at 2/1.. And while Tech is snapping back and Energy to a minor extent.  Financials are not. And we're seeing BREAKDOWNS of the minor trend for KBE with KRE on the verge-  WTI $2 gains are much more impresssive than what we're seeing in OIH.. Or XLE for that matter. And it pays to be long in XOP if you're going to play this group.  But todays move is largley the laggards.   CXO, EOG, XEC.. So while Energy is up 1%. Its misleading, as HAL is lower on the day-   but XLI, XLB and XLF have all shown DAILY exhasution in the last 24 hours.. With TRAN on deck by Wed potentailly.  So these parts of the market do look to be stabilizing (not as much Financials) but the trend in Tech clearly looks much worse and this bounce near-term.. 24-48 hours, likely something to sell into-   Gold close to turning back higher after getting down to 1240-55 zone of support.  As per S&P. As mentioned earlier.  Trend will be negative until/unless 2747 exceeded,  so this first bounce should be nearing important levels

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S&P with initial support 2735, and max of 2709 for this week- Buy Healthcare, and Gold.. look to avoid Technology, Industrials, Financials - Monday am Technical Video

Monday am Technical Video-  S&P, SX5E, XLI, XLV-  

https://stme.in/lba4GSWICQ

 

 

Technical Webinar from last THURSDAY-  discussing global asset technicals.. stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities

https://stme.in/y87RQhYBKd

 

 

 

Final week of Q2,   S&P weak this am and has fallen down to test the area near Thur/Friday lows of last week.   Europe down 1.5%, while Asia also lower

Trends have been mildly negative since mid-June, yet still fairly resilient given no real breakdown thus far, despite some real weakness in Industirals and Materials stocks

Key for this week will be the ability to hold 2735 near last week’s lows for S&P, while 2760 is the key level on the upside-   As written in Weekly report.. Expect first couple days of this week could prove negative, before a seasonal low takes hold and stocks rally into end of week

Early gainers in CPB, HMNY, FCEL, DRYS, FSLR, MNKD, MBT, while on downside- CASI, AXON, SMAR, NTLA, FRO, ATI, ZUO, MU, KR, INTC, FTI, BOX, KMX, COG, BHP, BIDU, ZTO, CS

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S&P-  Hourly charts show this churning over the last few weeks and not much net change.. but the area near 2735-45 stands out as having importance for S&P

So last week’s lows, shown near this flat White line.. at 2735.. will be support for the next few days on weakness-  UNDER this points to 2709 while movement above 2760 initially important

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Industrials should be due for a final pullback to under last week’s lows, but this is likely to bring about a chance to buy this dip in the short run, for a seasonal bounce head of the Holiday before additional weakness

Any pullback under 72.11 down to 71 should be an excellent area to cover shorts in Industrials and think that lows are near

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GOLD-  we’re getting very close again to a time when Gold should start to turn higher in its seasonal bounce, and Charts from 2013 show the area from 1240-1265 as being an excellent risk/reward to buy Gold in the coming days on any weakness after this dropped nearly $100 over the last few months.   The bullish pattern has not shown sufficient trend damage to think Golds structure has turned intermediate-term bearish, but this neutral structure over the last 5 years is actually a bullish base which should give way to prices turning back higher and challenging this key 1370 area.

Given that the Dollar is starting to peak out while yields have continued lower recently on the long end, we should be getting close to a time that Gold turns back higher

Seasonality and sentiment both back up this technical argument 

 

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Snapback won't turn S&P bullish until prices get over 2785 and DJIA still vulnerable heading into next week- Friday am Technical Video and link to yesterday's webinar

Friday am Technical Video- 5 min, S&P, DJIA, Crude

https://stme.in/nPbJSLYq3k

 

 

Link to Thursday’s Technical Webinar-  20 min overview on S&P, TNX, DXY, Sectors, commodities, currencies and Treasuries

https://stme.in/y87RQhYBKd

 

Despite early day bounce today, Trend won’t turn positive until S&P gets over 2785..  and bounce still susceptible to failure with particularly the DJIA likely weaker into early next week before any low at hand.  For now, DJIA trying to avoid its worst 9 day pullback since 1978 while S&P even on today’s bounce is only within 1 point of where we closed on Tuesday.  So while the range is big..  2735-45 important as support.. and 2785 resistance given the multiple days of churning this week-  Crude extending.. Dollar peaking out. Rates just fractionally higher

 

Early gains in US equity futures and most of Europe, Asia as early week trade tensions now giving way to US attempts to reach out to China to restart trade talks before Trump’s tariffs come into effect next month.

Positive Eurozone data on manufacturing and services data beat analysts expectations, while OPEC striking last minute output deal raising Crude this am and both WTI and Brent higher by 2.3%

DJIA striving to avoid its first 9 day loss in nearly 40 years since 1978 while this week overall for US indices will still turn in worst week since March.   But DJIA -2.8% loss much different than NASDAQs -0.62% loss which is far milder, but Tech still down -1.4% for the last 5 days.. but Materials, Industirals have both returned close to -4% or greater.. so some evidence of these sectors stabilizing is a must to have confidence about a rally into end of Quarter

 

S&P Hourly-  Snapback from yesterday’s decline, but despite the swings, prices are just 1 tick away from where S&P closed on Tuesday

Trends remain near-term mixed, but arguably still negative into early next week, and bounce won’t help to drive trends much higher until/unless prices can get above yesterday’s highs-2785,   So some work needs to be done.    Downside support near 2735-45 with a maximum downside area at 2709 to buy dips

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S&P Daily chart shows the extent of most of this week’s churning and despite the huge decline in DJIA and sectors like Industrials, Materials.  Not much change for the broader S&P

 

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DJIA trend has been far worse than whats seen in NASDAQ and SPX-    Despite today’s bounce its likely that DJIA goes a bit lower into early next week

 

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WTI bouncing above last week’s highs.  A minor positive for price and today’s gains should help pave way for additional near-term bounce up to 70-71

Ability to hold gains above 70 will be key.. and minor dips should be buyable

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A Choppy, lifeless week, though Sector rotation provided some clues

90 min left, S&P still within 1 tick of closing levels from last Tuesday.- NDX right near 6/6 close... And a challenging week to make money, with Financials and tech both down 1%, and Materials and Industrials even worse -2-3%.  while the Defensive groups have led all week- Utilities, Real estate, Staples- Todays snapback in Energy, helping this group to finish 3rd in the last 5 days.. But tough to see much rally with Financials and Tech both down.. And Retail also showing some weakness after XRT finding strong resistance near 2015 highs-   Overall, trend still arguably lower from mid-June and many patterns seem to require a final pullback under this weeks lows to complete exhaustion counts-  With no sector standing up to take the lead, the market remains muddled.. Breadth about 2/1 positive, but still a very choppy few days and not a lot of conviction that todays bounce is anything more than energy related and a relief rally in Materials with the Dollar beginning to pullback for its 2nd straight day now.   Heading into next week.  The stabilization in the last few days will make any pullback buyable into Tues/Wed.. And Still insufficient weakness in Tech to think the market is rolling over.. While Financials and Industrials look close to support and turning back higher into July

 Aussie Dollar gave some evidence of bottoming out, as DXY rolling over continued Friday

Aussie Dollar gave some evidence of bottoming out, as DXY rolling over continued Friday